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hurricaneatx Ballot for 2023 Week 15 & Bowls

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Dec. 3, 2023, 9:23 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Blend of power/resume-thinking. I don't really care if a team moves drastically week-to-week. I am a fan of the Texas Longhorns. Rankings are not reflective of playoff inclusion. [Teams in the ranking suburbs (next 5): Kansas State, Oregon State, Troy, Kansas, Utah] [Teams in the ranking exurbs: Tennessee, Clemson, North Carolina, Memphis, New Mexico State, UCLA, Memphis, New Mexico State, UNLV, Boise State, West Virginia, Ohio, Miami, Duke, UCLA, Fresno State, Iowa State, USC, Texas A&M, Kentucky]

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) - [PLAYOFF] After plastering Iowa as pretty much everyone expected, Michigan added another game to its list of methodical stifling victories (which pretty much included every game outside of Maryland and Ohio State). It's a close comparison between Michigan and Washington at the very top of my ranking, though I give Michigan a slight edge based on how convincing their wins have been. Quality wins: UNLV, @Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa
2 Washington Huskies (13-0) - [PLAYOFF] Washington's resume is absolutely fantastic (and arguably the best in the country), and despite some close wins, have repeatedly proven doubters wrong and did so again in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a great, aggressive win over Oregon. Quality wins: Boise State, @Arizona, Oregon [2x], Utah, @Oregon State
3 Texas Longhorns (12-1) - [PLAYOFF] Texas might have the best win of the season @Alabama and capped off their CFP resume with a convincing win over a decent Iowa State team and overwhelming blowout wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, recovering from a string of narrow victories perhaps impacted by Quinn Ewers's injury. The loss to Oklahoma is a blemish when comparing Texas to other teams at the top, though that loss was a rivalry game and came down-to-the-wire. I have Texas at third, ahead of Florida State, given a substantially stronger strength of schedule despite the Oklahoma loss. Quality wins: @Alabama, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) - With how great the parity at the top has been this year, there's bound to be very good teams being left out. In my playoff selection, Alabama would be the first team out, and that's no slight against the Crimson Tide. The Crimson Tide got off to a very rocky start against Texas and South Florida (the latter of which was probably the worse game), but followed that up with yet another Saban masterclass, claiming the SEC title with a win over Georgia despite all the changing-of-the-guard talk. The combination of team strength and strong strength of schedule results in me ranking Alabama ahead of Florida State, but I'd pick Florida State to be in a playoff. Quality wins: Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia
5 Florida State Seminoles (13-0) - [PLAYOFF] In perhaps the most highly consequential conference championship game for teams on the playoff edges, Florida State absolutely stifled a Louisville team averaging 35 PPG headed into the championship. Florida State has had some close games during the year but should deservedly grab a playoff berth with their undefeated schedule and ACC title. Florida State might not be favored in matches against top-tier teams, but Vegas and power ratings should not decide playoff inclusion. Quality wins: LSU, @Clemson, Duke, Miami, Louisville
6 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) - It's weird that the two-time reigning champion with one loss could be getting left out of the playoff, but the margins between teams at the top have been extremely narrow. Georgia's been a steady team all season, though not clearly head-and-shoulders above the rest as they've been previously. A stinging and narrow loss to Alabama unfortunately drops them out of the running for the CFP in all likelihood. Quality wins: Missouri, Ole Miss, @Tennessee
7 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) - The Buckeyes have posted good wins, though unfortunately their loss to Michigan and the jumble of high-performing teams probably knocked them out of playoff contention. Quality wins: @Notre Dame, Penn State
8 Oregon Ducks (11-2) - Oregon's blown the socks off of most of its weaker competition, though the Ducks's strength of schedule has been frequently derided, with their wins over Wazzou, Utah, USC, and Oregon State looking worse over time. Oregon had a shot to upgrade that resume with another shot against Washington but ultimately demonstrated they were a weaker team on the field, though they and Washington were clearly a cut above the rest of the Pac-12. Quality wins: @Utah, Oregon State
9 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) - Penn State is a great team and have harbored an incredible defense. That defense kept them in games against elite competition, but their offense had little to show for it. I think Penn State is a top 10 team and pummeled nearly all lesser competition this year. Unfortunately, they did not nab a win from their matchups against Michigan or Ohio State, pretty much keeping them out of any playoff chatter. Quality wins: West Virginia, Iowa
10 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) - Oklahoma notched one of the best wins of any FBS team this season (and straight-up best if we're just looking at rankings) with their rivalry win over Texas in Dallas. Unfortunately for the Sooners, that game seemed to take the wind out of their sails, segueing into a very close shave against UCF and losses against Kansas and Oklahoma State. Oklahoma has the best win among its 2-loss non-title game brethren, but also has the worst losses. Quality wins: SMU, Texas, West Virginia
