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ColombianInIowa24 Ballot for 2026 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 2:38 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer swap mechanisms with random swaps used to fill in unknowns based on past season data outcomes and then recombined in Monte Carlo. I added a model is confident in ranked status, to certify that all runs within a standard deviation from the mean resulted in a ranked status.

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns 12.00 - Model is confident in ranked status.
2 USC Trojans 14.37 - Model is confident in ranked status.
3 Duke Blue Devils 19.78 - I swear I did not cook any homer bias in the poll, but the Monte Carlo loves them anyway. Model is confident in ranked status.
4 Indiana Hoosiers 22.85
5 Washington Huskies 24.71 - There are some disadvantages to not using margin of victory in live season...
6 Ole Miss Rebels 25.82
7 Iowa Hawkeyes 27.11 - Model is confident in ranked status.
8 Virginia Cavaliers 28.03
9 Alabama Crimson Tide 28.56
10 Pittsburgh Panthers 28.73 - See Washington, but I think Pitt is actually solid.
11 New Mexico Lobos 29.77 - A little surprised by this. Basically repeatedly amplified noise with nothing to turn it down. That or I am onto something.
12 Texas A&M Aggies 30.03
13 Western Michigan Broncos 30.95 - Yes, I allotted WMU the win, causing some weird antics.
14 USF Bulls 30.96 - Starting to look good, but not this good.
15 LSU Tigers 31.04
16 Penn State Nittany Lions 31.80
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 33.88
18 North Carolina Tar Heels 34.39 - Not a fan.
19 Nebraska Cornhuskers 34.65
20 James Madison Dukes 35.03
21 UCLA Bruins 35.04
22 Auburn Tigers 36.57
23 SMU Mustangs 38.52
24 Miami Hurricanes 38.57 - FCS schools not having an impact make Miami (FL) struggle a little
25 Texas Tech Red Raiders 41.25. Not shown, but should be ranked imo #34 Georgia (46.11), #27 Ohio State (42.40), #42 Tennessee (46.11), #29 Mizzou (43.58) and #58 Houston (60.43), #41 BYU (43.75). Also notable #26 Tulsa (42.27). NDSU is being punished for not having any data from prior seasons, giving them an initial last ranking that they are pulling themselves out of.

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