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70stang Ballot for 2023 Week 9

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Oct. 23, 2023, 7:30 p.m.

Overall Rationale: THIS POLL IS A REPORT CARD. It is not intended to be predictive in any way whatsoever, and it does not take into account team talent, prior seasons, or any sort of pre-season poll. This poll was deliberately designed to be a counterpoint to poll inertia, pre-season rankings, and human voters who use "The Eye Test," which is usually an excuse to prop up a team like USC or Notre Dame or UGA because of what they have accomplished BEFORE this season. This poll is only concerned with one thing, and that is the results of what have happened on field so far this season, in as blind of a calculation as I can possibly make it. Wins are the most important thing, followed by quality of opponents played, which up until last week has been very roughly divided into P5, G5, and FCS. A win over Alabama and a win over Boston College counted exactly the same. This is my second week of considering "ranked" wins, as there is enough data for me to say that a "ranked" win actually means something. Crucially, a ranked win only exists against a team that was ranked in my poll the week prior, and everything is recalculated from scratch week-to-week. For example, last week UGA had a ranked win over Kentucky, but this week, they have zero ranked wins. Similarly, you could have zero ranked wins and the next week have two or three. This is all in keeping with my primary goal, of getting rid of as much poll inertia as possible. FCS wins previous to week 7 only counted negatively in direct comparison to other teams with equal records who had not played FCS competition. Now, in the top 10, FCS wins count directly against you. For clarity, an additional ranked win compared to other teams in your tier counts for more than an FCS win detracts, but in every other comparison (P5 unranked wins, G5 wins, etc) it counts more negatively than a single one of those wins does positively. This is a hybrid poll, but it is almost entirely about the computer. The human adjustment parameters I have allowed myself are extremely strict, and something I hope to not have to use. Primarily, human adjustment is important for consecutively ranked teams who have already played head to head.

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State is the only undefeated team in the nation with multiple ranked wins. Welcome to the number one spot, in Tier 1, the "Playoff Tier." This tier is composed of any team that is undefeated with at least one ranked win. Ohio State is the only team in this tier with an FCS opponent played so far, but they are also the only undefeated team with two ranked wins as per my poll last week. The FCS win counts against them, but not as much as having an additional ranked win boosts them over the competition in this tier. Ohio State has 5 P5 wins, including 2 Ranked wins over Notre Dame and Penn State, as well as 1 G5 win and 1 FCS win to be 7-0.
2 Florida State Seminoles Florida State takes the second spot in Tier 1, with 6 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Duke, and 1 G5 win to be 7-0. They beat out the Huskies and Sooners due to having played one more P5 game than Washington, and two more than Oklahoma.
3 Washington Huskies Washington sits third in Tier 1, with 5 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Oregon, as well as 2 G5 wins to be 7-0. They sit above Oklahoma here due to having played one more P5 game.
4 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma finishes out Tier 1, with 4 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Texas, as well as 3 G5 wins to be 7-0.
5 Michigan Wolverines Tier 2 is comprised of undefeated teams with multiple P5 wins, and no ranked wins. This is a very short tier. Michigan sits at the top of this tier, with 5 P5 wins and 3 G5 wins to be 8-0. They definitively sit higher than Georgia in this tier due to having played one more total game, no games against FCS competition, and 1 more P5 game.
6 Georgia Bulldogs UGA rounds out Tier 2 with 4 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins, and 1 FCS win to be 7-0.
7 Texas Longhorns Texas sits at the top of Tier 3, which is comprised of teams with 1 Loss, and at least 1 Ranked win. Texas has 4 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Alabama, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 6-1. They take precedence over the other teams in this tier with 1 Ranked win due to not having played any FCS opponents, which is something that is actively penalized in the top 10, and precedence over Alabama due to direct head-to-head.
8 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama takes second in Tier 3, with 5 P5 wins, including 2 Ranked wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee, as well as 2 G5 wins and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 7-1. They take precedence over the other teams in this tier due to having one more ranked win, but sit underneath Texas due to head-to-head results, despite having an additional Ranked win.
9 Utah Utes Utah takes third in Tier 3, with 5 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over USC, as well as 1 FCS win and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 6-1. They sit above the rest of the teams below them in this tier due to strength of schedule.
10 Louisville Cardinals Louisville is fourth in Tier 3, with 5 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Notre Dame, as well as 1 FCS win and 1 P5 unranked loss to be 6-1.
11 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State is fifth in Tier 3, with 4 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Iowa, as well as 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 6-1. They sit below Louisville due to having played one less P5 team.
12 Oregon State Beavers Oregon State rounds out Tier 3, with 3 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Utah, 2 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 unranked loss to be 6-1. They take the back seat in this tier due to having played less total P5 competition.
13 North Carolina Tar Heels UNC sits at the top of Tier 4, which is comprised of teams with 1 loss, multiple wins over P5 competition, and no ranked wins. UNC has 5 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, and 1 P5 unranked loss to be 6-1. They sit above the other teams in this tier due to having played one more P5 team, and having played no FCS opponents.
14 Missouri Tigers Mizzou is second in Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 unranked loss to be 7-1. They are above Ole Miss and Oregon due to having played an additional game.
15 Oregon Ducks Oregon is third in Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 6-1. They have the edge over Ole Miss due to strength of schedule.
16 Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss is fourth in Tier 4, with 4 P5 wins, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 ranked loss to be 6-1.
17 Fresno State Bulldogs Fresno State is last in Tier 4, with 2 P5 wins, 3 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 1 P5 unranked loss to be 6-1.
18 James Madison Dukes JMU tops Tier 5, which is undefeated teams with one or less P5 win, and no ranked wins, also known as the "G5 Contender Tier." JMU has 1 P5 win, 5 G5 wins, and 1 FCS win to be 7-0. They sit at the top of this tier due to having 1 P5 win.
19 Liberty Flames Liberty takes second in Tier 5, with 7 G5 wins to be 7-0.
20 Air Force Falcons Air Force is last in Tier 5, with 6 G5 wins and 1 FCS win to be 7-0. They take the back seat to Liberty due to having played an FCS team.
21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame sits at the top of Tier 6, which is comprised of 2 loss teams that have at least one ranked win. ND has 3 P5 wins including 2 Ranked wins over Duke and USC, 2 G5 wins, 1 FCS win, and 2 P5 ranked losses to be 6-2. They top this tier due to having one more ranked win.
22 LSU Tigers LSU takes second in Tier 6, with 4 P5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Mizzou, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 2 P5 ranked losses to be 6-2.
23 Florida Gators Florida takes third in Tier 6 with 3 P5 wins, including 1 Ranked win over Tennessee, 1 G5 win, 1 FCS win, and 2 P5 losses (one ranked, one unranked) to be 5-2.
24 Wyoming Cowboys Wyoming rounds out Tier 6 with 1 P5 win, 3 G5 wins including 1 Ranked win over Fresno State, 1 FCS win, as well as 1 P5 ranked loss (Texas) and 1 G5 ranked loss (Air Force) to be 5-2.
25 USC Trojans USC sits at the top of Tier 7, which is comprised of 2 loss teams with multiple P5 wins, but no ranked wins. USC has 4 P5 wins, 2 G5 wins, and 2 P5 ranked losses to be 6-2. They take the top spot in this tier due to having played one more P5 team than Wisconsin, and having lost to better competition than Iowa.

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