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NotSoSuperNerd Ballot for 2023 Final

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Jan. 8, 2024, 11:49 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

Rank Team Reason
1 Michigan Wolverines 10.01 (15-0)
2 Washington Huskies 8.37 (14-1)
3 Georgia Bulldogs 6.92 (13-1)
4 Alabama Crimson Tide 6.85 (12-2)
5 Oregon Ducks 6.63 (12-2)
6 Florida State Seminoles 6.37 (13-1)
7 Ole Miss Rebels 6.21 (11-2)
8 Texas Longhorns 6.01 (12-2)
9 Missouri Tigers 5.82 (11-2)
10 LSU Tigers 5.74 (10-3)
11 Ohio State Buckeyes 5.73 (11-2)
12 Penn State Nittany Lions 5.28 (10-3)
13 Liberty Flames 5.17 (13-1)
14 Tennessee Volunteers 4.60 (9-4)
15 Arizona Wildcats 4.59 (10-3)
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4.58 (10-3)
17 Oklahoma Sooners 4.54 (10-3)
18 Kansas State Wildcats 4.43 (9-4)
19 Iowa Hawkeyes 4.39 (10-4)
20 Louisville Cardinals 4.35 (10-4)
21 USC Trojans 4.34 (8-5)
22 Oklahoma State Cowboys 4.29 (10-4)
23 Utah Utes 4.25 (8-5)
24 Clemson Tigers 4.25 (9-4)
25 Kansas Jayhawks 4.22 (9-4)

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