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jthomas694 Ballot for 2023 Week 15 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 4, 2023, 11:30 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Rankings should primarily be reflective of resume, what the team has accomplished on the field, and secondarily be a power ranking of what to expect from the future.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines Michigan is and should be the top team in the CFP. Allegations are what they are and perhaps they'll one day be punished for them, but that shouldn't be a factor at this point. Right now they are the top team in efficiencies per FPI and SP+, they have the number two strength of record and top game control. The top scoring defense and fourth in yards per play given up. Washington is the only team in the CFP with a better scoring offense. They have the strongest resume and pass the eye test.
2 Washington Huskies Washington has the highest ranked SOR and has an elite offense. They did not look consistently dominant but were the better team than Oregon in the PAC12 CG and Oregon was bailed out by some calls at the end of the first half to allow them back into the game. Penix and the offense are explosive. While the on field resume is as strong as Michigan's, they are not as strong in terms of efficiencies per FPI or SP+ and don't pass the eye test as well as Michigan does. Still a very strong contender, but I'm not sure their defense will allow them to win the whole thing.
3 Florida State Seminoles Florida State has the 6th ranked scoring defense, the thirteenth ranked scoring offense and was an undefeated P5 champion with two non conference SEC wins, including one on a neutral field over LSU (and it was not close). It is absolutely ridiculous that this is a team that will not be given the opportunity to win or lose in the CFP. The games don't matter and they have never mattered in this spot.
4 Texas Longhorns Texas' head to head win with Alabama on the road has to matter. The games have to matter.
5 Alabama Crimson Tide Is Alabama a different team than they were in September? The win over Georgia suggests that they might be, almost losing to an Auburn team who got out-gained by 200 yards by New Mexico State the week prior suggests they might not be. They didn't look particularly good when they had to play their third string QB and they also just showed that who's favored on a neutral field means nothing, as Georgia was a 6 point favorite. This is a very good defense and the run offense came together over the course of the season. They may win the whole thing, but that does not change the fact that they should not be in the CFP.
6 Georgia Bulldogs In a perfect world, Georgia is gearing up to play in a tournament game as an at large team. This might be the best team, but once again, the games have to matter and Georgia isn't a conference champion so they shouldn't be in the top 5 much less the top 4.
7 Ohio State Buckeyes What is Ohio State? They have a very strong resume and strength of record. They outgained Michigan on the road and the game ultimately came down to turnovers, missed field goals and turnovers that weren't. Ideally they'd be an at large team in a tournament, but we don't live in an ideal world
8 Oregon Ducks In one sense, Oregon is a team that lost two games to the same team by 3 points each time, and both games were away from home. They're 4th in SP+ and 2nd in FPI in terms of efficiencies. On the other hand - they have three wins against teams with winning records, and none were better than 8-4. They abused the teams they had a talent gap against and lost twice to the one team on their level. It feels appropriate that they lead the two loss teams
9 Missouri Tigers Missouri is a well balanced team that dominated Tennessee, outplayed Georgia and went 10-2. It's a similar resume to Oregon, with a team that looks less good statistically
10 Penn State Nittany Lions If Iowa is Toyota, Penn State is Lexus. It's just the luxury brand version of Iowa. Elite defense paired with a bad offense. Not explosive enough and they have a whelming 10-2 season to show for it.
11 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss did a good job winning all of the games they were supposed to win. That's a difficult task and Lane Kiffin did a good job. They got destroyed by Georgia and dominated by Alabama, but they won all their other games.
12 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma is a team that could have been. A couple of close losses to teams they're better than on the road kept them from the Big XII championship game and the CFP.
13 LSU Tigers There have been some elite defenses with less than stellar offenses. Here we have the opposite. Daniels and Nabors kept this from being a .500 team, but they could score on anyone.
14 Louisville Cardinals Louisville is in this spot, as they have head to head wins over Notre Dame and NC State. They lost to a 3-9 Pitt team, a 7-5 Kentucky team and couldn't do anything against FSU's defense in a CCG where they were on a third string QB, but the good puts them in the top 15
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame is a very good team on paper. But they didn't show up to the Clemson or Louisville games. What's the high point? A big win over NC State before they figured things out? A thrilling win over Duke? Dominating an imploding So Cal team? This feels like a team that's better than anything they actually did this year
16 Arizona Wildcats Losing two straight close games to Washington and So Cal could have folded this team. Instead they finish 6-0 including four wins over teams that were ranked when they played. Fisch won't win national coach of the year, but I think he should
17 NC State Wolfpack Great defense, with an offense that figured it out at the end of the year. Wins over Clemson and UNC. Good finish to the year
18 Iowa Hawkeyes Elite defense, one of the worst offenses in the country. Somehow went 10-3
19 Liberty Flames Went undefeated against a very soft schedule. Will get a chance at Oregon
20 James Madison Dukes Glad JMU is in a bowl game, blew their chance at an undefeated season against App
21 SMU Mustangs Won the AAC with a win over a very good Tulane team
22 Troy Trojans Very good team who finished on a ten game win streak with the only losses being to JMU and a good Kansas State team
23 Tulane Green Wave Tulane's only losses are to ranked teams, but failed to win the AAC
24 Oklahoma State Cowboys A 9 win Oklahoma State team made their conference championship. Somehow lost to South Alabama and got blown out by UCF. Completely out of their depth against Texas.
25 Tennessee Volunteers Had to choose an 8-4 team and went with Tennessee. Feel that they would probably win a tournament between these teams, but there's some other contenders - Oregon State, Utah, Clemson, UNC, Kansas and Kansas State.

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