Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 6, 2022, 10:59 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Likelihood of wins+: A metric that rewards good performance against difficult opponents. If a team plays a nobody schedule, they don't deserve by default a high rank until they prove it on the field against good competition. It attempts to answer the question of how likely is it that an average team would have the same record or better. The values shown are that computed likelihood. This methodology is more volatile earlier in the season.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00057549
2	Georgia Bulldogs	0.000703181
3	TCU Horned Frogs	0.00111719
4	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00167623
5	Michigan Wolverines	0.00256865
6	Oregon Ducks	0.0115581
7	LSU Tigers	0.0117558
8	Clemson Tigers	0.0167006
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.0202901
10	UCLA Bruins	0.0234239
11	USC Trojans	0.0247667
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.0357238
13	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.0392372
14	NC State Wolfpack	0.0470129
15	Troy Trojans	0.0657843
16	Utah Utes	0.0663561
17	Tulane Green Wave	0.0683483
18	Ole Miss Rebels	0.0788704
19	Kansas State Wildcats	0.0865294
20	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.0920683
21	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.0981434
22	Liberty Flames	0.0999666
23	UCF Knights	0.113231
24	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.119048
25	Texas Longhorns	0.119971

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.65
2	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.16
3	TCU Horned Frogs	0.00
4	Tennessee Volunteers	0.29
5	Michigan Wolverines	-1.30
6	Oregon Ducks	0.00
7	LSU Tigers	0.05
8	Clemson Tigers	0.45
9	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.05
10	UCLA Bruins	0.00
11	USC Trojans	-0.04
12	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.04
13	North Carolina Tar Heels	0.00
14	NC State Wolfpack	0.72
15	Troy Trojans	9.85
16	Utah Utes	-0.36
17	Tulane Green Wave	0.00
18	Ole Miss Rebels	-2.02
19	Kansas State Wildcats	0.01
20	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	0.91
21	Oklahoma State Cowboys	4.01
22	Liberty Flames	0.00
23	UCF Knights	0.00
24	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
25	Texas Longhorns	-0.67

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Illinois Fighting Illini	0.97
Washington Huskies	0.57
Florida State Seminoles	0.10

Total Score: 23.23