Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 2:38 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Computer swap mechanisms with random swaps used to fill in unknowns based on past season data outcomes and then recombined in Monte Carlo. I added a model is confident in ranked status, to certify that all runs within a standard deviation from the mean resulted in a ranked status.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
12.00 - Model is confident in ranked status. |
| 2 |
USC Trojans
|
14.37 - Model is confident in ranked status. |
| 3 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
19.78 - I swear I did not cook any homer bias in the poll, but the Monte Carlo loves them anyway. Model is confident in ranked status. |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
22.85 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
24.71 - There are some disadvantages to not using margin of victory in live season... |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
25.82 |
| 7 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
27.11 - Model is confident in ranked status. |
| 8 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
28.03 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
28.56 |
| 10 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
28.73 - See Washington, but I think Pitt is actually solid. |
| 11 |
New Mexico Lobos
|
29.77 - A little surprised by this. Basically repeatedly amplified noise with nothing to turn it down. That or I am onto something. |
| 12 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
30.03 |
| 13 |
Western Michigan Broncos
|
30.95 - Yes, I allotted WMU the win, causing some weird antics. |
| 14 |
USF Bulls
|
30.96 - Starting to look good, but not this good. |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
31.04 |
| 16 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
31.80 |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
33.88 |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
34.39 - Not a fan. |
| 19 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
34.65 |
| 20 |
James Madison Dukes
|
35.03 |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
35.04 |
| 22 |
Auburn Tigers
|
36.57 |
| 23 |
SMU Mustangs
|
38.52 |
| 24 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
38.57 - FCS schools not having an impact make Miami (FL) struggle a little |
| 25 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
41.25. Not shown, but should be ranked imo #34 Georgia (46.11), #27 Ohio State (42.40), #42 Tennessee (46.11), #29 Mizzou (43.58) and #58 Houston (60.43), #41 BYU (43.75). Also notable #26 Tulsa (42.27). NDSU is being punished for not having any data from prior seasons, giving them an initial last ranking that they are pulling themselves out of. |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
USC Trojans
|
1.52 |
| 3 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
5.66 |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies
|
7.45 |
| 6 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.13 |
| 7 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
2.52 |
| 8 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
1.67 |
| 9 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Pittsburgh Panthers
|
5.64 |
| 11 |
New Mexico Lobos
|
14.01 |
| 12 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
-0.37 |
| 13 |
Western Michigan Broncos
|
7.22 |
| 14 |
USF Bulls
|
10.67 |
| 15 |
LSU Tigers
|
-1.37 |
| 16 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
-3.95 |
| 18 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
6.84 |
| 19 |
Nebraska Cornhuskers
|
5.51 |
| 20 |
James Madison Dukes
|
4.57 |
| 21 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.14 |
| 22 |
Auburn Tigers
|
0.32 |
| 23 |
SMU Mustangs
|
-0.47 |
| 24 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
-3.68 |
| 25 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
-1.08 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Georgia Bulldogs
|
4.32 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.86 |
BYU Cougars
|
2.53 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.44 |
Utah Utes
|
1.43 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.43 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.47 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.16 |
Florida Gators
|
0.00 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.15 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.06 |
Total Score: 97.65