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crownebeach Ballot for 2022 Week 5

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 25, 2022, 11:43 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Did not do a full re-rank: took Week 4, updated for performances that dramatically changed my perception of a team and cut some overcorrections out of the mix. I am using advanced metrics less than in years past, but I consult FPI and to a lesser extent SP+ to make judgments. All feedback on rationale is welcome, especially if you think I got it wrong or overlooked some x-factor that contributed to a win or loss. Primary source for roster info is Athlon. More predictive than resume-based.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Beat what I *think* is a good Wisconsin team by significantly more than the spread. Continues to have national championship potential.
2 Georgia Bulldogs Defense showed frailty against a Kent State team that, while pretty good for a MAC team, is not going to be competing for a NY6 spot or anything. Body of work is comparable to Ohio State's overall, but they've shown both higher ceiling and lower floor.
3 Alabama Crimson Tide This is a better version of Vanderbilt than we've seen in recent years, but it's still Vanderbilt. +1 as Oklahoma drops.
4 Penn State Nittany Lions I was bullish on Penn State in the preseason and still am. Is 4th too high? Probably! But they have strong credentials across the board -- 10th SP+, 13th FPI, 4th SOR, 15th 247 Composite -- where most other teams contending for this spot are deficient in one or more of those areas. They are not particularly close to No. 3 Bama, but someone has to be 4, and Michigan, Oklahoma, and USC all made me very unhappy with them.
5 Tennessee Volunteers Tennessee has had, I think, a harder schedule than the metrics suggest. I rate both Pitt and Florida fairly high compared to others, so finding two better wins than that is a tall order. This defense is fine but not really SEC Championship material, so suffice it to say that there is a big drop-off from No. 2 to here.
6 Minnesota Golden Gophers I look at the 247 Composite and this doesn't add up to me either, but can you find anyone more deserving of this spot by resume or efficiency? Minnesota is 2nd in FPI efficiency on the season, behind only Alabama, and the Gophers have a very, very realistic path to the Big Ten championship game.
7 Michigan Wolverines Like USC, Michigan struggled against a pretty good team that I have on the fringes of the top 25; unlike USC, Michigan led the majority of the game and outgained their opponent decisively. Maryland was getting looks it liked in the passing game, and that should concern the Wolverines quite a bit.
8 USC Trojans USC fans want everyone to give their defense credit for being aggressive and ballhawking, but unlike most people, I actually watched the Stanford and Oregon State games -- of the eight turnovers across those two games, five were mistakes by the offense. No, USC's defense is not as bad as I thought it might be, but their offense isn't as good, either. This is still a great football team but their SOR does not tell the story of how much they've been playing with fire, and it has a good chance of catching up with them in the next three weeks.
9 Oklahoma Sooners I think Kansas State is pretty good -- top 30 -- but coming off a loss to Tulane is the *worst* time to lose to them. If K St had rushed all over them, I could accept that, but letting Adrian Martinez throw darts all evening is way worse, because I know how good he is and the answer is "not very."
10 Clemson Tigers I don't know what to think of that last game. On one hand, it's great that D.J. looked pretty good out there. On the other, I don't think Wake Forest is a top-25 team, and I especially don't think highly of their defense, so Clemson should have really handled them even more easily. No big change here -- jumped one team, were jumped by two.
11 Washington Huskies Common-opponent test with Minnesota; if I think Minnesota is fantastic for murdering MSU and a bad Colorado, then Washington must be at least great for slightly less-murdering MSU and a mediocre Stanford. UW has lots of upside and a potential playoff path but, like USC, their defense was spared some embarrassment by unforced Stanford turnovers.
12 NC State Wolfpack Not jumping a lot here because UConn is bad and because I had already priced Texas Tech being good into their rankings, which not everybody did. Yes, this is me humblebragging about being right re: Texas Tech.
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys -5 on a bye is really harsh, but I raised my grade of a couple of teams that they were previously ahead of, and I downgraded them slightly because Arizona State looks so much worse now.
14 Utah Utes I was really concerned ASU was going to be able to run the ball on Utah, and the Utes put my mind a little bit at ease on that -- but also, ASU is not as good as I thought they might be, so that's only slightly reassuring. Utah's offense is still looking mistake-prone.
15 Arkansas Razorbacks Played, as usual, a dead-even game that went the Aggies' way. This series is cursed. I still feel like Arkansas is the better football team, but as I've said a couple of times about the Razorbacks this season, they lack the killer instinct to finish some of these games and end up in a close game that didn't need to be. It bit them here.
16 Oregon Ducks Please for the love of all that is good, bench Bo Nix. You would never have been in danger of losing this game if not for his rock-brained pick six. He is dragging you down!!!
17 Pittsburgh Panthers FPI gives Pitt a 9.5% chance of repeating as ACC champ. The ACC is quite a bit stronger this year, but that still feels low -- of what I think are the top five ACC teams (Clemson, NC State, Pitt, FSU, and North Carolina), Pitt has the best balance between offense and defense.
18 Ole Miss Rebels Despite the final score, Ole Miss was in control of this game at halftime. The "drama" in this game really boiled down to two first-quarter drives where Tulsa flashed its moves, and Tulsa under Philip Montgomery has always shown those kinds of offensive flashes.
19 Florida State Seminoles Yeah, no, Florida State is just flat good. I'm really worried that Jordan Travis is going to get hurt again, but as long as he's healthy, these guys are an ACC championship threat, and I'm starting to think I have my expectations for them and NC State reversed.
20 Texas A&M Aggies I mean, we knew A&M had a good defense and a bad offense, and I think we still know that. I really like that this team exists because they're going to disappoint their own fans but they're also going to really fuck up at least one more contender's season in SEC play -- I just don't know who yet.
21 Cincinnati Bearcats Blew out a P5 team at home. Not necessarily a great one, but eh, momentum or something. Still the class of a down American conference.
22 Kentucky Wildcats Don't get excited about Will Levis being 18/26 with four touchdowns against NIU. Vanderbilt's true freshman QB was 18/28 with four touchdowns against NIU, and Vandy won by more despite being on the road. I think Ole Miss wins outright this week, and possibly by a lot.
23 Texas Tech Red Raiders A Texas Tech team without its starting quarterback beats a Texas team without its starting quarterback, so I'm treating it as a quality win because the teams are on even footing. Jumps Wazzu with the win, not much else going on with their ranking here.
24 Washington State Cougars Found a way to lose a winnable home game against a conference opponent. This one stings, but they had gotten some favorable bounces to have the lead in the first place, and originally I had expected them to lose by ~7 points, so I'm not punishing them overly harshly,
25 Florida Gators Bud Elliott thinks Anthony Richardson has been playing hurt, which would really explain a lot about the last few weeks. They've played a hard schedule and have what I think is a quality win.

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