Back to poll results >>

BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2023 Week 7

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 9, 2023, 8:01 p.m.

Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: USC dropped out from #12, the model must've heavily penalized them for playing Arizona so close. This is my first poll so I'm still deciding how much to weigh my model vs. the eye test - I want to give the benefit of the doubt to the model but it's really hard to not replace Fresno with USC.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines +6
2 Oklahoma Sooners -1
3 Georgia Bulldogs -1
4 Washington Huskies +1
5 Florida State Seminoles +1
6 Penn State Nittany Lions -4
7 Ohio State Buckeyes -4
8 Texas Longhorns +1
9 Tennessee Volunteers +2
10 Alabama Crimson Tide no change
11 Oregon Ducks -3
12 Air Force Falcons +2
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish no change
14 Texas A&M Aggies no change
15 North Carolina Tar Heels +4
16 Duke Blue Devils +1
17 Oregon State Beavers +3
18 Maryland Terrapins +6
19 UCLA Bruins -1 according to model, moved up from #24.
20 Wisconsin Badgers +3, this is probably an unusual one but their only loss is Washington State on the road and I think Rutgers is actually a pretty good win.
21 Clemson Tigers -6
22 Louisville Cardinals +5
23 Kansas State Wildcats +3 according to model, but moved down from #14 because of ugly loss.
24 LSU Tigers -5 according to model, but replaces #25 South Alabama who should not be ranked.
25 Fresno State Bulldogs +1 according to model, moved down from #19 because even though I think Wyoming is underrated, a loss is still a loss. Not sure how the model moved them up after that.

Back to poll results >>