Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 10, 2023, 2:44 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	3.43
2	Utah Utes	3.32
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	3.30
4	Michigan Wolverines	3.23
5	Oregon State Beavers	3.22
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	3.21
7	Oregon Ducks	3.21
8	USC Trojans	3.19
9	Washington Huskies	3.15
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	3.03
11	Florida State Seminoles	3.03
12	Texas Longhorns	2.98
13	Tennessee Volunteers	2.97
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2.94
15	UCLA Bruins	2.90
16	Washington State Cougars	2.84
17	Kansas State Wildcats	2.83
18	Ole Miss Rebels	2.74
19	Oklahoma Sooners	2.73
20	Mississippi State Bulldogs	2.67
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	2.67
22	Minnesota Golden Gophers	2.67
23	LSU Tigers	2.64
24	Louisville Cardinals	2.61
25	Clemson Tigers	2.54

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Utah Utes	1.95
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.31
4	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
5	Oregon State Beavers	2.10
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
7	Oregon Ducks	0.94
8	USC Trojans	0.00
9	Washington Huskies	0.00
10	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.15
11	Florida State Seminoles	-3.07
12	Texas Longhorns	-2.21
13	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
14	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-0.79
15	UCLA Bruins	0.98
16	Washington State Cougars	0.79
17	Kansas State Wildcats	0.00
18	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
19	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
20	Mississippi State Bulldogs	4.43
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.07
22	Minnesota Golden Gophers	2.83
23	LSU Tigers	-0.02
24	Louisville Cardinals	0.76
25	Clemson Tigers	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Colorado Buffaloes	0.87
Duke Blue Devils	0.97
North Carolina Tar Heels	0.93
Miami Hurricanes	0.32

Total Score: 24.49