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quantum_jedi Ballot for 2026 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 14, 2026, 3:33 p.m.

Overall Rationale: (Finally the model is working well, so lots of changes from last week) Resume ranking that evaluates teams based on who they beat/lost to. More points are awarded for beating good teams and less points are subtracted for losing to good teams. Preseason rankings are evaluated based on previous year's performance, returning production, and team talent composite. Beating an FCS opponent is awarded minimally, but losing is punished. Ranking score is modified by strength of opponent and travel distance to away games. Early season rankings are influenced heavily by strong non-conference wins (e.g., beating two decent teams is rewarded more than beating a single strong team and an FCS team) though this is biased by preseason rankings. Score accumulates throughout the season, so points are awarded based on the models perception of teams at the time.

Next five out: Iowa (27.04), Missouri (26.80), Penn St (26.36), USF (26.22), North Texas (25.44)

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns (41.70) Phenomenal win for the Longhorns over Ohio State. Best win of the season so far.
2 Texas A&M Aggies (40.78) The model loves their win over ASU. No FCS school to drag them down (yet).
3 Duke Blue Devils (38.78) Two solid wins for Duke, including Illinois on the road, give the Blue Devils one of the better early season resumes. A couple "easy" games ahead and Duke should head into the BYE week undefeated before the schedule difficulty ramps up again.
4 USC Trojans (37.76) Three wins already props the Trojans up a little artificially, but 3-0 is a good start. We'll see if USC is for real as B1G play begins with a long road trip to lovely Piscataway.
5 Michigan Wolverines (37.44) I have no idea if this team is good or not. It doesn't feel right that Michigan is rated this highly, but the win at Oklahoma was huge and gives Michigan a fantastic early season win! While technically they should be 1-1 (the correct call was made to add a second back), the Wolverines seem like a team that is going to drag their opponents, good or bad, into the muck.
6 Alabama Crimson Tide (36.28) Solid road win over Kentucky for the Tide. Alabama looks very good, but Russel needs to be more consistent and protect the ball better.
7 BYU Cougars (36.12) A strong preseason ranking and a big win over what is expected to be a good Arizona team. Good start for the Cougars.
8 Ole Miss Rebels (35.94) Opened the year with a great win over Louisville, then flattened Charlotte at home. Next week, LSU comes to Oxford...
9 LSU Tigers (35.02) Obliterated a floundering Clemson and pulled away from LaTech after a slow start. Next is a road trip to Oxford...
10 Georgia Bulldogs (34.18) I personally think Georgia is one of the three or four best teams in the country, but opening the year over FCS Tennessee St and WKU doesn't make for the strongest resume this early in the season.
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (33.66) Notre Dame began the year with a convincing win over Wisconsin in Lambeau and cruised to shutout over Rice. Perhaps Michigan St can make things interesting next week, but I expect the Irish to run over everyone until they travel to Provo in week 7.
12 Oregon Ducks (33.56) A great win to start the year over Boise St and then an absolutely bewildering loss on the road at Oklahoma St. Maybe the Pokes are good, but seems more likely that this Oregon team has some flaws that need to be fixed if they are to reach their lofty preseason expectations.
13 Indiana Hoosiers (32.27) Indiana continues to obliterate inferior opponents, but that doesn't give rise to a strong resume. The defending national champions should coast the next few weeks.
14 Vanderbilt Commodores (31.60) Honestly I can't figure out why Vandy is ranked so highly in my model (32nd in FPI strength of record), they are preseason 40ish, but 2-0 is 2-0. We'll see if Vandy can earn this early season ranking.
15 Utah Utes (30.81) Utah laid an absolute beat down on the Hogs in Rice-Eccles. Looks like the Utes are a serious contender for the Big 12.
16 Auburn Tigers (29.92) A solid start to the Alex Golesh tenure for Auburn. A very intriguing new-to-the-SEC head coach match-up next with Florida coming to town.
17 Texas Tech Red Raiders (29.67) Is Texas Tech not as good as we thought or are the Beavs significantly better than last year? Regardless a good win on the road for the Red Raiders as many ex-Pac12 teams will tell how hard it is to win in Corvallis on a rainy night.
18 Virginia Cavaliers (29.44) The Hoos dominated the first two games in impressive fashion. Tony Elliot has Virginia looking possibly even better(!) than even last year.
19 Miami Hurricanes (29.43) I think Miami is much better than #19, but so far their schedule has left a lot to be desired. The Hurricanes have looked like a top 10 team, but I'll reserve judgement until they play a serious opponent (which might have to wait until after the BYE week with how lifeless Clemson has looked).
20 Tennessee Volunteers (29.36) Solid win for Tennessee on the road against Georgia Tech.
21 SMU Mustangs (28.88) Began the year with a road victory over Florida St in an absolutely bizarre game.
22 Ohio State Buckeyes (28.84) Obviously, Ohio St is likely not the 22nd best team in the country but so far their resume consists of a very close loss on the road to Texas (still a loss) and a win over Ball St... The Buckeyes will have ample opportunity to climb back up the rankings as they play one of the harder schedules in the country.
23 UCLA Bruins (28.68) What a great start to the new season for the Bruins! It's still early, but they look much improved on the lines and Bob Chesney has UCLA looking the best they have in a long time.
24 Pittsburgh Panthers (28.38) Interesting start to the season for Pitt. Mason Heintschel and the Panthers passing attack looked unstoppable against Miami (OH), but really struggled against UCF. A couple of blue and orange teams next for Pitt.
25 Washington Huskies (27.80) Ugh, as a Washington fan this team is a mess. It's obvious that they have tons of potential, but continue to struggle with stupid penalties, injuries, drops, bad throws, and coin-flip punting. Once a potential playoff dark horse, the Huskies have a lot of work to do cleaning up their play.

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