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LegionMammal978 Ballot for 2026 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 10:56 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Computer poll that comes up with the simplest explanation for all W/L results in the current season (a maximum-likelihood estimate), balancing the strength of each team's best wins against its worst losses. The underlying probability model is an Elo-style logistic curve P[A > B] = 1/(1+10^[(B-A)/400]). The ranking is based only on this season's graph of wins and losses: it does not consider MoV, rosters, previous seasons, conferences and divisions, etc. Every week is counted equally. Lower NCAA divisions are included in the calculations, but this top 25 is filtered to FBS teams. A tie counts as ½ W + ½ L. For the MLE to converge, I add two fictitious teams, one who has beaten everyone and one who has lost to everyone, then stretch the gap between them to infinity. The teams gather into groups between the two ("circles of suck" where each team has transitively beaten the rest), characterized by a Group Score (GS) for each group and relative Team Scores (TS) within each group. Group Scores have the property that no team with a lower GS has beaten a team with a higher GS. For each team in a group, I've listed the computed balance between wins and losses to yield its Team Score within its group. The full ranking can be found at <https://gist.github.com/LegionMammal978/32b04f3758f9538a2534b4a29d246bff>. All data is sourced from CollegeFootballData.com. NOTE: Since the /r/CFB Poll does not allow ties, I've used the previous season's final rankings as an arbitrary tiebreaker, but this is not a part of the model.

Rank Team Reason
1 Penn State Nittany Lions (+47½) GS .909, TS 0.
2 USF Bulls [T2.] (+46) GS .900, TS 0.
3 Tulsa Golden Hurricane [T2.] (+46) GS .900, TS 0.
4 Texas Longhorns (+44½) GS .889, TS −67.
5 UCLA Bruins (+43½) GS .875, TS 0.
6 Iowa Hawkeyes (+42½) GS .875, TS −75.
7 Florida Gators (+41½) GS .857, TS 55.
8 Virginia Cavaliers [T8.] (+40) GS .857, TS 34.
9 Troy Trojans [T8.] (+40) GS .857, TS 34.
10 BYU Cougars [T10.] (+62½) GS .857, TS 0.
11 USC Trojans [T10.] (−9½) GS .857, TS 0.
12 Wake Forest Demon Deacons [T10.] (+37) GS .857, TS 0.
13 Kansas State Wildcats [T10.] (+13½) GS .857, TS 0.
14 Michigan Wolverines [T14.] (+34) GS .857, TS −17.
15 Auburn Tigers [T14.] (+34) GS .857, TS −17.
16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (+32½) GS .857, TS −35.
17 Notre Dame Fighting Irish [T17.] (+31) GS .857, TS −52.
18 Duke Blue Devils [T17.] (+31) GS .857, TS −52.
19 Ole Miss Rebels [T19.] (+28½) GS .833, TS 0.
20 Vanderbilt Commodores [T19.] (−9) GS .833, TS 0.
21 Tennessee Volunteers [T19.] (−9) GS .833, TS 0.
22 LSU Tigers (+26½) GS .833, TS −40.
23 North Carolina Tar Heels (+25½) GS .821, TS 43.
24 Temple Owls (−13) GS .818, TS 0.
25 Texas A&M Aggies (+23½) GS .815, TS −71.

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