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bladefencer Ballot for 2026 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2026, 4:28 a.m.

Overall Rationale: NOTE: These ratings consider the result of the Western Michigan @ Michigan game to be 12-7 in favor of Western Michigan. Michigan would not be ranked regardless.

Using only results from this year, I compute 1) a power rating, 2) an offensive rating, 3) a defensive rating and 4) a rating from the difference of the offensive and defensive ratings. I use the power rating to compute 5) a strength of record (SOR)/resume rating and 6) a rating that gives very small merits and demerits for particular results (e.g merits for postseason wins or beating a top 15 power rating team; demerits for getting blown out by a team with a similar power rating).

I normalize the six ratings and combine them in a weighted average to determine the final rating which increasingly values the SOR component the further into the season. The weights for the other ratings are static during the season. The result is not normalized, so the best possible final rating is 1.000 if a team is #1 in all six ratings.

Dropped: La Tech (2 -> 63), Virginia Tech (3 -> 27), UCF (4 -> 55), Arizona St (5 -> 53), Syracuse (6 -> 82), Army (7 -> 59), Georgia (9 -> 26), Minnesota (11 -> 66), App St (13 -> 46), Ohio St (15 -> 52), Oklahoma (17 -> 62), Georgia St (19 -> 38), UConn (21 -> 89), Kennesaw St (22 -> 95), Southern Miss (25 -> 94)

Next 10: Georgia (0.808), Virginia Tech (0.806), SMU (0.805), Northwestern (0.800), Iowa (0.792), Cincinnati (0.790), Colorado St (0.790), Western Michigan (0.786), Houston (0.785), Missouri (0.781)

Ranking violation % (% of played games with winner ranked below loser): 4%
Top 25 ranking violation %: 0%

Details:
The power rating is computed be repeatedly calculating each team's power rating as their total performance against the average of their opponent's previous power ratings until ratings converge. The offensive and defensive power ratings are similar but instead compare only the team's one-side-of-the-ball performance against an average of their opponent's other-side-of-the-ball rating.

[pseudo code]
power(0) = avg(margin of victory [MOV] capped at +/-25)
while MSE(power(N) - power(N - 1)) != 0
....power(N) = avg(MOV) + avg(opponent.power(N - 1) of each opponent)

off_power(0) = avg(points scored)
def_power(0) = avg(points allowed)
while MSE(off_power(N) - off_power(N - 1)) != 0 OR MSE(def_power(N) - def_power(N - 1)) != 0
....off_power(N) = avg(points scored) - avg(opponent.def_power(N - 1) of each opponent)
....def_power(N) = avg(points scored) - avg(opponents.off_power(N - 1) of each opponent)

A team's SOR is that team's wins above how many wins an average top 25 would expected to have against the same schedule. That expected numbers of wins is the sum of the win probabilities for game on the original team's schedule. To aid in computing the win probability of game, a normal distribution is fitted to the overall power rating (usually ~0 mean and ~14 standard deviation). The win probability is the cumulative distribution function (CDF) on that normal distribution of the difference of their power ratings adjusted for home field advantage. A team's SOR doesn't not depend on their own power rating, but only the reference average top 25 team and their opponents' power ratings.

[pseudo code]
SOR = actual_win_rate - avg(distrubtion.cdf(top_25_team_rating - opponent.rating) of each opponent)

As an example of the SOR calculation, assume two schedules:
* Schedule A of 2 elite teams, 2 great teams, 3 good teams, 3 average FBS teams, and 2 average D1 team
* Schedule B of 4 elite teams, 4 great teams, 3 good teams, 1 average FBS teams

The probability of an average top 25 team (power rating ~21) to beat an elite team (power rating >= 28) is worse than 31%, to beat a good team (~14) is about 69%, to beat an average FBS team (~7) is about 84%, and to beat an average D1 team (~0) is about 93%.

An average top 25 team's expected wins against schedule A would be 2 * .31 + 2 * .5 + 3 *.69 + 3 * .84 + 2 * .93 ~= 8.07
An average top 25 team's expected wins against schedule B would be 4 * .31 + 4 * .5 + 3 *.69 + 1 * .84 ~= 6.15

* Team X won 9 games against schedule A so their SOR would be (9 - 8.07) / 12 ~= 0.077
* Team Y won 7 games against schedule A so their SOR would be (7 - 8.07) / 12 ~= -0.089
* Team Z won 7 games against schedule B so their SOR would be (7 - 6.15) / 12 ~= 0.071

Team Z has a similar SOR to team X even though they have 2 fewer wins, and team Z has a much better SOR than team Y even though they have the same number of wins

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 0.900, +33, Power: 1, Off: 11, Def: 5, SOR: 24
2 Texas A&M Aggies 0.896, +16, Power: 3, Off: 12, Def: 2, SOR: 18
3 Penn State Nittany Lions 0.892, +26, Power: 2, Off: 49, Def: 1, SOR: 4
4 Indiana Hoosiers 0.881, +32, Power: 5, Off: 8, Def: 12, SOR: 25
5 Miami Hurricanes 0.864, +19, Power: 10, Off: 5, Def 4, SOR: 47
6 LSU Tigers 0.863, +25, Power: 6, Off: 14, Def: 15, SOR: 27
7 Florida Gators 0.860, +21, Power: 8, Off: 3, Def: 30, SOR: 31
8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 0.858, +42, Power: 7, Off: 26, Def: 18, SOR: 17
9 Tennessee Volunteers 0.856, +14, Power: 4, Off: 4, Def: 50, SOR: 35
10 Virginia Cavaliers 0.854, +44, Power: 13, Off: 15, Def: 7, SOR: 30
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs 0.846, +9, Power: 9, Off: 16, Def: 26, SOR: 29
12 Auburn Tigers 0.841, +73, Power: 23, Off: 35, Def: 27, SOR: 2
13 Texas Longhorns 0.838, +3, Power: 24, Off: 27, Def: 28, SOR: 6
14 South Carolina Gamecocks 0.836, -4, Power: 14, Off: 17, Def: 20, SOR: 36
15 Pittsburgh Panthers 0.836, +12, Power: 26, Off: 36, Def: 8, SOR: 7
16 USC Trojans 0.831, +40, Power: 11, Off: 23, Def: 47, SOR: 22
17 Utah Utes 0.828, -3, Power: 16, Off: 9, Def: 34, SOR: 40
18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 0.825, +41, Power: 19, Off: 43, Def: 60, SOR: 3
19 Maryland Terrapins 0.824, -11, Power: 18, Off: 28, Def: 10, SOR: 33
20 Nebraska Cornhuskers 0.819, +31, Power: 15, Off: 7, Def: 58, SOR: 48
21 UCLA Bruins 0.818, +40, Power: 13, Off: 37, Def: 32, SOR: 16
22 USF Bulls 0.816, +53, Power: 40, Off: 97, Def: 6, SOR: 1
23 Kansas State Wildcats 0.816, -22, Power: 22, Off: 13, Def: 25, SOR: 43
24 BYU Cougars 0.815, -12, Power: 20, Off: 18, Def: 41, SOR: 26
25 New Mexico Lobos 0.813, +20, Power: 21, Off: 6, Def: 38, SOR: 51

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