NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2026 Week 3
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 9:13 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
1.907 [11.11-0.89] |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
1.763 [10.89-1.11] |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.760 [9.51-2.49] |
| 4 |
Texas Longhorns
|
1.758 [9.24-2.76] |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
1.679 [10.66-1.34] |
| 6 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
1.631 [9.06-2.94] |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
1.517 [8.97-3.03] |
| 8 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
1.479 [9.13-2.87] |
| 9 |
LSU Tigers
|
1.457 [8.11-3.89] |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
1.432 [8.01-3.99] |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.359 [7.91-4.09] |
| 12 |
Utah Utes
|
1.290 [10.47-1.53] |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
1.176 [6.70-5.30] |
| 14 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
1.146 [10.08-1.92] |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
1.145 [9.33-2.67] |
| 16 |
Auburn Tigers
|
1.129 [6.81-5.19] |
| 17 |
Florida Gators
|
1.118 [6.91-5.09] |
| 18 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
1.069 [6.37-5.63] |
| 19 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
1.068 [9.51-2.49] |
| 20 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
1.048 [6.64-5.36] |
| 21 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.047 [6.68-5.32] |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
1.002 [7.52-4.48] |
| 23 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.996 [8.92-3.08] |
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.977 [6.46-5.54] |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
0.963 [8.08-3.92] |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Indiana Hoosiers
|
0.28 |
| 2 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.15 |
| 3 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
1.28 |
| 4 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Miami Hurricanes
|
0.00 |
| 6 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
0.12 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 8 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 10 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
0.42 |
| 12 |
Utah Utes
|
0.23 |
| 13 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
3.75 |
| 14 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.00 |
| 15 |
SMU Mustangs
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Auburn Tigers
|
3.01 |
| 17 |
Florida Gators
|
1.00 |
| 18 |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
|
0.97 |
| 19 |
Virginia Cavaliers
|
0.00 |
| 20 |
Vanderbilt Commodores
|
4.84 |
| 21 |
South Carolina Gamecocks
|
1.38 |
| 22 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
-0.13 |
| 24 |
Missouri Tigers
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
-2.21 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
BYU Cougars
|
2.53 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders
|
1.27 |
Houston Cougars
|
0.43 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.15 |
Oregon Ducks
|
0.06 |
Total Score: 24.20