/r/CFB Poll

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game.

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Indiana Hoosiers	2.080 [11.30-0.70]
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	1.613 [10.95-1.05]
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	1.579 [9.51-2.49]
4	Miami Hurricanes	1.430 [10.67-1.33]
5	Oregon Ducks	1.356 [9.70-2.30]
6	Texas Longhorns	1.276 [8.61-3.39]
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	1.250 [9.07-2.93]
8	Ole Miss Rebels	1.192 [8.61-3.39]
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.182 [10.07-1.93]
10	Georgia Bulldogs	1.133 [8.67-3.33]
11	Utah Utes	1.117 [10.34-1.66]
12	Texas A&M Aggies	1.110 [8.39-3.61]
13	Oklahoma Sooners	1.096 [8.05-3.95]
14	Washington Huskies	1.035 [7.96-4.04]
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	1.021 [8.84-3.16]
16	LSU Tigers	1.015 [7.98-4.02]
17	Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.990 [10.52-1.48]
18	USC Trojans	0.981 [7.76-4.24]
19	Vanderbilt Commodores	0.856 [7.58-4.42]
20	Tennessee Volunteers	0.771 [6.83-5.17]
21	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.762 [7.05-4.95]
22	SMU Mustangs	0.760 [8.96-3.04]
23	BYU Cougars	0.750 [8.14-3.86]
24	Michigan Wolverines	0.747 [6.22-5.78]
25	Florida Gators	0.705 [6.37-5.63]

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Indiana Hoosiers	0.33
2	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.28
3	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
4	Miami Hurricanes	0.00
5	Oregon Ducks	0.00
6	Texas Longhorns	0.00
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.79
8	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	1.34
10	Georgia Bulldogs	-0.26
11	Utah Utes	1.64
12	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
13	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
14	Washington Huskies	1.12
15	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.90
16	LSU Tigers	-0.89
17	Texas Tech Red Raiders	0.00
18	USC Trojans	-0.32
19	Vanderbilt Commodores	5.83
20	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
21	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.70
22	SMU Mustangs	0.00
23	BYU Cougars	-1.14
24	Michigan Wolverines	0.81
25	Florida Gators	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Virginia Cavaliers	0.20
Houston Cougars	0.31
Louisville Cardinals	0.02

Total Score: 16.87

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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2026 Week 2

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