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boonamobile Ballot for 2018 Week 2

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 5, 2018, 7:36 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a backward looking resume-based computer poll that always rewards victory and always punishes defeat, with weight given to relative competition level (FCS, G5, P5). Like last year, the algorithm accounts for the record of the teams you play as well as those teams' opponents' records. The poll has been tweaked this year to add some new features, such as accounting for margin of victory/defeat by comparing the score differential from each game to each team's average score differential throughout the season. The algorithm also now accounts for 'game control', which I have defined as the ratio of points scored by each team (i.e., you are rewarded more for a 40-0 shutout [100% of points scored] than for a 70-30 blowout [70% of points scored], and punished less for a relatively narrow 52-49 defeat than a 3-0 shutout). This has the effect of slightly punishing victorious teams with bad defenses (i.e., a less complete team) and losing teams with bad offenses, while rewarding victorious teams with good defenses and losing teams with good offenses. I expect the poll results to fluctuate violently in the first few weeks until the sample size increases enough to provide reasonable statistics. 

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