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Tornadohunter24 Ballot for 2023 Week 4

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 19, 2023, 9:50 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Intro/Methodology: Well, what was supposed to be a less interesting week on paper turned out to be one of the most insightful, feisty, and honestly baffling of the season. From Tennessee finding out their swamp voodoo had not lifted to Missouri’s last-minute 61 yard field goal and several other top team close-calls, it was a wild weekend of games. Even Boston College nearly managed to take down #2 Florida State! As a reminder, my methodology is pretty simple; I reward teams who win and drop teams who lose. I’m a big fan of teams who prove themselves against more elite competition and don’t care much for cupcake games, except when there’s something that the cupcake-eater does that merits additional attention. Pretty standard stuff. I’m also a really big fan of poll fluidity and of non-P5 teams, and so my poll may represent overreactions to a given Week’s results, especially early on. Pre-season rankings are nothing but guesswork and failed expectations, anyway. I also try to account for how well teams are doing before and after they play one another, and if there’s anything that’s changed about a team. A lot of it does come down to the dreaded eye test and grinding out wins vs domination, but again, nothing unique. This does mean that I tend to rank pretty harshly by record early on; you’ll see what I mean. Teams Dropping Out: #10 Kansas State Wildcats [2-1] - Results so far: 48-17 vs Southeast Missouri State, 42-13 vs Troy, 27-30 @ Missouri | This is admittedly a very harsh removal of what still looks like a top 3-4 team within the Big XII this season, but I’m sticking with my rules of record trumping seasonal expectations. That said, Kansas State needed to assert themselves with a victory over SEC’s Missouri if they really wanted to hammer home their chance at a shot in the final version of the 4-team CFP. While it doesn’t completely rule them out of contention, the poor perception of the Big 12 this year isn’t helping matters, though the Wildcats can start clawing their way back into contention with a win over newcomer and still undefeated UCF this weekend. #13 Tennessee Volunteers [2-1] - Results so far: 49-13 vs Virginia, 30-13 vs Austin Peay, 16-29 @ Florida | For the 10th straight time (dating back to 2003), Gainesville’s Gators triumphed over the Volunteers in the Swamp. Despite all the hope and hype around Tennessee this year, even with a large portion of their best 2022 team off to the draft, the Volunteers find themselves once again cursing their seemingly-Sisyphean task of beating divisional rival Florida at Florida. It’s a tough ask for the Vols to get back in the wheel (especially after their last-minute brawl to end a miserable, dreadful day), but they at least will get a slightly weaker opponent in the UTSA Roadrunners at home before returning to conference play. Honorable Mentions: Louisiana State Tigers [2-1] - Results so far: 24-45 vs Florida State (in Orlando), 72-10 vs Grambling State, 41-14 @ Mississippi State | The Tigers from Baton Rouge continue to remain the country’s best 1-loss team, as they continued their revenge path from their crushing defeat against the Seminoles to start the season by breaking the hopes and dreams of everyone in Starkville last weekend. A scoreline that doesn’t even reflect how dominant they were, LSU appears to be in the catbird seat to claim the SEC West, though trips to Oxford, Tuscaloosa, and surprisingly enough, Columbia, will prove to be tough tests down the line. These Tigers have a chase to improve to 2-0 in conference play when they host the Razorbacks this weekend. South Alabama Jaguars [2-1] - Results so far: 17-37 @ Tulane, 35-17 vs Southeastern Louisiana, 33-7 @ Oklahoma State | Well, hello there Sun Belt! A rough opener to go up against defending Cotton Bowl winner and AAC Champion Tulane saw South Alabama slip out of the view of myself, but after a so-so performance against FCS SELA, they traveled to Stillwater and absolutely eviscerated the Big 12’s Cowboys in humiliating fashion. While it’s seemingly obvious that Oklahoma State isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire this year, such a statement performance immediately shoots them up not only back into Sun Belt title contention (with Troy being down and James Madison being ineligible, who they actually play in 2 weeks) but also jockeying for the elusive G5 NY6 spot. The Jaguars host Central Michigan this weekend to end their non-conference slate. Wyoming Cowboys [2-1] - Results so far: 35-33 (2OT) vs Texas Tech, 31-17 Portland State, 10-31 @ Texas | While it seems odd to bump up a team into contention for the top 25 from a G5 conference after a 3-score loss to last week’s #1 