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Pablo49 Ballot for 2023 Final

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Jan. 10, 2024, 9:42 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Hi, if you are reading this I assume it's because you saw Liberty at 11 and want to yell at my stupid system. :) Methodology: Each team starts with some amount of points (P5 1000, G5 900. It's more complicated than this and weighted based on previous year computer poll. For example Tulane, which was highest G5 at start had 605 ranking points). When a team wins, it steals some portion of ranking points from the losing team, with some small additional percent steal based on MoV and Home/Away. Points steal starts at 40% base steal + 1% MoV/Away at week 1, and base steal decreases by 1.5% by each week. Steal decays with time to limit huge late season swings (primarily conference championships etc). Season is calculated forward and back (weeks 1,2,3... and week 15,14,13...) and then averaged. This is an attempt to credit a team for a big win week 1 before the computer realized the team they beat was good. The computer isn't aware of "quality" losses at all. Liberty remained at 11, not thrilled about that. I want the computer's perception to be that G5/P5 parity isn't too far apart, but even so the strength of schedule really isn't there for Liberty. Similar for JMU. I try to not touch the computer calculations mid-season, otherwise it feels more like a hybrid poll to me. In the past I have used 2017 as a touchstone to rate how I feel about my computer, in that season I want UCF to sit in the top 4. Now I have a good season where I'd like to see Liberty hang out a bit lower. It's tough because I really want to reward undefeated seasons, but I do feel there's a limit when the SoS is very low. So I'll do some tweaking in the off season with these and some other past seasons. Otherwise pretty content with at least the higher end of this poll. Seeya next season, sickos :)

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines --
2 Washington Huskies --
3 Georgia Bulldogs +3
4 Florida State Seminoles -1
5 Texas Longhorns -1
6 Alabama Crimson Tide -1 -- it's been a pleasure freaking out over how my poll would rank your team over the years, Saban.
7 Ole Miss Rebels +6
8 Missouri Tigers +7
9 Oregon Ducks +5
10 Ohio State Buckeyes -3
11 Liberty Flames -3 -- poll inertia really saved them here
12 Arizona Wildcats +8
13 James Madison Dukes -3
14 Oklahoma Sooners -5
15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1
16 Penn State Nittany Lions -5
17 Louisville Cardinals -5
18 Clemson Tigers +3
19 Air Force Falcons NEW -- the JMU win looks good in the eyes of the computer
20 LSU Tigers NEW
21 Kansas State Wildcats NEW
22 Oklahoma State Cowboys +3
23 USC Trojans NEW
24 Tennessee Volunteers NEW
25 Duke Blue Devils NEW

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