Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 18, 2023, 10:52 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My model uses a neural network to predict the result of a game given the average efficiency statistics for each team. Then, this neural network is used as a basis to simulate every team playing every other team in a home, home, and neutral series, which then provides a basis by which the teams can be ranked. This is stratified, meaning that after the full rankings are produced, the top 50 teams are skimmed and simulated against one another again in an attempt not to reward teams too heavily for beating up on terrible teams and being unable to beat other decent teams. Finally, the teams are ranked by their simulated wins over top-50 teams, with the "Reasons" entry representing that number of wins (ties are broken by the simulated total point differential). I am aware that this ballot is super weird, but it will ideally stabilize as more games are played and the model has more data to work with. Stay tuned for a full write-up of the model and its methodology! I will avoid tweaking the model too heavily to avoid excessively volatile rankings, but I may change that in the interest of pursuing higher accuracy.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Oklahoma Sooners	118
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	108
3	Miami Hurricanes	108
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	106
5	Washington Huskies	101
6	Ole Miss Rebels	101
7	Michigan Wolverines	98
8	Arizona Wildcats	94
9	Louisville Cardinals	90
10	Oregon Ducks	90
11	USC Trojans	88
12	Air Force Falcons	88
13	Clemson Tigers	86
14	Oregon State Beavers	86
15	Auburn Tigers	86
16	Duke Blue Devils	85
17	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	83
18	TCU Horned Frogs	81
19	Florida Gators	81
20	Penn State Nittany Lions	81
21	Georgia Bulldogs	81
22	Cincinnati Bearcats	79
23	Arkansas Razorbacks	77
24	Kansas State Wildcats	77
25	UCF Knights	75

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Oklahoma Sooners	1.89
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.25
3	Miami Hurricanes	2.19
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
5	Washington Huskies	0.00
6	Ole Miss Rebels	1.45
7	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
8	Arizona Wildcats	17.19
9	Louisville Cardinals	15.29
10	Oregon Ducks	0.00
11	USC Trojans	-0.03
12	Air Force Falcons	13.04
13	Clemson Tigers	6.63
14	Oregon State Beavers	0.00
15	Auburn Tigers	4.96
16	Duke Blue Devils	0.00
17	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	8.22
18	TCU Horned Frogs	7.10
19	Florida Gators	3.53
20	Penn State Nittany Lions	-3.49
21	Georgia Bulldogs	-2.51
22	Cincinnati Bearcats	3.24
23	Arkansas Razorbacks	2.24
24	Kansas State Wildcats	0.17
25	UCF Knights	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Texas Longhorns	6.64
Florida State Seminoles	5.94
Utah Utes	2.59
North Carolina Tar Heels	1.39
LSU Tigers	0.94
Alabama Crimson Tide	0.85
Colorado Buffaloes	0.51
Washington State Cougars	0.79
UCLA Bruins	0.41
Iowa Hawkeyes	0.20
Missouri Tigers	0.01

Total Score: 114.70