Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 13, 2022, 8:50 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Relying heavily on beta_rank (sharpcollegefootball.com) but adjusting for actual wins/losses. Beta Rank is pretty shaky early on in the year because it still relies heavily on last year's data as well as returning production projections. Beta_Rank IMO starts to round into form after week 4, and is a really good representation of each team after week 6. I'm trying to smooth out occasions where the model clearly gets it wrong (like having LSU at number 5 this week), but if there are some strange looking rankings, just give it some time. For example, the model hates Baylor. If Baylor ends up being good it'll correct over the next couple weeks.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | Beta_Rank number 2 but with how sloppy Alabama looked against Texas I'll give Georgia the nod here |
2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | It's still Alabama, they'll be fine |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | That win against Notre Dame doesn't look as good now, eh? |
4 | Clemson Tigers | Still needs to figure out offense |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | Beta_rank number 7, but beta_rank still has Notre Dame and LSU (LOL) ahead of them. Obviously Michigan |
6 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | Clanga |
7 | Oklahoma Sooners | So far so good |
8 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Beta_Rank is pretty high on Penn State, let's see it against Auburn |
9 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | So far so good |
10 | USC Trojans | Offense humming along nicely |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | Interesting game against A&M this week |
12 | Ole Miss Rebels | Still benefiting from last year's offense in the model |
13 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Boring but effective |
14 | Washington Huskies | Offense appears to be fixed, and the model is starting to pick up on that |
15 | Auburn Tigers | Beta_rank is a believer but I think the wheels come off here |
16 | Texas Longhorns | Good showing against Alabama |
17 | Utah Utes | Beta_Rank number 10, dropped for losing @ Florida. Florida losing against Kentucky doesn't help |
18 | Wisconsin Badgers | Beta_rank number 14, knocked for losing against Wazzu at home |
19 | Texas A&M Aggies | Beta_Rank number 11. I think this team is probably ass but we'll wait for the model to confirm |
20 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Similar to A&M, I think this team probably stinks but we'll give the model the benefit of the doubt |
21 | SMU Mustangs | Not sure what the model sees here tbh but we'll roll with it |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | This is a fun team |
23 | Air Force Falcons | *sad Buffalo noises* |
24 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | Got their QB back |
25 | BYU Cougars |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
3 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
4 | Clemson Tigers | 0.08 |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
6 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 3.68 |
7 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
8 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 1.33 |
9 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.00 |
10 | USC Trojans | 0.00 |
11 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.32 |
12 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.96 |
13 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 4.74 |
14 | Washington Huskies | 10.92 |
15 | Auburn Tigers | 10.00 |
16 | Texas Longhorns | 0.77 |
17 | Utah Utes | 0.00 |
18 | Wisconsin Badgers | 7.03 |
19 | Texas A&M Aggies | 2.40 |
20 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.52 |
21 | SMU Mustangs | 3.58 |
22 | Tennessee Volunteers | -0.98 |
23 | Air Force Falcons | 0.76 |
24 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -0.48 |
25 | BYU Cougars | -2.51 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Kentucky Wildcats | 3.88 |
Arkansas Razorbacks | 3.65 |
Michigan State Spartans | 2.38 |
NC State Wolfpack | 1.09 |
Baylor Bears | 0.85 |
Florida Gators | 0.44 |
Marshall Thundering Herd | 0.07 |
Total Score: 63.40