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BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2023 Week 15 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Dec. 4, 2023, 3:30 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Clemson dropped out. For this poll I made fewer manual adjustments compared to last week - the biggest change from the model output was I forced P5 conference champs to the top 5 and then let the model rank them.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines no change according to model, forced into top 5 because conference champ
2 Alabama Crimson Tide -2 according to model, forced into top 5 because conference champ
3 Texas Longhorns -1 according to model, forced into top 5 because conference champ
4 Florida State Seminoles -1 according to model, forced into top 5 because conference champ
5 Washington Huskies -1 according to model, forced into top 5 because conference champ
6 Oregon Ducks no change (bumped down by P5 champs)
7 Ohio State Buckeyes no change (bumped down by P5 champs)
8 Georgia Bulldogs -1 (bumped down by P5 champs)
9 Oklahoma Sooners +3 (bumped down by P5 champs)
10 LSU Tigers no change
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1
12 Penn State Nittany Lions +2
13 SMU Mustangs +1
14 Missouri Tigers +1
15 Arizona Wildcats no change
16 Louisville Cardinals -1
17 Ole Miss Rebels +1
18 Troy Trojans -1
19 Tennessee Volunteers -1
20 Kansas State Wildcats +1, moved down because 4 losses
21 Oregon State Beavers -1
22 Utah Utes no change
23 Boise State Broncos +64 (!!!!), model really didn't expect them to beat UNLV
24 Kansas Jayhawks -1
25 James Madison Dukes -1

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