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ThePelvicWoo Ballot for 2022 Week 3

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 13, 2022, 8:50 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Relying heavily on beta_rank (sharpcollegefootball.com) but adjusting for actual wins/losses. Beta Rank is pretty shaky early on in the year because it still relies heavily on last year's data as well as returning production projections. Beta_Rank IMO starts to round into form after week 4, and is a really good representation of each team after week 6. I'm trying to smooth out occasions where the model clearly gets it wrong (like having LSU at number 5 this week), but if there are some strange looking rankings, just give it some time. For example, the model hates Baylor. If Baylor ends up being good it'll correct over the next couple weeks.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs Beta_Rank number 2 but with how sloppy Alabama looked against Texas I'll give Georgia the nod here
2 Alabama Crimson Tide It's still Alabama, they'll be fine
3 Ohio State Buckeyes That win against Notre Dame doesn't look as good now, eh?
4 Clemson Tigers Still needs to figure out offense
5 Michigan Wolverines Beta_rank number 7, but beta_rank still has Notre Dame and LSU (LOL) ahead of them. Obviously Michigan
6 Mississippi State Bulldogs Clanga
7 Oklahoma Sooners So far so good
8 Penn State Nittany Lions Beta_Rank is pretty high on Penn State, let's see it against Auburn
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys So far so good
10 USC Trojans Offense humming along nicely
11 Miami Hurricanes Interesting game against A&M this week
12 Ole Miss Rebels Still benefiting from last year's offense in the model
13 Minnesota Golden Gophers Boring but effective
14 Washington Huskies Offense appears to be fixed, and the model is starting to pick up on that
15 Auburn Tigers Beta_rank is a believer but I think the wheels come off here
16 Texas Longhorns Good showing against Alabama
17 Utah Utes Beta_Rank number 10, dropped for losing @ Florida. Florida losing against Kentucky doesn't help
18 Wisconsin Badgers Beta_rank number 14, knocked for losing against Wazzu at home
19 Texas A&M Aggies Beta_Rank number 11. I think this team is probably ass but we'll wait for the model to confirm
20 North Carolina Tar Heels Similar to A&M, I think this team probably stinks but we'll give the model the benefit of the doubt
21 SMU Mustangs Not sure what the model sees here tbh but we'll roll with it
22 Tennessee Volunteers This is a fun team
23 Air Force Falcons *sad Buffalo noises*
24 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Got their QB back
25 BYU Cougars

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