Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 18, 2023, 12:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	3.66
2	Utah Utes	3.64
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	3.63
4	Washington Huskies	3.55
5	Oregon Ducks	3.53
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	3.50
7	Oregon State Beavers	3.50
8	USC Trojans	3.47
9	Michigan Wolverines	3.37
10	Florida State Seminoles	3.27
11	UCLA Bruins	3.22
12	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.21
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.13
14	Washington State Cougars	3.10
15	Texas Longhorns	3.07
16	LSU Tigers	3.00
17	Ole Miss Rebels	2.98
18	Oklahoma Sooners	2.94
19	North Carolina Tar Heels	2.93
20	Tennessee Volunteers	2.92
21	Clemson Tigers	2.89
22	Louisville Cardinals	2.87
23	Duke Blue Devils	2.84
24	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.84
25	Florida Gators	2.84

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Utah Utes	1.71
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.20
4	Washington Huskies	0.00
5	Oregon Ducks	0.93
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
7	Oregon State Beavers	1.31
8	USC Trojans	0.00
9	Michigan Wolverines	-0.06
10	Florida State Seminoles	-0.75
11	UCLA Bruins	1.40
12	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.30
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.29
14	Washington State Cougars	0.85
15	Texas Longhorns	-2.90
16	LSU Tigers	0.00
17	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
18	Oklahoma Sooners	-0.07
19	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
20	Tennessee Volunteers	1.62
21	Clemson Tigers	1.66
22	Louisville Cardinals	2.56
23	Duke Blue Devils	-0.94
24	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.00
25	Florida Gators	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Miami Hurricanes	0.75
Colorado Buffaloes	0.51
Missouri Tigers	0.01

Total Score: 18.80