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Pablo49 Ballot for 2022 Week 5

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2022, 1:05 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Each game, the winning team "steals" a portion of their opponents points. This starts with a base 40% of opponent's points, plus up to 1% bonus based on margin of victory and home/away status. This 40% base decreases as the weeks go on (down to 17.5% by postseason), this is done to limit large swings as the season progresses. The season is ran both forwards and backwards (For example on week 10, the poll calculates weeks 1->10 and then weeks 10->1) and then averages those. This limits being destroyed by a week 1 loss, etc. Starting points are assigned as follows: P5: 500, G5: 400, FCS: 200. Pervious year season is ran using these starting points. Current year starts with these points, but up to an additional 500 starting points based on last year's rankings. (i.e. #1 2021 starts season with 1000 points (if P5), and downwards from there). The goal of this poll is to (mostly) treat P5 and G5 the same, and rank deserving teams. G5 is punished slightly in the pre-season calculations (20% less points), and even less in current season (~10% less than P5). This is ranking the most "deserving" teams and not an attempt to rank the "best" teams or to be predictive. For example, being ranked above another team does not imply you are the better team or should beat a lower team, just that you had better performance in your season. While this is not a particularly statistical method, as the season develops the top 10 especially usually shake out pretty decently. In the 3 years I have ran this poll (with some revisions), I have had the same top 4 as CFP twice (2020 being it's own problem), albeit slightly different seeds. So I think it works out. I'll try to comment on any teams that are outliers, or otherwise interesting, and explain why my poll loves/hates them. Since this is a computer poll, the first few weeks are rough and it will be a few more weeks before it really starts to settle. Especially 1 loss teams are completely wrecked this early in season, expect them to quickly claw their way back into poll in coming weeks. Currently there is about 350 points difference between #1 and #3, and about 500 between #3 and #25, so anything outside the very top is verrry fluid still.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs 1831
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 1648
3 Ohio State Buckeyes 1477
4 Clemson Tigers 1475 - Wake Forest now 27 in my poll. This computer has big swings earlier in season, but will average out with time. Undefeated teams are strongly favored, and a lot of 4-0 teams keeping them out.
5 Penn State Nittany Lions 1448
6 USC Trojans 1380
7 Michigan Wolverines 1372
8 Syracuse Orange 1362
9 Florida State Seminoles 1341
10 Kentucky Wildcats 1333
11 Tennessee Volunteers 1332
12 NC State Wolfpack 1322
13 Kansas Jayhawks 1322
14 Ole Miss Rebels 1222
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1190
16 Washington Huskies 1172
17 UCLA Bruins 1153
18 James Madison Dukes 1092
19 Minnesota Golden Gophers 1074
20 BYU Cougars 1061
21 Oregon Ducks 1052
22 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 1032
23 Arkansas Razorbacks 997
24 TCU Horned Frogs 974
25 Texas A&M Aggies 970

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