school, the scoreline of that game is quite unflattering towards the actual performance of both teams. For 3 or so quarters, the Cowboys from Laramie had the Longhorns wrangled up and ready for the upset, but unfortunately the talent disparity won out in the 4th, leading to the unflattering scoreline. However, hanging that long with one of the best teams in the nation at their stadium and the upset of Texas Tech at home goes a long way when considering nationwide ranking. A matchup at home against upset-master Appalachian State awaits them this weekend. BYU Cougars [3-0] - Results so far: 14-0 vs Sam Houston State, 41-16 vs Southern Utah, 38-31 @ Arkansas | It wasn’t all bad news for the Big 12 last weekend, as BYU managed to go out on the road and pick up an impressive win against the SEC’s Arkansas in a thrilling late-night affair. Despite being outgained and falling behind in the 1st half, Provo’s Cougars managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in front of a stunned Razorback crowd. Despite being their first year in a Power 5 conference, BYU has shown the ability to contend (albeit in limited doses; see the Sam Houston slugfest) against longtime P5 members and are now looking to put themselves to 4-0 when they go up against fellow undefeated conference member Kansas in Lawrence. Syracuse Orange [3-0] - Results so far: 65-0 vs Colgate, 48-7 vs Western Michigan, 35-20 @ Purdue | A bit of a nice surprise this season, the Orange from New York have looked surprisingly strong in their opening 3 weekends. While dominant performances against lower-tier opposition like Colgate are one thing, going out and humbling defending B1G West champ Purdue is certainly a great sign of their strength and favors them heading into an apparently difficult start to the ACC schedule, with games against Clemson, at UNC, and at Florida State looming. The Orange will get one more game to get themselves situated, but they have to be careful to avoid succumbing to the mind-numbing and patented Army triple-option this weekend. Unfortunately, I ran out of time this week to complete the individual team analyses in time for this poll deadline at 11 AM ET - here's a link to my full-season explanations! https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-jnr-Ef_rMkNQIHGRo0kKrd_4Xz9qam5TbjkJ4TUn1U/edit?usp=sharing

Rank Team Reason
1 Washington Huskies
2 Texas Longhorns
3 Penn State Nittany Lions
4 Georgia Bulldogs
5 Michigan Wolverines
6 Florida State Seminoles
7 Oregon State Beavers
8 Ohio State Buckeyes
9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 USC Trojans
11 Oregon Ducks
12 Ole Miss Rebels
13 Utah Utes
14 North Carolina Tar Heels
15 Duke Blue Devils
16 Oklahoma Sooners Results so far: 73-0 vs Arkansas State, 28-11 vs SMU, 66-17 @ Tulsa | The dreaded specter that has dominated over the Big XII since its formation appears to be back for one last ride, as Oklahoma’s typically high-powered offense appears to be matched by an equally potent defense, albeit against lesser opposition in Tulsa this past weekend. While worries that cropped up against SMU aren’t fully alleviated by shutting down the in-state Hurricanes, such a result does show their fortitude and paint them as the second-most likely team to make the Big 12 title game so far. The Sooners are looking strong and appear ready to tear through the rest of the Big XII, starting with their trip to Cincinnati this weekend to play the Bearcats.
17 Washington State Cougars Results so far: 50-24 @ Colorado State, 31-22 vs Wisconsin, 64-21 vs Northern Colorado | In what is going to be a recurring theme for this week’s rankings, Wazzu played FCS Northern Colorado and blew them out by 43 points. The result was never really in any sort of suspense (unlike Week 2’s thrilling back-and-forth game against the Badgers), and Washington State’s Ward continued his great form in their Week 3 matchup. Now all attention turns towards this weekend’s tryst against the Beavers in Pullman, in what will unofficially decide this year’s Pac-2 champion and more importantly will mark the beginning of conference play for two of the best teams in a stacked Pac-12.
18 Miami Hurricanes Results so far: 38-3 vs Miami (OH), 48-33 vs Texas A&M, 48-7 vs Bethune-Cookman | Following their takedown of the Aggies from College Station, Texas, Miami played FCS and HBCU Bethune-Cookman and predictably won without much of a fight. In games like this, there’s not much to take away from it, though the confidence that the Hurricanes possessed in their first couple of weeks hasn’t been seen since Mark Richt was at the helm. While they’re not necessarily able to contend with the top of the ACC and may end up falling short of a NY6 bowl, second-year HC Mario Cristobal has to be thrilled with how quickly Miami has recovered from a disastrous 5-7 year in 2022. Miami travels north to old Big East opponent Temple this weekend.
