Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 26, 2022, 8:55 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Heavily relying on Beta_Rank (sharpcollegefootball.com) but adjusting for actual wins/losses. IMO this is a good compromise of weighing how good a team is vs what they've actually accomplished. For example, the model loves LSU and Mississippi State, but they have 1 loss, so they should be punished for that. They are clearly the best 1 loss teams though and should be put ahead of undefeateds with weak resumes. The big omission here is Kentucky, which the model hates. If they start winning in conference play they'll shoot up the rankings.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Georgia Bulldogs	Beta rank number 1
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	Beta rank number 2
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	Beta rank number 3
4	Minnesota Golden Gophers	Bit surprised to see them grab the number 4 spot but hey, they've been impressive
5	Ole Miss Rebels	Not sold on this at all, but I'll trust the math until they drop a game
6	Clemson Tigers	Their offense and defensive ratings don't warrant a top 10 spot. As the model continues to phase out offseason data they will continue to slide
7	USC Trojans	Offense took a hit from the Oregon State game, but their defense got a bump in the ratings
8	Michigan Wolverines	Surprised they are this low in the model. The model respects Maryland so that was a good win, but their OOC schedule is weighing them down.
9	Washington Huskies	Still a little shaky defensively but beta_rank has this as the 9th best offense, even ahead of USC
10	Tennessee Volunteers	Offense grades out really well
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	Model not overly impressed by Penn State, but they're undefeated
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys	Very little data on this team still, they've only played 2 FBS games
13	LSU Tigers	Beta_rank number 4
14	Mississippi State Bulldogs	Beta_rank #5
15	Florida State Seminoles	Still undefeated
16	Oklahoma Sooners	Still one of the best 1 loss teams
17	Utah Utes	Since the Florida loss they've been cruising through an easy schedule
18	Oregon Ducks	Being propped up by the 12th ranked offense, which is scary when Bo Nix is the QB. Lots of work to do defensively
19	Maryland Terrapins	Close loss against a strongly rated Michigan
20	Pittsburgh Panthers	Defense grades out at number 5, offense is pretty pedestrian
21	NC State Wolfpack	Undefeated but meh
22	UCLA Bruins	They've played NOBODY. We'll find out what they are against Washington
23	Cincinnati Bearcats	They're ok
24	Texas A&M Aggies	I wish some other teams would jump up so I could stop ranking A&M. 104th rated offense.
25	James Madison Dukes	I just said fuck it because they've been impressive, and the model doesn't have any preseason data on them so it isn't going to properly rate them for a couple more weeks

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.00
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
4	Minnesota Golden Gophers	1.31
5	Ole Miss Rebels	1.40
6	Clemson Tigers	0.00
7	USC Trojans	0.00
8	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
9	Washington Huskies	0.55
10	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
11	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.00
12	Oklahoma State Cowboys	0.00
13	LSU Tigers	5.01
14	Mississippi State Bulldogs	10.07
15	Florida State Seminoles	0.00
16	Oklahoma Sooners	0.03
17	Utah Utes	0.00
18	Oregon Ducks	0.00
19	Maryland Terrapins	6.03
20	Pittsburgh Panthers	0.97
21	NC State Wolfpack	-1.52
22	UCLA Bruins	0.18
23	Cincinnati Bearcats	0.00
24	Texas A&M Aggies	0.00
25	James Madison Dukes	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Kentucky Wildcats	3.73
Baylor Bears	0.83
Kansas Jayhawks	0.33
BYU Cougars	0.44
Arkansas Razorbacks	0.45
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.23
Syracuse Orange	0.06

Total Score: 33.15