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Tornadohunter24 Ballot for 2023 Week 3

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 12, 2023, 2:54 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Intro/Methodology: Well, that was a thoroughly entertaining week of college football (all blowouts of buy games and Auburn vs Cal aside), though seeing how many high-profile games occurred this week vs the meager offerings we have for Week 3 hurts my soul. Hopefully, we’ll be treated to an upset or two in between all of the one-sided matchups, even if it means we have to watch Boston College again. As a reminder, my methodology is pretty simple; I reward teams who win and drop teams who lose. I’m a big fan of teams who prove themselves against more elite competition and don’t care much for cupcake games, except when there’s something that the cupcake-eater does that merits additional attention. Pretty standard stuff. I’m also a really big fan of poll fluidity and of non-P5 teams (though I don’t feature much of those this week), and so my poll may represent overreactions to a given Week’s results, especially early on. Pre-season rankings are nothing but guesswork and failed expectations, anyway. I also try to account for how well teams are doing before and after they play one another, and if there’s anything that’s changed about a team. A lot of it does come down to the dreaded eye test and grinding out wins vs domination, but again, nothing unique. This does mean that I tend to rank pretty harshly by record early on; you’ll see what I mean. Teams Dropping Out: Wisconsin Badgers - Not everything is rosy in Madison, as my pre-season pick for the B1G West ultimately faltered and stumbled their way to a loss in Pullman against now-ranked Washington State. A 9-point loss on the road to a solid Cougars squad is nothing to feel awful about, but it does show a bit of weakness in the team that was somewhat evident after their Week 1 win against 0-2 Buffalo, who just lost to FCS Fordham. Wisconsin has the chance to bounce back when they host Georgia Southern this weekend. Troy Trojans - There will be no repeat of last season, where a resurgent G5 team managed to topple of the Big XII’s top programs in Kansas State, as these Trojans head back home empty-handed and beaten. They’ll have to get back on their feet quickly, as the best team in Virginia (game against Virginia Tech pending) in James Madison awaits, and Troy will need to shake off the 4-score loss to get back rolling if they want to repeat as Sun Belt Champions. At least they’ll be able to start their in-conference play at home? Tulane Green Wave - An unfortunate set of circumstances left Tulane without its star starting QB Pratt against fellow ranked team Ole Miss in a fantastic game that ended with an unflattering scoreline for how close the game actually was. While a 17-point loss at home for the Green Wave is quite unfortunate, it’s clear that there’s still some serious talent on this team (and are still my pick to be in the AAC Championship Game against SMU, who are quite talented themselves), and anyone else who has to play them this year will likely come in as underdogs. This holds true for Southern Miss, who will host the Green Wave this weekend and were well… humbled, we’ll say, by their Week 2 opponent, Florida State. Alabama Crimson Tide - WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT wait… hear me out. Yes, I’m aware that this is a Saban-led Alabama who I had #6 last week. Yes, their 10-point loss at home to Texas was close on the scoreline. Yes, this team is still the favorite to win the SEC West. HOWEVER, I’m not going to afford them to remain in my rankings to keep consistent with my chosen methodology, especially as their only other game (a 56-7 win) was against middle-of-the-road CUSA team Middle Tennessee (who admittedly gave fellow SEC team Missouri a scare last weekend). Therefore, at 1-1, they drop out, for now at least. They’ll probably be back though… right? Good luck, USF. Honorable Mentions: Louisiana State Tigers - After a crushing 45-24 defeat, Coach Kelly proceeded to march his boys back to Baton Rouge and absolutely clobber the hell out of FCS and HBCU in-state school Grambling State 72-10. While excessive, it helps remind everyone that LSU is still a strong team this year, even if there’s not exactly much