NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Week 15 & Bowls
Ballot Type: Computer
Submitted: Dec. 3, 2023, 11:19 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
9.12 (13-0) |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
8.49 (13-0) |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
7.44 (11-1) |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
7.38 (13-0) |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
6.45 (11-2) |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
6.45 (12-1) |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
6.28 (12-1) |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
6.07 (10-2) |
| 9 |
Texas Longhorns
|
5.87 (12-1) |
| 10 |
Liberty Flames
|
5.77 (13-0) |
| 11 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
5.75 (10-2) |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
5.50 (9-3) |
| 13 |
Missouri Tigers
|
5.33 (10-2) |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
4.78 (10-2) |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
4.54 (10-3) |
| 16 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
4.53 (10-3) |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
4.50 (9-3) |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
4.49 (8-4) |
| 19 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
4.45 (9-3) |
| 20 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
4.39 (8-4) |
| 21 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
4.38 (8-4) |
| 22 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
4.29 (9-3) |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
4.28 (8-4) |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
4.26 (11-1) |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
4.21 (7-5) |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.00 |
| 2 |
Washington Huskies
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
2.06 |
| 4 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Oregon Ducks
|
1.61 |
| 6 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 7 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
-0.06 |
| 8 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.56 |
| 9 |
Texas Longhorns
|
-4.33 |
| 10 |
Liberty Flames
|
0.84 |
| 11 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
0.00 |
| 12 |
LSU Tigers
|
0.06 |
| 13 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-0.39 |
| 14 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-0.37 |
| 15 |
Louisville Cardinals
|
0.00 |
| 16 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
|
0.42 |
| 17 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Utah Utes
|
6.59 |
| 19 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
-0.44 |
| 20 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
1.71 |
| 21 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
0.00 |
| 22 |
NC State Wolfpack
|
0.00 |
| 23 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
0.00 |
| 24 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.00 |
| 25 |
USC Trojans
|
0.16 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
SMU Mustangs
|
1.31 |
Oklahoma State Cowboys
|
0.43 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.38 |
Troy Trojans
|
0.03 |
Total Score: 21.76