Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Oct. 9, 2023, 9:12 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I believe that by the end of the regular season ratings should be based solely on resume, but until then you need to include some judgment of a team's quality other than the quality of their resume. So this is essentially a prediction of "how will these teams be ranked at the end of the regular season in a purely resume-based ranking?". So 4-2 but likely to finish 10-3 is better than 5-1 but likely to finish 8-4. (given same SoS.) To this end I am looking at teams' records and schedules, resume ratings like strength of record, and computer ratings like FPI and Massey.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | computer ratings have them best or near it, and they have a quality win |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | computer ratings have them best or near it, and they are defending B2B champs |
3 | Oklahoma Sooners | computer ratings have them best or near it, and they have a quality win. (any of these top 3 teams could be #1) |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | about #4 on paper, and they have been dominant |
5 | Penn State Nittany Lions | about #5 on paper, and they have been dominant |
6 | Oregon Ducks | computer ratings like them about this much, and they have been dominant |
7 | Florida State Seminoles | computer ratings think they're not great, but they have a quality win |
8 | Washington Huskies | computer ratings have them in the 7-10 range, and they have been dominant except @ arizona. but no real tests yet |
9 | Texas Longhorns | computer ratings have them near best, and they have a quality win and only lost to OU |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | computer ratings have them near best, and they have a quality win and only lost to texas |
11 | USC Trojans | computer ratings have them highish, and they are undefeated, but they have had a lot of close calls |
12 | North Carolina Tar Heels | computer ratings have them second-lowest of the P5 undefeated teams |
13 | Louisville Cardinals | computer ratings don't really like them, but they are undefeated with a quality win |
14 | Ole Miss Rebels | computer ratings like them and they have a quality win |
15 | Oregon State Beavers | computer ratings like them most of the 1 ranked loss crowd |
16 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | two losses but it's to good teams and computer ratings still think they're around here |
17 | Utah Utes | ranked win ranked loss |
18 | Wisconsin Badgers | computer ratings have them as solid, and their only loss is to wsu |
19 | UCLA Bruins | ranked win ranked loss, but computer ratings doubt them more |
20 | Washington State Cougars | worst of teams in this 15-20 tier b/c computer ratings hate em |
21 | LSU Tigers | sue me. computer ratings love em despite 2 losses |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | this is the prototypical resume of a #22 team |
23 | Duke Blue Devils | this is the prototypical resume of a #23 team |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | where we're going we don't need offense |
25 | Texas A&M Aggies | sue me again. computer ratings love em despite 2 losses |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.63 |
2 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
3 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
5 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
6 | Oregon Ducks | 0.00 |
7 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 |
8 | Washington Huskies | -0.07 |
9 | Texas Longhorns | 0.00 |
10 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
11 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
12 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.00 |
13 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.00 |
14 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
15 | Oregon State Beavers | 0.00 |
16 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 0.61 |
17 | Utah Utes | 0.00 |
18 | Wisconsin Badgers | 2.00 |
19 | UCLA Bruins | 0.00 |
20 | Washington State Cougars | 0.00 |
21 | LSU Tigers | 0.04 |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
23 | Duke Blue Devils | -0.36 |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.26 |
25 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Kansas Jayhawks | 0.45 |
Air Force Falcons | 0.04 |
Kentucky Wildcats | 0.12 |
Total Score: 4.57