you can extract out of an FBS vs FCS beatdown. This weekend, the Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville to kick off SEC play for both teams, and should serve as a decent test for both rosters in the dogfight of the SEC West. Clemson Tigers - Following the Week 1 collapse against the Blue Devils at Duke, Clemson desperately needed to right the ship and get the season back on track. In the first quarter against Week 2 opponent FCS Charleston Southern, it appeared that Coach Swinney was living a repeated nightmare, as two costly turnovers allowed the visitors to hop out in front. Eventually, talent won out and these Tigers decided to make a statement with a 66-17 win. There’s still a lot of questions to be answered about this team, but at least they have what should be a winnable game against 1-1 FAU this weekend before having to face the buzzsaw of the Seminoles in Week 4. Cincinnati Bearcats - An unremarkable Week 1 victory over FCS Eastern Kentucky was followed up with a stunning 27-21 win at the ACC’s Pitt, but it did not come without a few heart attacks during Pitt’s inspired 4th quarter comeback (if you ignore their QB, that is). While I wasn’t high on UC this season due to their move from the American to the Big XII, this win was enough for me to move them up into consideration for the top 25, though concerns over depth, coaching ability following the departure of Luke Fickell, and the ability to hold on to their leads keeps them out of cracking the top 25 this week. They’ll need to keep rolling against Miami (OH) this weekend if they want to be on their A-Game against the ranked Oklahoma Sooners in Week 4. Minnesota Golden Gophers - In the yearly confusing carousel on which team will get sacrificed to the East Champion in Indianapolis to bolster their CFP résumé, the Gophers have yet to be the ones unfortunate enough to stumble their way into Lucas Oil Stadium as champions of the B1G West. Could this year be the year? Considering Iowa’s inability to muster 25 points a game, Wisconsin’s struggles under first-year coach Fickell, Purdue’s loss against Fresno State (and subsequent weather-delayed messy win against Virginia Tech), everything about Northwestern, and a lack of a clear challenger from Illinois or Nebraska, the path is open for Minnesota to finally snag a spot in the championship game… as long as they keep the losses limited to just Ohio State and Michigan, a brutal combo to draw from the East. They also travel to UNC this weekend to play the ranked Tar Heels, who look like a formidable opponent compared to the paper tiger of last year. 25 points against MAC Eastern Michigan won’t cut it. Kansas Jayhawks - Last year’s pleasant surprise in bowl-eligible Kansas has done well to keep the momentum going in Year 3 of the Leipold experiment, winning 48-17 against FCS Missouri State in Week 1 and following that up with a poorly-refed win against Illinois 34-23 in Week 2. A tough in-conference slate will likely put a halt to any dreams of a legitimate run at Big XII championship contention, but a game against a team coming off of a humiliating 33-6 loss to FCS Idaho in Nevada looks like the perfect way to kick off the season at 3-0.

Rank Team Reason
1 Texas Longhorns Alright, let’s talk about the Longhorns. For the first time since 2019, a team went to Tuscaloosa and managed to escape with the win, and it was the first time someone not from the SEC did that since Louisiana-Monroe in 2007. That is an insane stat, which shows not only the longevity of Saban’s reign atop the CFB landscape but also how monumental of a win this is for Texas, who I have had jump 12 positions all the way to #1. This wasn’t a fluke win either; Texas was the more physically dominant, more composed, and more confident team from start to finish, only briefly letting Alabama recapture the lead before slamming the door shut on the Crimson Tide in the 4th. For the first time in probably over a decade (Sugar Bowl-winning 2019 Texas, who was a lot more of a paper tiger, notwithstanding), there is legitimate hope in Austin that they have a team ready to contend for the national championship. So is Texas finally back? I don’t know, but they look pretty damn good. We’ll see if they can stave off any rogue upsets against Wyoming this weekend and avoid falling into a H8ful cycle when Big XII play starts in Week 4.