19 UCLA Bruins Results so far: 27-13 vs Coastal Carolina, 35-10 @ San Diego State, 59-7 vs NC Central | The second PAC-12 team we’ve seen on this list so far has been relatively unchallenged in dealing with their opening non-conference slate, with the results never in any real doubt after the first 20 minutes or so of game time. Their wins haven’t been too points-heavy (FCS NC Central game aside), and the lack of an out-of-conference P5 opponent doesn’t really give them the chance to prove that they’re any better than where they currently are (especially with a weaker San Diego State), so far. The game @ Utah this weekend is therefore the first true test for the Bruins, as their gauntlet of PAC-12 play begins.
20 Fresno State Bulldogs Results so far: 39-35 @ Purdue, 34-31 (2OT) vs Eastern Washington, 29-0 @ Arizona State | The Bulldogs from California have had a rollercoaster of a season so far. While the highs have been great (blanking Arizona State in Tempe), going to 2OT against FCS Eastern Washington the week before was not reassuring. There’s talent scattered all throughout this roster, and the potential for an undefeated season for the first time in history is possible, with Boise State lackluster and both P5 opponents down, but they’ve got to prevent such crushing falls if they want to avoid trap games in conference play. Fresno State hosts Kent State this weekend.
21 Iowa Hawkeyes Results so far: 24-14 vs Utah State, 20-13 @ Iowa State, 41-10 vs Western Michigan | For the first time this season, the Hawkeyes managed to score more than 25 points in a single game. Though this only came against the MAC’s Western Michigan, who aren’t exactly worldbeaters, a 31-point victory was a pretty convincing performance for those who doubted the potency of Iowa (which was understandable after their first two games). The defense is as stout as ever, but the offense being so lackluster overall is still a sign for concern, especially as they need to travel to top 5 Penn State for their first conference game of the season.
22 Louisville Cardinals Results so far: 39-34 vs Georgia Tech (in Atlanta), 56-0 Murray State, 21-14 @ Indiana | Speaking of ugly wins, the Cardinals didn’t really get going in the 2nd half on offense, and their defense gave them a scare by letting the Hoosiers score 14 unanswered in the 3rd Quarter. While they held out for the victory, their ranking increase was more the result of other teams falling down around them more than any of their own impressive results, though 2 P5 wins in the first 3 weeks of the season is doing wonders. They host Boston College this weekend, fresh off of their near-upset of highly-ranked Florida State. Coach Brohm has some work to do to keep Louisville rolling if they want to go to the ACC title game for the first time.
23 Colorado Buffaloes Results so far: 45-42 @ TCU, 36-14 vs Nebraska, 43-35 (2OT) vs Colorado State | If you want to look for a team that was nearly caught and drowned underneath the wave of potential upsets last weekend, look no further than the host of College Gameday in Boulder, Colorado. In a chippy, messy, scrappy, and ugly rivalry game, Colorado and Colorado State’s game was anything but a resounding victory for the Buffaloes and Coach Prime. Though the win against TCU does look better this week, the close call against G5 CSU is very much not, and the less said about Nebraska, the better. This weekend, a Travis Hunter-less Colorado makes the trek out to Eugene, Oregon to play the highly-ranked Ducks in a critical game for both teams’ hopes of a successful season.
24 Missouri Tigers Results so far: 35-10 vs South Dakota, 23-19 vs Middle Tennessee, 30-27 vs Kansas State | After Week 2’s scare against CUSA opponent Middle Tennessee, not much was expected out of the Tigers from Columbia in their matchup against last week’s #10 Kansas State. However, in a weekend full of surprises, close calls, and upsets, this one comes close to topping the list. Though it took a last-second field goal and a 13-point 4th quarter surge to upset the Wildcats, Missouri enters Week 4 as one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the normally difficult SEC. They play at home another set of Tigers this weekend in Memphis, who are also 3-0 and at the top of the AAC right now. No rest for the weary, it seems.
25 James Madison Dukes Results so far: 38-3 vs Bucknell, 36-35 @ Virginia, 16-14 @ Troy | These Dukes hop up straight into the top 25 for the first time following their impressive performance last season and a stunning set of victories over in-state P5 Virginia and defending Sun Belt champion Troy. Their victory over the Cavaliers showed their mental fortitude in coming back after getting punched in the face in the 3rd, and their victory over the Trojans showed their defensive prowess in preventing a strong team from mounting their own comeback. This weekend, JMU travels to Utah State to experience the mile-high air and see if they can prove their own altitude to back up the current positive attitude.

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