/r/CFB Poll

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details).

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Indiana Hoosiers	+1
2	Texas Longhorns	-1
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	no change
4	Texas A&M Aggies	+3 although most of their lead came in garbage time yesterday. My model does not currently take garbage time into account
5	Utah Utes	Definitely an outlier, but the model really likes them blowing out Arkansas
6	Ohio State Buckeyes	-1
7	Georgia Bulldogs	-1
8	Miami Hurricanes	+4
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	-5
10	Ole Miss Rebels	no change
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	+2
12	LSU Tigers	+5
13	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+1
14	Tennessee Volunteers	+8
15	Kansas State Wildcats	+8
16	South Carolina Gamecocks	+1
17	Missouri Tigers	+9
18	USC Trojans	-3
19	Pittsburgh Panthers	no change
20	BYU Cougars	+1
21	Oklahoma Sooners	Manually dropped from 13 for losing to Michigan
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	-8
23	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+2
24	Virginia Cavaliers	+1
25	Florida Gators	-5 but adding in manually instead of the model's #24 Arizona. Even though Arizona looked like a decent team, the model doesn't rank BYU highly and the game was not competitive in the end.

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Indiana Hoosiers	0.28
2	Texas Longhorns	0.00
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
4	Texas A&M Aggies	0.79
5	Utah Utes	1.81
6	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
7	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
8	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.81
10	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
12	LSU Tigers	-0.58
13	Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.00
14	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
15	Kansas State Wildcats	4.23
16	South Carolina Gamecocks	4.14
17	Missouri Tigers	0.50
18	USC Trojans	-0.62
19	Pittsburgh Panthers	1.69
20	BYU Cougars	-1.01
21	Oklahoma Sooners	0.51
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
23	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1.55
24	Virginia Cavaliers	-0.15
25	Florida Gators	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
SMU Mustangs	1.14
Houston Cougars	0.43
Michigan Wolverines	0.16
Louisville Cardinals	0.15
Oregon Ducks	0.06

Total Score: 20.61

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BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2026 Week 3

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