Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 5, 2023, 3:06 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	3.29
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	3.19
3	Michigan Wolverines	3.11
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.09
5	Utah Utes	2.99
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	2.98
7	Tennessee Volunteers	2.95
8	Oregon Ducks	2.82
9	USC Trojans	2.80
10	Washington Huskies	2.80
11	Oregon State Beavers	2.79
12	Florida State Seminoles	2.75
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.67
14	UCLA Bruins	2.55
15	Texas Longhorns	2.55
16	Kansas State Wildcats	2.55
17	Minnesota Golden Gophers	2.54
18	Ole Miss Rebels	2.51
19	Mississippi State Bulldogs	2.50
20	LSU Tigers	2.47
21	Wisconsin Badgers	2.45
22	Oklahoma Sooners	2.44
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	2.43
24	Washington State Cougars	2.43
25	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.43

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.45
3	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
5	Utah Utes	0.90
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
7	Tennessee Volunteers	0.22
8	Oregon Ducks	0.36
9	USC Trojans	0.00
10	Washington Huskies	0.00
11	Oregon State Beavers	0.70
12	Florida State Seminoles	-2.05
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
14	UCLA Bruins	5.23
15	Texas Longhorns	0.00
16	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
17	Minnesota Golden Gophers	7.62
18	Ole Miss Rebels	0.03
19	Mississippi State Bulldogs	5.62
20	LSU Tigers	0.00
21	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
22	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.09
23	Illinois Fighting Illini	2.13
24	Washington State Cougars	0.91
25	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
North Carolina Tar Heels	1.45
Duke Blue Devils	0.62
Tulane Green Wave	0.54
Colorado Buffaloes	0.16
Texas A&M Aggies	0.11

Total Score: 29.19