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mickeyquicknumbers Ballot for 2016 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 24, 2016, 7:59 p.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Returning starters? Questions about depth? who cares. Alabama has lapped the field so comically in the department of recruiting and developing personnel that they are the presumptive favorite until we have results on the field to suggest otherwise. 
2 Clemson Tigers When you know a team is the runaway obvious choice to have the best offense in the nation, you tend not want to drop them very far. Very real concerns rest in the secondary and the DE and make them look not quite as much an impending juggernaut as just a clear 2nd best team in the nation for now.
3 Michigan Wolverines Has the hype train charged a little too far down the tracks? Not really, no. Somehow both the running game (4.6ypc between Smith & Johnson) and the passing game (not the receiving game, the passing game) are question marks for the time being, but Don Brown and his bevy of grown-ass men will be routinely smothering opponents into submission. Having very, very high confidence on one side of the ball and faith in the coaching acumen to develop the other side make Michigan & Clemson a ying-yang 2/3 selection for me.
4 Florida State Seminoles Maybe a top-2 team in potentials per snap, IDK. Both the offense and the defense are riddled with small question marks, but the absence of large question marks, the awesome quantity of young talent, and the expected maturation of matured talent make them a fashionable pick to challenge for the title. The faith I have in Jimbo over Les Miles gives them the edge over the very similarly situated LSU. 
5 LSU Tigers See FSU review. But in all seriousness, if Dave Aranda can close half of the gaping chasm between the collective defensive talent and collective defense play that held LSU back last year (I think he can) then LSU will be clear challengers for the playoffs. Also Fournette etc. 
6 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma has all the octane you could want on offense between Mayfield, Perine/Mixon, and a deep receiving corps; and the defensive line should more than hold their own despite the departure of Tapper; but losing Zach Sanchez & a thorough gutting the LB group should maybe prove to be a collective step back for the Sooner's defense. I guess you could call that a reason to be worried, but I'm not too worried. 
7 TCU Horned Frogs After the top-6 I think rankings are a total crapshoot, so I'll go with TCU. Give me one of the three or four best coaches in college football right now, with a defense should see a *dramatic* return to historic form as the class of the Big-12. The offense is doing half of a total rebuild with no Docson, Boykin, Green, or any of the 3 all Big-12 offensive lineman they had last year; but there are plenty of experienced receiving and rushing options left, and I don't believe Kenny Hill's crucifixion at A&M was as much an act of his own doing as most people believe. Of all the teams I have ranked 7th or lower, TCU's problems appear to be the least problematic.
8 Washington Huskies I could not care less about the Huskies record last year in predicting their record for this year. Chris Peterson is an extraordinary coach. Washington will very likely have one of the 5-7 best defenses in the nation, and the offensive upside is extremely obvious with Myles Gaskin who should be one of the 3 best running backs in the Pac-12 as a sophomore, Jake Browning who played well as a freshman and is very  likely to make a leap becoming a sophomore, and four offensive lineman coming back. Line up those units and head coach against any team ranked 9th or lower and I think Washington comes out ahead. 
9 Louisville Cardinals Speaking of upside, have you seen what Lamar Jackson can do when things are clicking for him? The offense was volatile last year, but with every single skill player that had at least 20 yards of offense returning this year, I expect their consistency to go way way up. Defensively they were very solid last year, and with a trio of awesome linebackers, a quartet of high quality defensive backs, and one of the best defensive tackles in the ACC returning, I think the defense moves forward big-time as well. 
10 Tennessee Volunteers With Bob Shoop now manning the defense, and an abundance of high-quality starters returning, I expect this defense to move from being pretty good to borderline-elite. On offense, the experience alone makes me think this team will have consistency working in its favor, with fewer and fewer drives falling apart due to rookie mistakes at any level. Still I think questions remain for the Vols as Jalen Hurd had questionable efficiency and lackluster explosiveness, Dobbs looked worse than mediocre in his downfield passing game, and the Vols return only one receiver with more than 310 receiving yards; their lack of explosive offensive play may end up costing them several games this year. 
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish This feels like the correct holding place for a Notre Dame team that has at least one very good QB, one very good RB, and not a lot else known on offense. All three of the defensive position groups have moderate turnover to overcome; but collectively I think the high-quality recruiting and the quality rotational players stepping up can fill the gaps here. 
12 North Carolina Tar Heels It's curious to see UNC consistently ranked as low as they are. I'm comfortable saying they won't take a step back this year. Marquise Williams was good, not great, making me mostly unafraid of what drop off in QB play will come with Mitch Trubisky taking over. Elijah Hood is a fantastic running back, the receiving group is deep, experienced and talented, and Tarheels could very well have the best offensive line in the ACC. The 2015 UNC defense was quite bad, but with the sheer quantity of returning starters and contributors I expect them to make a modest leap into mediocrity, which is more than enough to keep teams in check as the offense moves up and down the field on their opponents.
