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LookAtMaxwell Ballot for 2026 Week 6

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 4, 2026, 10:10 a.m.

Overall Rationale: A computer ballot. Monte Carlo of a multiple elimination bracket. Teams are randomly seeded. Wins in the bracket are assigned first by head-to-head performance on the field. Second by transitive wins, Third by simulation. Teams are ranked first by their median ranking, then by their average ranking. The teams with real wins over ranked opponents (Notre Dame, Alabama, Texas, Northwestern, Missouri, Texas Tech) are placed by results. Several others (Utah, New Mexico, Penn State, BYU, NDSU) are placed almost entirely by the score model. As the season goes on and more of these teams play each other, more matchups will be decided by results instead of simulation.

76.8% of the higher ranked teams from last week ranking won their game this week.

Rank Team Reason
1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish The best resume and the best score profile in the country. Notre Dame has 19 rule wins, including head-to-head wins over #11 Wisconsin and, by chain, #17 Penn State. The score model has it 4th in offense and 2nd in defense: 39.6 points scored, 14.1 allowed. It's favored over every team in simulation, though only 55% against Miami. That's why both teams are in tier 1
2 Miami Hurricanes It's level with Notre Dame on scoring: the #1 defense (13.8 allowed) and #8 offense. Its resume is thinner, though: its best rule win is over #30 Wake Forest, and it won 41–13 at Clemson this week. Because Notre Dame has wins over ranked teams and Miami doesn't, Miami sits second.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide It has the most rule wins of anyone (28), including #16 Missouri, #19 Mississippi State and #24 Florida. The last two come from this week's 56–23 win at Mississippi State. It also has the #1 offense (46.1 points). The defense ranks only 19th, which is why it's an underdog to Notre Dame and Miami (28% and 33%) but favored over everyone below.
4 Texas Longhorns It's the only team with a head-to-head win over a top-6 team: #6 Ohio State, 24–23. Add the win at #22 Tennessee and Texas has 24 rule wins. The score model sees an elite defense (3rd) but an average offense (27th), so it's an underdog to Utah in simulation (46%). The real Ohio State win keeps it at #4. Texas had a bye.
5 Utah Utes No losses and the 4th-best defense, but it hasn't beaten anyone ranked: its best rule win is over #39 Oklahoma State, by chain. Nearly all its placement comes from simulation, where it beats the field 94% of the time. It slipped from #3 to #5 during a bye as Alabama and Texas moved past. Utah, Texas and Ohio State are essentially tied (tier 3).
6 Ohio State Buckeyes Its only loss was 23–24 at Texas. The score model has it 5th in offense and 7th in defense. It's favored over every team ranked below it, but the real loss to Texas puts Texas above it in every bracket.
7 Indiana Hoosiers
8 Georgia Bulldogs
9 Northwestern Wildcats Beat Penn State 34–13. Its only loss was 23–29 at #7 Indiana, and the score model has it 9th in offense.
10 LSU Tigers
11 Wisconsin Badgers Beat Michigan State 31–3. Its only loss was to #1 Notre Dame.
12 UCLA Bruins
13 Texas Tech Red Raiders Won 29–7 at Colorado. Houston beat UCF, which gave Texas Tech a new chain win and made its head-to-head win over Houston (now #23) count for more. It's the only team from #12 to #21 with a rule win over a current Top 25 team.
14 Nebraska Cornhuskers
15 New Mexico Lobos Almost entirely a score-model team (9th in defense). It has 5 rule losses, from its loss to Oklahoma and chains through Oklahoma's results. Its best rule win is over #101 Central Michigan. Benefits from the model's score model reliance.
16 Missouri Tigers Beat Florida 45–17. That gave it a head-to-head win over Florida and, through Florida's win over LSU, a chain win over #10 LSU. The margin also lifted its scoring numbers. Its losses are only to Mississippi State and Alabama.
17 Penn State Nittany Lions Second loss, 13–34 at Northwestern. It now has 4 rule losses (Wisconsin, Northwestern, and by chain Notre Dame and Indiana). Its #6 defense in the score model keeps it at #17; without that it would be around the 60s. The highest ranked 2-loss team in the ranking.
18 Boise State Broncos Its best win is over #29 Memphis, and it lost 27–34 at Oregon. A balanced team that's favored over most of the teams below it.
19 Mississippi State Bulldogs
20 North Dakota State Bison In its first FBS season, in the Mountain West, though not yet eligible for the playoff. It moved up from #26 after beating Wyoming 28–0. It has no rule losses, but its best rule win is over #60 Air Force (38–32 on the road). It's held up by the 14th-best defense in the score model.
21 James Madison Dukes Unbeaten, with a real win over #28 Liberty (20–13). The rest of its schedule is weak, so the score model has it as average.
22 Tennessee Volunteers
23 Houston Cougars Beat UCF 27–17. Its only loss was 26–28 at #13 Texas Tech, and it gained as Texas Tech rose.
24 Florida Gators The 17–45 loss at Missouri added Missouri to its rule losses, alongside Alabama and Mississippi State. Florida has the #2 offense but the #93 defense, and giving up 45 made that worse.
25 BYU Cougars Up from #30. It won 17–10 at TCU, and Arizona's 34–7 win over Cincinnati late last night lifted BYU's Week 2 win over Arizona enough to edge it past Pitt. BYU has no losses but no ranked wins either: its best rule win is over #41 Arizona. The score model has it 11th in defense but 58th in offense. It's the shakiest spot in the ranking: with a different seed, BYU and Florida swap #24 and #25.

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