11 Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) - Ole Miss and Missouri are pretty close in the pecking order, and both have solid wins against a solid top-30 team, losses against quality SEC teams, and recent escapes against middling SEC teams. Ole Miss was blown out by Georgia, but a win over LSU and a marginally better strength of record puts slots them just ahead of Missouri in my ranking. Quality wins: @Tulane, LSU
12 Missouri Tigers (10-2) - Missouri and Ole Miss I have as effectively tied. I don't like quality losses being a dominant influence on ranking teams late-season, but I think that's what the AP poll/CFP ranking is doing. Quality wins: Kansas State, Memphis, Tennessee
13 LSU Tigers (9-3) - LSU would be in the playoff if they had a defense. Unfortunately for Jayden Daniels, LSU has USC's problem. I think LSU would top Ole Miss or Missouri if they played again, but having lost to Ole Miss, I have LSU at #13 given their resume. Quality wins: @Missouri
14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) - The surprising gem of the Pac-12's final year, Arizona snuck up my top 25 after following up close losses to Washington and USC with a six-game winning streak that showed that those close losses were no fluke. Quality wins: Oregon State, UCLA, Utah
15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) - Louisville turned in a miserly performance in the ACC championship game, but have had a somewhat successful year. However, their year was mired by losses to a very bad Pitt and an okay Kentucky, and the poor quality of those losses put them at #15. The narrow win over NC State and the two-score win over Notre Dame is good (albeit maybe not as dramatic given Notre Dame's two hard-fought games immediately preceding), though the shutout win against Duke has looked less impressive with time. Quality wins: @NC State, Notre Dame, Duke, @Miami
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3) - Notre Dame is a strong team, but that gauntlet against Ohio State clearly did a number on them as they followed that up with an escape @Duke and a clear loss @Louisville. However, Notre Dame let Clemson build up too big of a margin of a Clemson, leaving them with a loss that definitively shooed them away from the top 10 range. Quality wins: @NC State, Duke
17 SMU Mustangs (11-2) - Pony up! Computers love SMU, and they've put together a great season that seems to have flown under the radar for those not following G5 play. Arguably the best team in the Group of 5, SMU's only losses were in competitive games against Oklahoma and rival TCU, capping their pre-bowl year with the AAC title against a strong Tulane team. Quality wins: @Memphis, Tulane
18 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) - A true Sickos team to the very end, 2023 Iowa has been a sight to behold. Iowa's resume consists of squeaking by bad and okay competition and getting shut out by good teams.
19 Tulane Green Wave (11-2) - After last year's Cotton Bowl triumph over USC, Tulane looked to continue that success. Despite not having starting QB Michael Pratt, Tulane kept it very close against Ole Miss for 3.5 quarters and won the rest of their regular season, though with a lack of stiff competition and some close calls against bad ECU and Tulsa teams. Tulane finally had another opportunity to stack up against solid competition in the AAC Championship but let it slip away in the 4th quarter. Quality wins: @Memphis
20 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4) - OK State is a strange team to rank. While late-season OSU is vastly different schematically compared to the team that started 2-2 with a blowout loss to South Alabama, OK State was eviscerated by UCF and had to claw back to beat BYU despite having strong wins against middle/mid-high tier Big 12 teams. Eye test and OSU's crushing losses very much hamper what could otherwise be a decent resume, placing Oklahoma State somewhere in the back of the top 25 but still within the ranking. Quality wins: Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia, Oklahoma
21 Liberty Flames (13-0) - I don't know what to do with Liberty. Metrics say they've been a very good team this year, and they've put up good results against their competition. Problem is, that competition is the worst in the country (#133 SOS). Their two wins against New Mexico State, including the C-USA title, are the best barometer for evaluating Liberty, but even then that is a very bad barometer. Their unblemished season garners them a spot in the rankings, but the shambolic strength of schedule holds them towards the back of the top 25. Quality wins: New Mexico State [2x]
22 NC State Wolfpack (9-3) - After starting 4-3 and being somewhat written off, NC State put together five straight wins, with good wins over Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina within that streak to end what turned out to be a decent regular season. Quality wins: Clemson, Miami, North Carolina
23 Miami (OH) RedHawks (11-2) - Miami has been on the fringes of my top-25 throughout the second half of the season and have popped into the top 25 with the MAC title over Toledo, exacting revenge for their mid-season loss following the injury to their starting QB. Quality wins: @Ohio, Toledo
24 James Madison Dukes (11-1) - JMU might be the second-best team in terms of power ranking across the G5, and nearly strung together an undefeated season before losing in overtime to 68th in FPI App State. Quality wins: Troy
25 Toledo Rockets (11-2) - Toledo's had some great years under Jason Candle. Toledo could have taken the MAC Championship but those hopes were in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, Toledo rounds out by top 25. Quality wins: @Miami [OH]

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