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Due_Connection179 Ballot for 2022 Week 5

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 26, 2022, 9:18 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I call this: THE GREAT RESET! Now that OOC is over (for the most part), I went through all of the 4-0, 3-0 (Oklahoma State & TCU), and 3-1 teams and re-ranked them based off of strength of schedule, win margins, and game film. The SEC & Big Ten are "top heavy" while the ACC & PAC-12 are "good but not great" heavy, so that was interesting to see. I'm happy to answer any questions about this poll (especially the surpises at #13 & #25), but for the most part I feel very good about this poll as a whole. "Next 8" on my polls: Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington State, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Tulane, Kansas State, and TCU.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs That "close" game vs Kent State meant basically nothing to me. Georgia still has the most impressive win over the season (the thrashing of now #16 Oregon 49-3 opening weekend) and still has an unbelieve average win differential of 34.25 pts per game. Honestly though, the next month should be a cakewalk, then we can start talking about them again in November.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide With Texas losing again to Texas Tech this past weekend, Alabama's close win over the Longhorns will probably eventually cause Ohio State to jump them in my poll, but whether a team is #2 or #3 at the end of the season doesn't matter since they will play each other anyways. Alabama will be on upset alert though over the next 3 weeks with at #21 Arkansas, vs #18 Texas A&M, then at #10 Tennessee back-to-back-to-back.
3 Ohio State Buckeyes Since their terrible opening half vs Notre Dame, Ohio State has looked like an absolute machine. 3rd quarter vs Notre Dame on they have outscored opponents 188 to 54 (33.5 PPG differential). The Buckeyes really only have two "surefire" challenges the rest of the way: 10/29 at #9 Penn State & 11/26 vs #8 Michigan. Outside of those two games, they should be able to put it on cruise control with how much talent they have.
4 USC Trojans I flipped back and forth between Clemson & USC a lot this week. I'm higher on Oregon State than most people currently are, and that Fresno State stomping shouldn't be overlooked. The Trojans need a big-time win over Arizona State this week and need to take care of a sneaky good Washington State team before traveling to #11 Utah for what could decide USC's PAC-12 fate with them not playing #16 Oregon in the regular season.
5 Clemson Tigers The only reason I'm holding Clemson back at #5 this week is because of how terrible their offense looked in the first three games of the season against bad teams (at Georgia Tech, vs Furman, vs Louisiana Tech). Their offense looked good at #19 Wake Forest, but one game isn't going to change my mind about a team. They host #12 NC State this week (who has a pretty good defense), so with a win (and solid offensive showing) there won't be a doubt that they jump USC in the polls next week.
6 Kentucky Wildcats This is truly a love pick, and I understand that. Wins over Miami (OH), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois (by only 8 pts), and what we now know is probably an average Florida team is nothing to write home about, however Kentucky is 4-0 and their QB & defense looked to be very good. Their game at #15 Ole Miss this week is a must watch for me personally. Big "put up or shut up" game for them this week.
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys My pre-season #4 team. Looked sloppy vs Central Michigan opening weekend, then looked decent against Arizona State, then played a "cupcake" in Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Those are the 3 games we have to go by for the Cowboys so far, and the only thing keeping them from getting jumped by Michigan, Penn State, and Tennessee is that I am a firm believer that they will run the table in the Big 12. They have a pretty tough (to say the least) schedule for at least the next 8 games with all of them being in my top 50, and it starts off with at #17 Baylor. As long as they win at Baylor & at Oklahoma, then go 12-1 with a Big 12 Championship, they should make the CFP this year.
8 Michigan Wolverines Michigan's first "test" of the season came vs Maryland this past week, and it was a very good game. I've been very critical of Michigan's OOC schedule being the weakest in the FBS (teams combined records are 2-14 & 0-14 vs FBS teams), so honestly not surprised that Michigan didn't look ready for Maryland. Hopefully this is a "knocking the rust off" game instead of something more because Penn State & Tennessee are looking good to jump them.
9 Penn State Nittany Lions My favorite team to bet on then have them break my heart basically every season. I'm always higher than most on Penn State, and they always seem to start 5-0 then finish 8-4 every season, but hopefully it's different this year. Assuming they get through Northwestern next Saturday (and Michigan wins both of its games the next two weeks) we are looking at a top-10 matchup between the Nittany Lions & the Wolverines. That Michigan game begins a 3-game gauntlet of: at #8 Michigan, vs #13 Minnesota, and vs #3 Ohio State. (Spoiler alert, I have them winning all 3 currently).
10 Tennessee Volunteers The "darling" of the NCAA so far (outside of Pittsburgh & Gainsville). Two top 20 wins (at the time) so far this season. They have a week off before they have to go to LSU then they have the Crimson Tide coming to town on 10/15. Get by LSU and they probably have College Game Day coming to Knoxville for the Alabama game.
11 Utah Utes Utah is among the hardest teams to rank so far this season. After being upset by Florida week 1 on the road, they beat a layup in Southern Utah 73-7, then beat San Diego State & Arizona State by a combined score of 69-20. October is pretty tough for them with: vs #24 Oregon State, at (currently 4-0) UCLA, vs #4 USC, then at (my #28) Washington State. Really looking forward to all of Utah's games in October.
12 NC State Wolfpack Rough start to the season with a 1-pt road win over East Carolina. Beat a layup in Charleston Southern 55-3, then defeated (my #30) Texas Tech showing solid defense holding that Red Raider offense to 14 pts. Knocked another layup out of the way in UConn, and we now have #12 NC State at #5 Clemson for the Primetime ABC game next week. I have a feeling this game is what will decide the Atlantic, but I'm trying not to get too ahead of myself with it only being week 5.
