BeyondLiesTheWub Ballot for 2023 Week 9
Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 22, 2023, 10:53 p.m.
Overall Rationale: I have two predictive models - one that predicts how many points a team will score and one that predicts if they will win or lose. I simulate every FBS team against each other in each model and average the ranks based on who wins the most and who scores the most/allows the fewest points. Occasionally if there's a team that doesn't make sense based on the eye test I'll adjust or replace them (see notes for details). Other notes for this week: Duke, TCU dropped out. Clemson dropped out manually (ranked 18 according to model).
| Rank | Team | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
+5 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
+1 |
| 3 |
LSU Tigers
|
+10, this model clearly overreacts to blowouts |
| 4 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
-2 |
| 5 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-4 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
+1 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
-3 |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
+1 |
| 9 |
Washington Huskies
|
-4 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
no change |
| 11 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-5, manually moved up past Tennessee |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
no change |
| 13 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
+2 |
| 14 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-2 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
no change |
| 16 |
Air Force Falcons
|
+1 |
| 17 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
-3 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
+2 |
| 19 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
-2 |
| 20 |
Utah Utes
|
+5 |
| 21 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
+7 |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
-3 |
| 23 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-2 |
| 24 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
+2 |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
no change |
Teams Ranked:
| Rank | Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan Wolverines
|
0.13 |
| 2 |
Georgia Bulldogs
|
0.00 |
| 3 |
LSU Tigers
|
3.44 |
| 4 |
Oklahoma Sooners
|
0.00 |
| 5 |
Ohio State Buckeyes
|
-1.05 |
| 6 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
|
2.19 |
| 7 |
Penn State Nittany Lions
|
0.58 |
| 8 |
Texas Longhorns
|
0.00 |
| 9 |
Washington Huskies
|
-1.58 |
| 10 |
Alabama Crimson Tide
|
0.00 |
| 11 |
Florida State Seminoles
|
-3.22 |
| 12 |
Tennessee Volunteers
|
3.00 |
| 13 |
Kansas State Wildcats
|
4.43 |
| 14 |
Oregon Ducks
|
-0.86 |
| 15 |
Texas A&M Aggies
|
10.18 |
| 16 |
Air Force Falcons
|
0.00 |
| 17 |
North Carolina Tar Heels
|
0.00 |
| 18 |
Oregon State Beavers
|
-1.59 |
| 19 |
Fresno State Bulldogs
|
5.85 |
| 20 |
Utah Utes
|
-1.80 |
| 21 |
Wisconsin Badgers
|
4.08 |
| 22 |
USC Trojans
|
0.05 |
| 23 |
Missouri Tigers
|
-1.43 |
| 24 |
Ole Miss Rebels
|
-3.28 |
| 25 |
Arizona Wildcats
|
0.12 |
Omissions:
| Team | Unusualness |
|---|---|
Louisville Cardinals
|
1.35 |
James Madison Dukes
|
0.39 |
Duke Blue Devils
|
0.85 |
Tulane Green Wave
|
0.79 |
UCLA Bruins
|
0.40 |
Total Score: 52.63