2 Florida State Seminoles Don’t be fooled by the spot drop in the rankings; there is a good chance that the experienced Seminoles are still the top team in the country right now. This past weekend, Florida State decided to empathize that they really don’t like schools related to anything about the Mississippi (either the river or the state) by brutalizing a decent Sun Belt school in Southern Miss to the tune of 66-13. Jordan Travis and Trey Benson were absolute studs in the backfield once again, and even the backup QB Tate Rodemaker snagged two TDs of his own. It was a complete annihilation, and now FSU looks to relive their glory days of the 90s by devouring the rest of the ACC, starting with a tepid Boston College squad that barely escaped an embarrassing loss to FCS Holy Cross a week after blowing it against MAC’s Northern Illinois. Of course, I’m sure the Seminoles will be more focused on when they travel to South Carolina’s Death Valley to battle rival Clemson in Week 4, but expect them to dispatch BC and end up 3-0 nonetheless.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions This past weekend, Penn State decided to make an example out of FCS Delaware, brutalizing them 63-7 in front of the Nittany Lion faithful. While a less impressive showing than their 3-score victory over rival West Virginia in front of that same crowd, it was still an impressive demonstration of their offensive prowess nonetheless. This weekend, they’ll play their first game away from Beaver Stadium by traveling to Illinois to start off B1G play in what has the makings of a trap game, seeing as this noontime bout is immediately followed up by a battle against offensively-challenged but defensively-stout Iowa. We’ll see what Drew Allar can muster in his first B1G game of his career (get it? :P) as the rushing attack received a lot more attention in the Delaware beatdown, but all signs point to Penn State having the opportunity to win the B1G for the first time since 2016.
4 Georgia Bulldogs You can essentially take what I’ve said for Michigan, add a southern flair to the write-up, and apply it to Georgia. Thanks in part to the oft-maligned decision of the SEC to force the cancellation of the uGA-Oklahoma home-and-home series, Georgia’s Bulldogs don’t exactly have a strong non-conference lineup they can bark at people about. They may take 15 minutes to get going (thanks new OC Mike Bobo?), but once they do it’s like watching a freight train bowling over a toy one. From what limited playbook we’ve seen so far, QB Carson Beck and the RB room are strong enough for a legitimate push at the threepeat, and the defense is as fierce as ever. The Bulldogs will host a battered South Carolina team for Week 3, before inviting UAB to Athens in Week 4. Again, it’s hard to know how strong their schedule is, but at the very least they’re taking the season one weekend and bulletin board at a time, and so far have bowled perfectly since January 2022. Expect this ranking to make it to the bulletin board.
5 Michigan Wolverines Ann Arbor’s feisty ferret-drowners have done exactly what has been necessary to ensure dominant victories over ECU and UNLV, and I expect this trend to continue when they take on the MAC’s Bowling Green in the Big House. There hasn’t really been anything too challenging about their schedule so far, and with QB J.J. McCarthy as good as ever in the backfield, with the dynamic duo of RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards still healthy and moving the football downfield, there’s nothing to suspect Michigan will have much issue dispatching teams like Rutgers and Nebraska in B1G play, though Minnesota may prove to be a tougher test in Week 6. The only reason they’re not higher up is that they haven’t really played anyone of note yet; it shouldn’t be too much of a detriment to their rankings thanks to the clear quality they’re showing on the field every weekend.
6 Washington Huskies After Week 1’s savage beatdown of the Boise State Broncos to kick off the season, the Huskies from Seattle found themselves in a much more frustrating game against the Tulsa Hurricanes, with occasional greatness on both sides of the ball giving way to a bit of mediocrity on key moments of their various outings. While ultimately a comfortable win in the end, I’m a little less sold on Washington making it to Las Vegas (though I still have them doing so per these rankings), though it will be by no means easy. Washington will make the trek to East Lansing to face off against a Michigan State team whose ex(?) head coach Mel Tucker found himself embroiled in controversy this week. I already favored Washington to take this matchup, and I expect them to do so to end up being 3-0 heading into their own grueling PAC-12 schedule.
7 Oregon State Beavers There’s something special brewing in Corvallis this year, and no it’s not just the lawsuit they jointly filed with Wazzu against their own conference (gosh realignment is weird). The Beavers under current HC Jonathan Smith and led by transfer QB DJ Uiagalelei look like a true playoff contender, even if we’ve only seen them take down weaker opponents in San Jose State and FCS UC Davis. While there is a slight step back on the running game and the defensive side of the ball, the passing game is immeasurably better and their offense is much more well-rounded as a result. They host San Diego State before traveling to Pullman for Week 4 to kick off their own PAC-12 gauntlet, though they do dodge USC. Keep your eyes on the Beavers to potentially steal a CFP spot come December.
