Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 8, 2023, 2:04 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	4.40
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	4.32
3	Michigan Wolverines	4.30
4	Georgia Bulldogs	4.29
5	Oregon Ducks	4.08
6	Washington Huskies	4.06
7	Utah Utes	3.90
8	Oregon State Beavers	3.89
9	USC Trojans	3.86
10	Florida State Seminoles	3.85
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.81
12	Oklahoma Sooners	3.77
13	Louisville Cardinals	3.69
14	North Carolina Tar Heels	3.64
15	Texas Longhorns	3.61
16	UCLA Bruins	3.60
17	Washington State Cougars	3.59
18	Ole Miss Rebels	3.58
19	Tennessee Volunteers	3.57
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.50
21	Maryland Terrapins	3.49
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	3.45
23	LSU Tigers	3.41
24	Wisconsin Badgers	3.39
25	Clemson Tigers	3.37

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.63
2	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.01
3	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
4	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
5	Oregon Ducks	0.12
6	Washington Huskies	0.00
7	Utah Utes	2.46
8	Oregon State Beavers	2.12
9	USC Trojans	0.00
10	Florida State Seminoles	-0.73
11	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
12	Oklahoma Sooners	-2.80
13	Louisville Cardinals	0.00
14	North Carolina Tar Heels	-0.20
15	Texas Longhorns	-1.11
16	UCLA Bruins	0.29
17	Washington State Cougars	0.00
18	Ole Miss Rebels	-0.01
19	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
20	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
21	Maryland Terrapins	2.07
22	Iowa Hawkeyes	1.89
23	LSU Tigers	0.00
24	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
25	Clemson Tigers	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Duke Blue Devils	1.24
Kansas Jayhawks	0.45
Air Force Falcons	0.04
Kentucky Wildcats	0.12

Total Score: 17.27