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crownebeach Ballot for 2022 Week 2

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 6, 2022, 8:50 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of my rankings as an NCAA 14-style 99-point rating rather than a playoff ranking. A 94 overall team can beat a 99 overall, but the 99 is still "better." Rankings based on my expectations of a team's personnel and scheme, and some review of FPI's preseason projections. I give a slight bump for teams with coaching continuity and/or offseason coordinator hires I perceive as improvements. Recruiting rankings are incorporated into SP+ and FPI, so I look at those metrics to judge a team but do not separately evaluate recruiting (in order to avoid double-counting). Week 1 games are factored in, but with the exception of massive over- and underperformance relative to expectation, the effect of games played is still very small.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs I was concerned about what the defending champs lost before the season started. I am no longer concerned. About anything. I was especially impressed by Stetson Bennett's pocket presence; the Oregon pass rush was about the only thing the Ducks did passably well in that game, and ol' Stetson just stood in and kept letting it rip.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Was my original pick for No. 1, before whatever the hell it was Georgia just did. I am not worried about the offense. I think Ryan Day made an executive decision to try to win this game gritty and ugly, just to prove that they could, and they can. A very good Notre Dame offensive line was absolutely powerless in the run game. Ohio State has a top-25 returning production grade on top of a phenomenal talent grade and they're going to be nearly unstoppable.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide I didn't expect anything all that informative from a game against Utah State. Bama is Bama.
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Awesome defensive effort, and I really like what I see from their quarterback. I don't think this team looks like a title threat, but...they're not far off. They could run the table and get in, and if they've settled into an offensive identity by that point, I do think they could threaten 1-3 on some level. The talent is there if they ever find The Guy at quarterback.
5 Oklahoma Sooners I refuse to worry about Oklahoma until they actually look bad. Their roster is still the best in the Big 12 and one of the best in the country, they have an offense that can put up numbers, and they took their defensive woes as seriously as humanly possible with their HC hire. They have a lot of returning production on the side of the ball that actually needed it, and they'll score points in their sleep with the weapons they have at the skill positions.
6 Michigan Wolverines Like Georgia, I have concerns about what they lost. Unlike Georgia, they didn't have much of an opportunity for a statement win to settle my doubts. They're gonna be very good but I do not expect them to be a threat to Ohio State this time around.
7 Utah Utes I don't really think much less of Utah than I did before. Overall, Utah's starters can run with anybody in the country and Rising is impossible to scheme against -- but he makes some unforced errors, and their depth or lack thereof makes me nervous. I rate Billy Napier and Florida both quite highly so no drop in a loss. The one thing that gives me pause is the linebackers -- they looked slow and easily confused by UF's run game.
8 Clemson Tigers This offensive line is legit crap. *Georgia Tech* pushed these guys around up front. But the defense is characteristically excellent, so they're still likely to have an excellent season. I agree with the consensus that Klubnik looked better than D.J., but I want to remind everyone that in limited action as a freshman, D.J. looked nearly as good as Trevor Lawrence; small sample sizes and not a lot of film can do wonders for a guy!
9 Oklahoma State Cowboys I like the hire of Derek Mason a lot. He's a great coach and to the extent that anyone can shore up the loss of Jim Knowles, he can. But they also return the least defensive production in the P5. They're going to leak points like a sieve no matter who's coaching. I just think they're too talented and too well-coached not to do well anyway.
10 USC Trojans I mean...I guess? They're up here because they have a bunch of talent and because there are a lot of teams that I think kinda suck. They're going to score points but Rice does not have a good enough offense to really satisfy me that the other side of the ball is good.
11 Penn State Nittany Lions I'm probably gonna be way on the high side here: I know they looked rotten against Purdue, but I am something of a Sean Clifford believer, and their defense has a lot of pieces I think are very compelling. Would be a threat in the East in an era where Ohio State wasn't recruiting like the Royal Navy.
12 Arkansas Razorbacks Another team that feels too high, but they have a quarterback I trust in a season where a lot of things don't seem trustworthy. Didn't blow Cincinnati out of the water but definitely had an opportunity to win more comfortably than they ended up doing.
13 NC State Wolfpack This team has so much talent, and their offense is just out here running Pop Warner sets. They're not going to reach their full potential, but I do look forward to seeing Clemson try to block these guys.
14 Texas A&M Aggies No idea what to do here. Lots of talent, weird bad quarterback situation, and a scheme that feels both clever and uninspired offensively. They're gonna be well-coached but I don't think they have that X-factor they need to actually contend for the West. If they played Florida tomorrow it would be a coin flip.
15 Florida Gators I think this is a really good football team. I do have concerns about their passing offense; their run game is sufficiently dynamic to score points against most teams, even ones with good defenses, but they benefited from a favorable matchup against Utah and I think other teams that sell out to stop the run will have more success against them. But overall, I thought their lines both held up well against a team that is demonstrably quality.
16 Baylor Bears I think Dave Aranda is a very good coach, but I just honestly don't think the players are especially amazing. They're going to be solid but I don't understand them getting first place votes in the Big 12.
17 SMU Mustangs I worry that I have SMU too high under a first-year head coach, but the fit seems good, and they really have some exceptional talent at the skill positions. I am betting a little bit on their offense to generate sparks.
18 Oregon Ducks I do not think the gap between Georgia and Oregon is quite as big as it looked, but it's still pretty big. Bo Nix continues to be a genuinely poor P5 quarterback -- I have no idea what anyone sees in him, and I'm not going to stop saying it just because he plays for a team I like now. Bench. Immediately.
19 Cincinnati Bearcats Cincinnati is likely going to be a top-15 team by the end of the season, but they have some serious gaps to fill, and they don't seem to really know who is going to step up and lead. Against a team less run-heavy than Arkansas, their opener could have gotten a lot more sideways, but I definitely think they'll get better -- cupboard isn't at all bare.
20 Wisconsin Badgers Defense and a great young running back. Wisconsin is business as usual. I don't think they're a lock to win the West, but they're definitely the favorite.
21 Pittsburgh Panthers I am nervous about what I saw from Pitt. They gave up a lot of yardage to WVU on the ground, which shouldn't be happening when you have the bodies and the scheme that they do. And Slovis is a thoroughly whelming QB, not special in any way. I think they're gonna go like 9-3, but I'm not as confident as I was.
22 Texas Tech Red Raiders Call it intuition. They have an excellent crop of wide receivers, and although they don't return very much production overall, they have experience at the back end of their defense. I think their blowout win in the opener was a sign of good things to come.
23 Minnesota Golden Gophers I rate P.J. Fleck highly, and they have two things going for them offensively: 1) a lot of returning production, and 2) Mike Sanford is someone else's problem now. The Gophers are going to be a problem in that division race.
24 Tennessee Volunteers I don't know if Josh Heupel is a great head coach, but he runs a magnificent offense, and in a league where I'm not sure about a bunch of stuff, that's gonna be enough to rattle off wins. I think they have enough talent to really pick apart most defenses in the country, and Hendon Hooker is good enough to win games on his own.
25 Miami Hurricanes I don't know what I think of Miami. I think Mario Cristobal is a good program-builder, but I think his game management borders on idiotic. I like their quarterback, but I don't think he's as good as everyone else seems to. They bring back a lot on defense, and relatively little on offense, which makes me think they're going to get into rock fights and likely lose some of them (Pitt comes to mind). They're good but I'm not picking them for the division.

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