8 USC Trojans Lincoln Riley’s SoCal CFP dreamers made a statement last weekend, putting up 49 in the first half alone against a hapless Stanford who had the gall to score a touchdown late in the 4th. This then resulted in the starting offense and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams coming back onto the field to hammer the point home in a dominant 56-10 win. While Stanford aren’t expected to be good this year, Nevada is rivaling Arkansas State for worst loss of the season, and San Jose State is middling in the Mountain West in general, USC made a statement of intent to tear through the season with their high-powered offense despite the gauntlet ahead. They’re actually off for the next week, and that’s probably a good thing; their PAC-12 schedule puts them against 5 of 7 of the top 25 PAC-12 teams (avoiding Oregon State and #20 Washington State), as well as their annual game with #11 Notre Dame. Just like last year, the defensive side of the ball needs some work and prevents me from ranking them higher, though their slaughtering of the Cardinals is a good sign.
9 Ohio State Buckeyes This year’s iteration of the seemingly ever-consistent Buckeyes is one that is somewhat hard to place. A victory to start off the year at Indiana was nice, but it wasn’t exactly a standout performance. Last weekend’s home game against FCS Youngstown State should’ve been a walk in the park and a reassurance to the Buckeye faithful, but QB Devin Brown was a bit of a disappointment, and McCord’s three touchdowns weren’t exactly calling cards of a Heisman QB. The receiving corps are as strong as ever, with Marvin Harrison Jr. leading the room, and the two lines look as ready as ever for national title contention, but can Ohio State really return to the promised land of the CFP without a strong QB? Performance would say no, but Ryan Day is one of the best HCs in the current college landscape for a reason.
10 Kansas State Wildcats The reigning Big XII champions welcomed defending Sun Belt Champs Troy to Manhattan in a game that definitely could’ve ended in unwanted flashbacks for the Wildcats. Fortunately for Coach Klieman, he was able to effectively shut down the Trojans for 3 of 4 quarters (the second quarter was the lone exception, and that came down to more of a one-off drive than anything) and power Kansas State to a 2-0 record. They now make the short journey east to former conference opponent and rival Missouri in their premier OoC game, and the Tigers of central Missouri (despite their close call with Middle Tennessee last week) will prove to be a decent test for the Wildcats as they prepare to embark on their title defense.
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish After a hard-fought game at a likely bowl-bound NC State (who are always good for 7 to 9 wins on a given season) and their rowdy Wolfpack crowd, Notre Dame will be happy to take another tune-up game against MAC team Central Michigan before their Week 4 showdown against the Ohio State Buckeyes in South Bend. Sam Hartman has been a wonderful boon for the offense, and the defense looks like a step up over last year, especially on the line and secondary. Unfortunately for the Irish, the schedule is no cakewalk, and they’ll need to be on their A-Game for pretty much every opponent (especially rival USC) from this point onwards. It’s definitely a good sign for Notre Dame that they’ve performed as well as they have so far, even if NC State was closer for 45 more minutes than they would’ve liked.
12 Oregon Ducks If I had a nickel for every PAC-12 team last weekend that struggled at a P5 Texas school that already had one loss thanks to a G5 upset, I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot but it’s weird that it’s happened twice. No seriously, the coincidence is kind of unreal. I’m not exactly sure how Texas Tech managed to blow it all in the 4th after Oregon blew it all in the 3rd, but I’m less certain about how good this Ducks team is, though I’m a little more sympathetic to Texas Tech’s ability now (if for nothing else, another Nebraska-level heartbreak). Regardless, Oregon has the chance for a breather after that scare when they host Hawaii this weekend, in what should be another easy victory. In Week 4, they host Colorado to kick off PAC-12 play. For the sake of Oregon fans everywhere, they better hope they get whatever upset bug nearly snagged their hopes and dreams of CFP Playoffs is gone by then.
13 Tennessee Volunteers If there is one thing good to say about Tennessee this week, it’s that they didn’t choke at home vs an FCS school in Austin Peay last weekend. That seems to be about the only good thing anyone can take from that sloppy 30-13 win, with the vaunted Volunteers offense that was so strong against an admittedly poor Virginia seeming to misfire from the get-go. That kind of lackluster performance will not serve them well in SEC in-conference play, which they start this weekend against East division rival Florida. While I’m under no illusions into the Gators actually being good this year, the Vols must do better if they want to take the next step and return to challenging the Georgia Bulldogs for the East crown and repeat last year’s feat of knocking off the Crimson Tide. Hopefully for them, they can use the Florida game for exactly that.