13 USC Trojans In spite of the milquetoast coaching reputation of Clay Helton, USC has a good chance of improving enormously this year. Max Brown is now in his fourth year in the program, and should not do much to set the offense back much. Ronald Jones, JuJu, and 2-6th receivers on the depth chart who all return this year should provide the Trojans with some truly electric playmaking. An offensive line that was hard to love last year should make large strides towards more efficient play, as 4/5ths of them return.The massive gutting of the front seven WILL hurt the Trojans this season, but the secondary is both extremely talented and very experienced (all five defensive backs with at least 25 tackles in 2015 return, which should help limit opposing offenses from marching all over this group, and giving what could be an incredible offense a chance to win.
14 Ohio State Buckeyes Most prognosticators will point to Urban Meyer & the recruiting success as a reason for the Buckeyes being ranked in the top-7 preseason; I see it more as a reason they should be in the top-15.I know Urban's system doesn't require nearly the understanding of complex football schemes some schools do, and that's going to help a lot, but there is literally not a single system that is immune to having mistakes, bad games or underdeveloped play from fresh starters; or one that doesn't benefit from having multi-year experience.I know how well Ohio State recruits (3rd nationally the last 3 years on average, behind FSU & Alabama and just barely in front of LSU), however returning SIX starters would be - by a significant margin - the fewest returning starters of any team in the top-10. After losing Ezekiel Elliot, Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall, Braxton Miller, Nick Vannett, Taylor Decker, Chase Farris, Jacoby Boren, Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington, Tommy Schutt, Joshua Perry, Darron Lee, Tyvis Powell, Vonn Bell AND Eli Apple; all the while facing a much tougher schedule, I think losing 2 more games than 2015 is reasonable. 
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys In conference with a crack-like addiction to passing, Oklahoma State actually has the QB to make the offense *better* and not simply *more*. The pass coverage the Cowboy's bring back can do a yeoman's work in making sure most of these conference games end up a shoot out in only one direction. 
16 Ole Miss Rebels Chad Kelly and great group of young receivers will be the bread and butter of this team's hope. A run game that was not quite up to snuff in 2015 will have its problems exacerbated by a turnover of all 5 starters off last season's offensive line, even taking into consideration the experience last year's starters acquired with an epidemic of line injuries last year. The defensive line could be one of the 10 best in the nation, but the turnover at LB and loss of their two clear leaders in the secondary in Mike Hilton and Trae Elston will probably leave them vulnerable against opponent's passing games. 
17 UCLA Bruins Last year's offense was fun! And it could be better! Josh Rosen led the NCAA in potentials per pass attempt; and I expect him to take a step forward as true freshman quarterbacks tend to do. Soso Jamabo may have been better than Paul Perkins last year, he was also a freshman. The offensive line loses three guys, and the WR group loses 4 of Rosen's top-5 targets, so there is some concern. Defensively the Bruins return everyone important save possibly their best player, Kenny Clark, but defense was the reason UCLA lost five games last year. Operating under the placholder assumption of "moderate improvement for every returner" as well as the return of Vanderdoes, UCLA *should* be looking at a rebound in 2016.
18 Florida Gators Here's a team that ended the season with a bit of a thud, but has lots of room for optimism with closer inspection. The Gators continue there total  overhaul from Muschamp's house of offensive horrors, and I expect this team to have some loosely formed identity ready forming a launching pad for 2017. New offensive lineman, new QB, new RB committee, new WR group; all of whom will be young and perhaps erratic, but should be a cause for optimism when compared to the Gators post-Grier output last year.Defensively Florida both loses a lot and returns a lot. Gone is human bowling ball Jonathan Bullard and an excellent edge rusher in Alex McCallister; returning are (by my count) five quality DLinemen who could still be one of the best groups in the nation. Gone is the excellent Antonio Morrison, back is Jarrad Davis and some talented albeit inexperienced guys behind him. Gone is first rounder Vernon Hargreaves, back is first rounder Teez Tabor. It's easy to see this being one of the 10 best defenses in the nation still, which can overcome a probably erratic offense and lead them to a 9-4 type finish.
19 Pittsburgh Panthers Wait Pittsburgh? Yes Pittsburgh! The Panthers now have a duo of excellent RB's in James Connor and Qadree Ollison to lean on, and the offensive line should be excellent with two all-ACC and four total starters returning (I have them in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the ACC with Clemson and FSU, and behind UNC). The passing game could leave something to be desire, but what team doesn't have issues at this stage of the rankings?  Defensively they could be great, behind an awesome Ejuan Price they return their entire defensive line, four of the five talented LB's they mainly relied on, and a highly experienced secondary anchored by Jordan Whitehead and Avonte Maddox, two DB's I predict will be 2nd team All-ACC players. This group overall should make a huge leap this year and be the big reason the Panthers ugly-football their way to 9-3 type season.