13 Minnesota Golden Gophers The. Golden. Gophers. Just like Michigan, they had a terribly weak OOC schedule of: New Mexico State, Western Illinois, and Colorado, but absolutely destroying Michigan State throws them way up my rankings. Minnesota has vs Purdue next week (on ESPN2 at 11a), then a bye week, at Illinois on 10/15, then a big game at #9 Penn State on 10/22. If I had to ask for anything right now for college football, it would be a top-10 matchup of Golden Gophers at Nittany Lions for College Game Day on 10/22.
14 Washington Huskies Opened the season with a 25-pt win vs Kent State (bigger margin than Georgia, just saying), another layup vs Portland State, then back-to-back solid wins in a 39-28 win vs Michigan State & 40-22 win vs Stanford. They play a fellow 4-0 PAC-12 team in UCLA this Friday (on ESPN) then play the Arizonas & California to finish off October. Honestly not excited about another Washington game until 11/4 when they host #24 Oregon State then follow it up with a road trip to #16 Oregon.
15 Ole Miss Rebels Making these rankings, I honestly kept forgetting about the Rebels. A very, very quiet 4-0 start to the season with wins over: Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, and Tulsa. Picks up rapidly this week as they host #7 Kentucky (on ESPN at 11a) in probably their last interesting game until 10/29 when it picks back up.
16 Oregon Ducks Had the worst start to a season that you could possibly have in losing 49-3 at #1 Georgia. Honestly, I don't see Oregon being able to make the CFP after that opening loss unless they win out and have 3 or less other 1-loss (or better) teams. Their October is relatively weak, but their last 3 games of the regular season should be very fun to watch: vs #14 Washington (11/12), vs #11 Utah (11/19), and at #24 Oregon State (11/26).
17 Baylor Bears Bounced back well to their loss at #20 BYU with a win on the road vs a solid Iowa State team. The Bears of Waco host #9 Oklahoma State this week (2:30p on FOX) in what might be the game of the week. I personally have them losing this game then winning out the rest of their schedule, but the Bears have solid games basically for the rest of the season.
18 Texas A&M Aggies Texas A&M should really rename themselves to "West Clemson". Their offense is absolutely dreadful to watch, but their defense is so elite that they put them in a position to win every single week. This week at Mississippi State is another one why A&M could get upset, but will probably win by less than a FG, then they have to go on the road at #2 Alabama in what I'm predicting is going to be Bama-Texas II.
19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Wake Forest's last two weeks include a 1-pt home win vs Liberty & a 2OT home loss vs #5 Clemson. I have them above the next 5 in the rankings (BYU, Arkansas, FSU, Kansas, Oregon State) because I believe those 5 schools offenses are "too passive" to keep up with Wake Forest in a neutral site game. That's the only thing keeping Wake Forest at #19 even though they did look very impressive vs #5 Clemson this past week.
20 BYU Cougars Besides Utah, this is probably the hardest team to rank so far this season. I really wanted to put them at #17 above Baylor, A&M, and Wake Forest but how they looked on the road at #16 Oregon has me questioning them. They have Utah State this Thursday (who isn't a cake walk), then has a "re-juiced" Notre Dame team on the road before playing #21 Arkansas at home. October is going to do a lot of sorting for my rankings personally, and I honestly can't wait to see where we are at November 1st.
21 Arkansas Razorbacks Solid wins over #26 Cincinnati and South Carolina. Very weird almost upset vs Missouri State where Arkansas looked like the worse team outside of the last few minutes, then that mud-crawl of a game at Texas A&M that ended in a 2-pt loss. They host #2 Alabama this week (2:30p on CBS) and if they hang with Bama, they probably will still be ranked going into next week depending on what the teams #26-33 in my rankings do.
22 Florida State Seminoles Absolutely no one saw them starting 4-0 this season, and with that I will give them what they earned and have them in my top 25. However, they host #19 Wake Forest this week (2:30p on ABC), then go on the road vs #12 NC State on 10/8, then finish their "ACC gauntlet" vs #5 Clemson on 10/15. I expect Florida State to go 0-3 in these games, but wild things have been happening in their games, so maybe they pull off the triple upset and go into November undefeated.
23 Kansas Jayhawks Honestly, their offense has looked very impressive. Layup 56-10 win vs Tennessee Tech opening weekend, when to West Virginia and dropped 55 pts on the Mountaineers, then went to Houston and dropped 48 pts on the Cougars. A slight hiccup in the 4th quarter vs Duke made the score closer than what the actual game was, but honestly a very nice 4-0 surprise start to the season for Kansas. The Big 12 looks good this year, and Kansas' October reflects that with games: vs (3-1) Iowa State, at (3-0) TCU, at (3-1) #25 Oklahoma, then at (3-1) #17 Baylor. Don't know what October will look like for Kansas, but I'm ready for it.
24 Oregon State Beavers I will not drop Oregon State out of my top 25 for playing #4 USC to a 3-pt loss. They will probably drop after their game at #11 Utah, but then they have at Stanford, vs Washington State, and vs Colorado to bounce back for their matchup at #14 Washington on 11/4. This is a very solid Oregon State team and as of now I expect them to finish 9-3 and in the top 25 after all is said and done.
25 Oklahoma Sooners You're probably thinking to yourself "how are the Sooners all the way down at #25" and I will just tell you guys this. They honestly aren't that good. They honestly weren't that good last season, then they lost key pieces at HC, QB, and WR before this season. Big 12 is pretty good throughout (like I said several times earlier) and Oklahoma's October looks like: at TCU, vs Texas, vs Kansas, and at Iowa State. I could honestly see them going 2-2 next month and dropping from my rankings, but what's good about College Football is that it always works itself out.

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