14 Utah Utes Coach Kyle Whittingham will be thanking his lucky stars that there was enough time left on the clock for backup QB Nate Johnson to take over for an ineffective Barnes and power the Utes to a last-minute victory (DPI call on the final play not whistled, after a dreary showing from the refs in general) at Baylor. In general, it was not a reassuring win, and Utah will be looking forward to having their star QB Cam Rising return to the fold, even without trusted RB Micah Bernard for the rest of the year. After two P5 openers, Utah has a brief reprieve against FCS Weber State before immediately hopping into their PAC-12 gauntlet against UCLA in Week 4. The Utes will be looking to reacquire that potent offense and stout defense which led them to back-to-back championships in the coming weeks.
15 Ole Miss Rebels In one of the most hard-fought games in Week 2, Ole Miss made the trek down to New Orleans to square off against reigning Cotton Bowl Champs Tulane in a much-hyped matchup. A 37-20 win (that we discussed earlier in Tulane’s section) that felt much closer than the scoreline reflects proved that the matchup lived up to the hype, although I’m sure Ole Miss will be looking forward to less stressful games… which they probably won’t be getting. While Lane Kiffin appears to have the offense chugging along, and the defense is serviceable so far, Georgia Tech are less of a pushover compared to last year, and Alabama in Week 4 is waiting in the wings. Not to mention, the rest of the SEC West would love to take advantage of an exhausted Ole Miss roster to propel their own chance at making it to Atlanta. It doesn't get easier from here for the Rebels, though if they make it through their brutal schedule with just one loss? CFP Playoffs are not out of the realm of possibility.
16 North Carolina Tar Heels If there is one constant that P5 teams need to learn in the modern era of college football, it’s that Appalachian State is the single worst team to crop up on your schedule. As a G5 school, they don’t get the respect they deserve when you see them on paper, they’re able to upset even the mightiest of blue bloods on their best day, and every game a P5 has with them is fraught with heart attacks. UNC found that out for the second year in a row, when they squeaked by the Mountaineers in 2OT. Unfortunately for Tar Heel supporters, UNC’s season doesn’t really get much easier from this point on, despite the victories; Minnesota makes the trek down south for Week 3, and ACC play starts Week 4, with a difficult slate (though most of their tougher games are at home). Drake Maye needs to continue last season’s form if UNC wishes to repeat last year’s ACC Championship Game appearance.
17 Duke Blue Devils After their stunning Week 1 beatdown of Clemson, Duke went out and did something that about 90% of P5 teams did this weekend; invite an FCS team to their stadium just to beat them down over 4 quarters for a hefty sum. Duke’s opponent of choice was FCS’s Lafayette, who showed resolve but ultimately fell to the Blue Devils 42-7. This weekend, Duke hosts a team reeling from its own controversy in the B1G’s Northwestern and should be able to continue their winning ways. UConn and Notre Dame follow in the Weeks to come, with a tough ACC road still ahead. Coach Elko needs to keep momentum going to prevent Duke stumbling in what could be a historic season.
18 Colorado Buffaloes What happens when you combine seemingly undeserved preseason hype thanks to a coaching change with one of the toughest schedules in the country? As it turns out, you get a team like this year’s Colorado, who have gone out and have at least quieted all the discussion around their legitimacy for now (albeit with the caveat that neither TCU nor Nebraska look all that good this year). It wouldn’t be an overstatement to refer to this team as one of the hottest in the nation, and now they look to continue their streak under Prime Time when they host in-state rival Colorado State in their last weekend of non-conference play before challenging the Oregon Ducks in Week 4. There’s still concern over depth and how truly talented this brand new roster is, but it’s hard to counter their current success and position as being unmerited.
19 Oklahoma Sooners Despite the “best” efforts of OC Lebby to absolutely ruin what should’ve been a statement win against one of the best G5s in SMU and his continued pouting on social media, the Sooners followed up their demoralizing victory of Arkansas State with a nervy but resolute 28-11 victory over the Mustangs last weekend. Given the current uncertainty hanging over the program thanks to their overshadowed debacle of allowing, of all people, Art Briles onto the field after the game (thanks Lebby), Oklahoma is a bit of a tough team to place, though the defense looks amazing and the offense could definitely use some reworking. There’s still a bit of time to get everything sorted, as Oklahoma plays at in-state Tulsa this weekend before Big XII conference play kicks off.
