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ExternalTangents Ballot for 2026 Week 6

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 4, 2026, 12:06 p.m.

Overall Rationale: READ MORE HERE:
https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/

PREDICTIVE ACCURACY:
A team's rating is meant to be predictive of future results. This system consistently ranks highly against systems tracked on PreditionTracker.com for straight-up winner accuracy (81.5%, would be #1 on PredictionTracker for 2026 season to date), average absolute error (12.3, would be #21), and ATS (51.7%, would be #14). Win chances for individual games also track closely with observed win rates--for example, teams given a 75% chance to win a game are victorious about 75% of the time.

THE MAIN IDEA:
Each team is rated by two numbers: an offense rating (how many more or fewer points it scores than an average team would against the same opponents) and a defense rating (how many more or fewer points it allows, where lower is better). The difference between those two values (offense minus defense) is a team's Expected Team Average Net (ExTAN) rating, which corresponds to how many points the team would be expected to beat an average FBS team by on a neutral field. Subtract two teams' ExTAN ratings to get the expected spread between them at a neutral site. Apply 2.9 points for homefield advantage.

HOW IT'S CALCULATED:
Only game scores and locations are used for evaluating in-season results. Offense and defense ratings are calculated by adjusting for the quality of the opponent and for home field. Because each team's rating depends on its opponents' ratings, the model adjusts all teams together, repeatedly, until every rating is consistent with every result — strength of schedule is built into the method rather than added afterward. Early in the season, when there is little to go on, ratings are blended with a preseason estimate built from last year's final rating and recruiting talent; that estimate fades as real games accumulate.

Lots more detail about the ratings (including full rankings, team pages, accuracy tracking, and predictions) can be found at the ratings site: https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide NOTE: see overall Rational/Methodology for more details, or visit externaltangents.com/ExTAN

Overall +36.8; offense +24.4 (1st), defense -12.4 (7th)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Overall +31.7; offense +17.6 (4th), defense -14.1 (3rd)
3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Overall +31.1; offense +17.3 (5th), defense -13.7 (4th)
4 Georgia Bulldogs Overall +30.7; offense +21.3 (2nd), defense -9.4 (13th)
5 Texas Longhorns Overall +30.4; offense +10.4 (18th), defense -20.1 (1st)
6 Miami Hurricanes Overall +29.9; offense +17.2 (6th), defense -12.8 (6th)
7 Oregon Ducks Overall +27.1; offense +18.2 (3rd), defense -8.9 (14th)
8 LSU Tigers Overall +26.6; offense +14.5 (8th), defense -12.2 (9th)
9 Indiana Hoosiers Overall +24.1; offense +10.6 (16th), defense -13.5 (5th)
10 Utah Utes Overall +21.5; offense +11.4 (13th), defense -10.1 (11th)
11 Tennessee Volunteers Overall +20.4; offense +13.3 (9th), defense -7.1 (23rd)
12 Florida Gators Overall +19.4; offense +15.3 (7th), defense -4.1 (43rd)
13 Texas A&M Aggies Overall +19.2; offense +8.0 (23rd), defense -11.2 (10th)
14 Northwestern Wildcats Overall +16.8; offense +8.1 (22nd), defense -8.6 (17th)
15 Mississippi State Bulldogs Overall +16.3; offense +13.1 (10th), defense -3.2 (48th)
16 Texas Tech Red Raiders Overall +16.2; offense +7.4 (27th), defense -8.8 (15th)
17 Missouri Tigers Overall +16.1; offense +7.5 (26th), defense -8.7 (16th)
18 Nebraska Cornhuskers Overall +15.5; offense +10.6 (15th), defense -4.9 (35th)
19 Kentucky Wildcats Overall +15.2; offense +8.5 (21st), defense -6.8 (24th)
20 UCLA Bruins Overall +15.1; offense +11.5 (12th), defense -3.6 (45th)
21 Ole Miss Rebels Overall +15.1; offense +10.8 (14th), defense -4.3 (41st)
22 Iowa Hawkeyes Overall +14.8; offense +2.5 (55th), defense -12.3 (8th)
23 Oklahoma Sooners Overall +14.2; offense -0.7 (73rd), defense -14.8 (2nd)
24 USC Trojans Overall +14.0; offense +10.4 (17th), defense -3.6 (47th)
25 Auburn Tigers Overall +13.0; offense +2.9 (54th), defense -10.1 (12th)

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