BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2026 Week 6
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Oct. 4, 2026, 2:26 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Missed last week due to travel. Still traveling so not a lot of time to run the full analysis and find anything interesting insight wise but this is the last week with any preseason bias. Next week is pure in season, I came up with an updated fit for win shares and may switch to that since it has better retrodictive fit and better predictive power but might hold off to keep the season consistent.
The quick catches outputted by default from the model though
Eval grid (acc / Brier): prior blend on all games 91.0% / 0.0904 · new blend on all 94.1% / 0.0758 · new in-season-only on all 93.8% / 0.0705 · new blend on new games 88.1% / 0.1002 · new in-season-only on new games 89.8% / 0.0948.
Biggest risers: Oregon St. #81→#44 (+37), Toledo #100→#64 (+36), Georgia St. #94→#69 (+25), North Texas and Eastern Mich. (+24 each).
Biggest fallers: Miami (OH) #65→#107 (−42), Massachusetts #52→#86 (−34), Delaware #80→#108 (−28), Navy #71→#95 (−24), Rutgers #96→#118 (−22).
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1881.0 -> 2091.6 [+210.6] (#4 -> #1) |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1983.8 -> 2029.4 [+45.6] (#1 -> #2) |
| 3 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1842.2 -> 1963.0 [+120.8] (#7 -> #3) |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1834.9 -> 1903.5 [+68.6] (#8 -> #4) |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1875.6 -> 1891.3 [+15.7] (#5 -> #5) |
| 6 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1901.5 -> 1888.3 [-13.2] (#3 -> #6) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1956.1 -> 1859.0 [-97.1] (#2 -> #7) |
| 8 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
1741.5 -> 1830.6 [+89.1] (#12 -> #8) |
| 9 |
Houston Cougars
|
1713.0 -> 1829.8 [+116.8] (#16 -> #9) |
| 10 |
UCLA Bruins
|
1706.6 -> 1814.0 [+107.4] (#18 -> #10) |
| 11 |
BYU Cougars
|
1822.3 -> 1802.1 [-20.2] (#9 -> #11) |
| 12 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1730.1 -> 1796.6 [+66.5] (#13 -> #12) |
| 13 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1863.0 -> 1793.4 [-69.6] (#6 -> #13) |
| 14 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
1668.4 -> 1789.3 [+120.9] (#21 -> #14) |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
1796.9 -> 1779.7 [-17.2] (#10 -> #15) |
| 16 |
Missouri Tigers
|
1592.0 -> 1759.7 [+167.7] (#31 -> #16) |
| 17 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
1607.5 -> 1749.7 [+142.2] (#27 -> #17) |
| 18 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1707.2 -> 1737.8 [+30.6] (#17 -> #18) |
| 19 |
Boise State Broncos
|
1728.4 -> 1724.9 [-3.5] (#14 -> #19) |
| 20 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
1548.5 -> 1722.5 [+174.0] (#39 -> #20) |
| 21 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
1701.4 -> 1721.8 [+20.4] (#19 -> #21) |
| 22 |
Florida Gators
|
1764.2 -> 1712.0 [-52.2] (#11 -> #22) |
| 23 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
1542.9 -> 1706.7 [+163.8] (#41 -> #23) |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
1649.3 -> 1699.7 [+50.4] (#22 -> #24) |
| 25 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1695.6 -> 1654.5 [-41.1] (#20 -> #25) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.72 |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.40 |
| 3 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 4 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.16 |
| 5 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-0.60 |
| 6 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.57 |
| 8 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
1.55 |
| 9 |
Houston Cougars
|
3.29 |
| 10 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.65 |
| 11 |
BYU Cougars
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
-1.18 |
| 13 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.00 |
| 14 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.01 |
| 15 |
Utah Utes
|
-0.44 |
| 16 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Northwestern Wildcats
|
1.12 |
| 18 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.00 |
| 19 |
Boise State Broncos
|
0.86 |
| 20 |
Kentucky Wildcats
|
0.60 |
| 21 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
Florida Gators
|
-0.37 |
| 23 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
LSU Tigers
|
-1.17 |
| 25 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-1.01 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.47 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.48 |
USC Trojans
|
0.25 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
0.16 |
Total Score: 17.05