20 Michigan State Spartans Masked by the pretty looking 12 win season is a question is a concern about whether the Spartan's defense slipped out of perennial juggernaut territory with Narduzzi gone to Pitt. With the very obvious exception of Malik McDowell, Michigan State's DL has been completely gutted; the secondary returns most of its starters but they gave up a LOT of big passing plays. Altogether, I still expect this to be one of the 12-15 best defenses in the nation, but that may not be enough to overcome an offense that needs a major overhaul. Connor Cook is gone, his safety valve Aaron Burbridge is gone, and so is the 2nd most trust receiver from last year's team. Michigan State loses 3 linemen including two of the best linemen in the nation in Jack Allen and Jack Conklin. Experience returns at RB, but the ground game was lacking in both efficiency and explosive playmaking options.  This offense felt just barely good enough to get the job done in just about every game last year against non-Indiana opponents; and it's been gutted of all of its best parts. I think real trouble abounds for this team's win total in 2016.
21 Stanford Cardinal Christian McCaffrey had the best season of any player in college football last year, and he returns. Everything else... yikes. Gone is Kevin Hogan and his extremely underrated passing efficiency. Gone is the left side of the offensive line - the markedly better one, mind you. Last year Stanford had one of the five best offenses in the nation, this year I expect that number to be closer to 15th.  That electric offense kept Stanford alive despite very real problems with their 2015 defense. The front seven looked quite average, and with the loss of Aziz Shittu, Brennan Scarlett, Blake Martinez, and Kevin Anderson it could downgrade to being a big weakness. The secondary isn't concerning at all, but I think teams will have a very real opportunity to move the ball on Stanford this year, and I don't trust their ability to move the ball on other teams quite as much. 
22 USF Bulls So much to love on this team. Quinton Flowers is a rich man's Josh Dobbs, and could be one of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country this year. He's aided by an awesome Marlon Mack and the return of his top-5 receiving targets. USF should provide some truly wonderful and electric football this year. The Bulls are looking at big rebuild up front in year 2 of their switch to a 4-2-5 defense, and losing Eric Lee, James Hamilton and Demtrius Hill will take some time to overcome (and is the reason I didn't rank them higher), but a secondary that continually improved over the course of 2015 returns 12 of the 13 players that recorded a tackle last year, that kind of continuity gives them a lot to look forward to. 
23 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia is ranked 23rd because ?????? They could very well win the East but we have no idea how they would do it looking at their preseason depth chart. Jacob Eason's good-case-scenario is a Josh Rosen type season, but starting a true freshman that didn't enroll early makes you wonder just how high the disaster upside is. Nick Chubb could be fantastic Nick Chubb of old and a rock for the offense to lean on as the passing game develops, or he could never be the same again recovering from his horrible injury. Brian Keblanow and Greg Pyke could anchor an offensive line that goes from being pretty good to pretty great, or John Theus' replacement could be lackluster, keeping them pretty good. A front seven that is completely overhauled could easily be better this year with Smart's defensive acument in play and the talent waiting in the wings, or it could simply be too inexperienced. Literally the only position group I think we can say anything about with certainty is that Georgia's secondary will be excellent, returning all four starters after a very productive 2015. I think there are too many questions to have Georgia ranked in the teens, but too much talent to have them unranked, so here they sit. 
24 Houston Cougars I feel very confident in saying that Houston's 12-1 season was aided by the hands of fate, and I feel pretty confident that Houston fans will want to burn me alive for saying that. With Greg Ward returning and a big group of his targets, the passing game should still be quite good - if not missing the excellent play of Demarcus Ayers. The running game, that will have start with a completely fresh RB group, will be aided by Greg Ward's fantastic scrambling threat. Defensively a pretty good front 7 returns just about everyone and could transform into a pretty great front 7, but a secondary that often went high-risk and often got burned for it replaces 4 of its 5 starters; making the potential for being burned regularly much greater in 2016.
25 Oregon Ducks in 2015 Oregon looked like a top-10 team with Vernon Adams and a top-50 team without him, highlight just how insanely important good QB play is in this system. This year they have no Vernon Adams, and are hoping for a Vernon Adams replica in Dakota Prukop. If he can split the difference between Adams and Lockie, that leaves them... 30th? Probably higher than that, actually, given Royce Freeman is now a year more experienced, and 6 of the 7 receivers who had at least 150 yards in 2015 return. Defensively, Oregon wasn't just mediocre in 2015, they were downright bad. Like, 85th nationally and 54th among the 64 P5 teams bad. Their front 7 loses 3 of their four leaders in tackles on the DL, and their four leading tacklers from the LB; included in that group was the one great player on their defense - Deforest Buckner, a 1st round draft pick. There is some serious downside to Oregon's run defense and pass rush this year. The counterbalancing optimism lies in the secondary, where all 8 defensive backs who recorded at least 15 tackles returns. This is great news for an atrocious 2015 pass defense, as there is probably no place on the defense that experience matters more than in the secondary. With any kind of optimism for their QB play, and hopefulness that at least, the passing D moves from very bad to simply average or below average, there's plenty of reason to see Oregon able to outgun a lot of teams in 2016.

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