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70stang Ballot for 2023 Week 3

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 10, 2023, 5:59 p.m.

Overall Rationale: My poll is a hybrid, foremost using an algorithm with the possibility of human adjustment under strict parameters. I defer to the algorithm as much as possible, and human adjustment only happens between comparable teams (especially where head to head losses will eventually be concerned). The most important factor in my algorithm is pure win-loss record, and therefore the teams that played week zero games and remain 3-0 will sit at the top of the list. After pure win-loss record, the next most important factor is the quality of opponents. I break this up into 3 major categories, P5, G5, and FCS. Non-ND independents are slotted into G5. For human adjustment I consider the AAC and MWC to sit above other G5 conferences, but only for human adjustment. A win against Georgia State counts the same as a win against Tulane in my algorithm. The third factor that I consider is where the games were played. A win over a P5 team in their own house counts for more than a win over a P5 team in your house, etc. Once all of these factors have been considered by the algorithm and my poll is divided into rough tiers, human adjustment comes into play. For example, CU and Utah both have two wins over P5 teams, one each home and away. I considered CU's wins to be better than Utah's, therefore they are ranked above Utah in their same tier. Human adjustment is something I am trying extremely hard to use as little as possible. This early in the season my algorithm does not have much data to work with. It will improve each week, and by week 5 or 6 I should be putting out some real results.

Rank Team Reason
1 USC Trojans USC is one of only two teams to be 3-0, and has beaten two G5 teams and one P5 team. They are the only 3-0 team not to have played an FCS school.
2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish ND is the other 3-0 team, and has beaten one P5 team, one G5 team, and one FCS team.
3 Colorado Buffaloes Colorado is 2-0 having beaten 2 P5 teams, one home and one away. They are ranked over Utah here due to human adjustment, as I think the teams Colorado beat and the way in which they beat them shines a little brighter for CU than for the Utes.
4 Utah Utes Utah is 2-0 having beaten 2 P5 teams, one home and one away.
5 Texas Longhorns Texas is the first of the 2-0 teams in my ranking that did not beat two P5 opponents. They beat an AAC G5 school and a P5 team in their own house, and sit at the top of this category (2-0 teams who have played one P5 and one G5 team) over teams like UNC or Iowa due to human adjustment.
6 North Carolina Tar Heels UNC is 2-0, having beaten one P5 team in their own house and one G5 team at home (albeit an OT win)
7 Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa is 2-0, having beaten one P5 team in their own house and one G5 team at home.
8 Washington State Cougars Wazzu has beaten one P5 team at home, and one G5 team in their own house.
9 Florida State Seminoles FSU has beaten one P5 team at home and one G5 team at home.
10 Miami Hurricanes Miami has beaten one P5 team at home and one G5 team at home.
11 Auburn Tigers Auburn has beaten one P5 team in their own house and one independent (considered G5 for the purposes of this poll) team at home.
12 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati is the first of the 2-0 teams with wins over both a P5 team and an FCS team. Cincinnati beat a P5 team in their own house and an FCS team at home. They sit higher than teams like Oregon or Ohio State or Auburn because I think their quality of opponent and the way in which they beat them reflects better.
13 Oregon Ducks Oregon has beaten one P5 team in their own house and one FCS team at home.
14 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State has beaten one P5 team in their own house and one FCS team at home.
15 Louisville Cardinals Louisville has beaten one P5 team in their own house and one FCS team at home.
16 Washington Huskies Washington has beaten two G5 teams at home; for the purposes of this poll I consider wins against two G5 teams to sit higher than wins against a P5 team and an FCS team if each of these wins is at home.
17 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma has beaten two G5 teams at home.
18 Minnesota Golden Gophers Minnesota has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
19 Duke Blue Devils Duke has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
20 Kansas Jayhawks Kansas has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
21 Mississippi State Bulldogs Mississippi State has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
22 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
23 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS team at home.
24 Wyoming Cowboys Wyoming has beaten one P5 team at home and one FCS at home.
25 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss has beaten one G5 team in their own house and one FCS team at home.

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