Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 13, 2022, 8:50 a.m.
Overall Rationale: Relying heavily on beta_rank (sharpcollegefootball.com) but adjusting for actual wins/losses. Beta Rank is pretty shaky early on in the year because it still relies heavily on last year's data as well as returning production projections. Beta_Rank IMO starts to round into form after week 4, and is a really good representation of each team after week 6. I'm trying to smooth out occasions where the model clearly gets it wrong (like having LSU at number 5 this week), but if there are some strange looking rankings, just give it some time. For example, the model hates Baylor. If Baylor ends up being good it'll correct over the next couple weeks.
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 |
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Beta_Rank number 2 but with how sloppy Alabama looked against Texas I'll give Georgia the nod here |
2 |
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It's still Alabama, they'll be fine |
3 |
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That win against Notre Dame doesn't look as good now, eh? |
4 |
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Still needs to figure out offense |
5 |
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Beta_rank number 7, but beta_rank still has Notre Dame and LSU (LOL) ahead of them. Obviously Michigan |
6 |
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Clanga |
7 |
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So far so good |
8 |
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Beta_Rank is pretty high on Penn State, let's see it against Auburn |
9 |
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So far so good |
10 |
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Offense humming along nicely |
11 |
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Interesting game against A&M this week |
12 |
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Still benefiting from last year's offense in the model |
13 |
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Boring but effective |
14 |
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Offense appears to be fixed, and the model is starting to pick up on that |
15 |
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Beta_rank is a believer but I think the wheels come off here |
16 |
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Good showing against Alabama |
17 |
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Beta_Rank number 10, dropped for losing @ Florida. Florida losing against Kentucky doesn't help |
18 |
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Beta_rank number 14, knocked for losing against Wazzu at home |
19 |
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Beta_Rank number 11. I think this team is probably ass but we'll wait for the model to confirm |
20 |
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Similar to A&M, I think this team probably stinks but we'll give the model the benefit of the doubt |
21 |
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Not sure what the model sees here tbh but we'll roll with it |
22 |
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This is a fun team |
23 |
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*sad Buffalo noises* |
24 |
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Got their QB back |
25 |
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Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 |
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0.00 |
2 |
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0.00 |
3 |
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0.00 |
4 |
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0.08 |
5 |
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0.00 |
6 |
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3.68 |
7 |
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0.00 |
8 |
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1.33 |
9 |
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0.00 |
10 |
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0.00 |
11 |
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0.32 |
12 |
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0.96 |
13 |
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4.74 |
14 |
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10.92 |
15 |
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10.00 |
16 |
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0.77 |
17 |
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0.00 |
18 |
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7.03 |
19 |
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2.40 |
20 |
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0.52 |
21 |
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3.58 |
22 |
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-0.98 |
23 |
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0.76 |
24 |
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-0.48 |
25 |
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-2.51 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
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3.88 |
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3.65 |
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2.38 |
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1.09 |
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0.85 |
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0.44 |
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0.07 |
Total Score: 63.40