20 Washington State Cougars The Wazzu faithful received a prized scalp last weekend, as they took down the Wisconsin Badgers in a scrappy but still strong showing, limiting the visitors to just 22 points. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows and fun rushing the field, as there’s a lot of uncertainty about how good this team actually is, and whether they can continue their form in an extremely challenging in-conference slate, but their two victories to start off the year certainly can’t hurt. Their attention now shifts to their Week 3 bout against FCS Western Colorado, and then their Week 4 game against fellow PAC-12 refugee Oregon State. Any hope likely lies with QB Ward continuing his form in the weeks to come.
21 Miami Hurricanes Is Miami… back? Who really knows, but at least they proved that, despite the addition of Bobby Petrino to the Texas A&M Offensive Coordinator position, they’re still better than the Aggies in their 48-33 scorigami win. This builds off of their dominant 38-3 Week 1 victory against Ohio’s Miami, and should mean that the Hurricanes will enter ACC play at 4-0, as long as everything goes to plan. This weekend’s matchup against FCS HBCU Bethune-Cookman should be an easy win for Year 2 HC Mario Cristobal, though perhaps the game at Temple in Week 4 could prove to be a trap that derails the season. We’ll have to see if Miami actually returns to something resembling their magical run in the 80s and 90s, or if we’re just under the illusion of a good program in Coral Gables once again.
22 UCLA Bruins The Bruins have not been too impressive in their victories so far at home vs Coastal Carolina who lost a good bit of production from last year’s 9-win outfit and at San Diego State, who have seemingly regressed under Coach Brady Hoke (sound familiar, Michigan fans?). Regardless, a score differential against decent G5 opposition of +39 isn’t anything to scoff at, and so the Bruins find themselves making the jump into the top 25 for the first time. QB 5-star Dante Moore looks like the real deal despite Chip Kelly’s insistence on a battle, and a relatively weak PAC-12 schedule (well, as weak as it gets in this year’s absolutely loaded conference) should see UCLA continue their good record under him, starting with a presumed victory over FCS NC Central this weekend.
23 Iowa Hawkeyes El Assico has come and gone, and while the Hawkeyes won, it again wasn’t a pretty one. While it’s hard to punish Iowa too hard for their first-half performance, a lame duck of a 4th quarter showing on both sides of the ball makes it difficult to consider them an outright favorite in the tumultuous B1G West, especially with continued issues on offense regardless of opponent. Encouraging signs on the typically stout defensive line and special teams will not save them in their current state, when they roll into Penn State’s Beaver Stadium in Week 4. Hopefully they can use the game against MAC’s Western Michigan to iron out some of the kinks before facing the Nittany Lions.
24 Fresno State Bulldogs Sometimes, when a team can’t seem to be able to do what it wants to, they need to dig deep and grind out wins, even if it’s nothing pretty. And don’t get me wrong, there was absolutely nothing pretty about Fresno State’s 34-31 2OT win against FCS Eastern Washington. It was so ugly I considered dropping the Bulldogs entirely from my top 25, but they at least managed to escape 2-0, and their Week 1 win over Purdue still looks pretty good, so here they stay for now. It’s possible they got caught looking ahead to this weekend’s matchup against 1-1 Arizona State, but they’ll need to return to their Week 1 form if they want to pull off another G5 over P5 triumph.
25 Louisville Cardinals A dramatic Week 1 win against Georgia Tech in the Aflac Kickoff Game that proved Coach Satterfield’s prowess was followed up by a routine dispatching of FCS Murray State 56-0. There’s not much to dislike about the Cardinals so far (aside from that horrendous 2nd quarter performance against the Yellow Jackets), and while the 9 QBs they played against Murray State is likely not the answer to their problems at the position, there’s enough talent in the roster to make serious inroads towards a potential ACC Title Game berth, though that schedule looks much more daunting now. A game at perennial B1G East bottomfeeder Indiana should see them jump to 3-0 before continuing ACC play.

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