Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 22, 2023, 11 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Bradley-Terry rankings for the expected end-of-season win totals; Pr[A beats B] = 0.5+0.5*tanh(rA-rB). Prediction model is a hybrid Kalman filter, driven by the win margin of each game. NOTE: I am only including FBS teams in the rankings this season, since this methodology greatly rewards teams with good records in lower divisions. FCS teams will be ranked separately in my r/fcs ballot.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	4.80
2	Michigan Wolverines	4.60
3	Georgia Bulldogs	4.37
4	Florida State Seminoles	4.32
5	Washington Huskies	4.30
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	4.24
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	4.15
8	Utah Utes	4.13
9	Oregon State Beavers	4.06
10	Oregon Ducks	4.01
11	Oklahoma Sooners	3.90
12	Ole Miss Rebels	3.85
13	LSU Tigers	3.85
14	Texas Longhorns	3.76
15	Tennessee Volunteers	3.68
16	USC Trojans	3.66
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	3.64
18	Missouri Tigers	3.60
19	UCLA Bruins	3.55
20	James Madison Dukes	3.55
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	3.48
22	Louisville Cardinals	3.45
23	North Carolina Tar Heels	3.45
24	Florida Gators	3.40
25	Air Force Falcons	3.37

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.38
2	Michigan Wolverines	0.00
3	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
4	Florida State Seminoles	0.00
5	Washington Huskies	0.00
6	Penn State Nittany Lions	0.96
7	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.25
8	Utah Utes	0.80
9	Oregon State Beavers	0.29
10	Oregon Ducks	0.00
11	Oklahoma Sooners	-3.29
12	Ole Miss Rebels	0.00
13	LSU Tigers	0.45
14	Texas Longhorns	-2.30
15	Tennessee Volunteers	1.98
16	USC Trojans	2.47
17	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.00
18	Missouri Tigers	0.00
19	UCLA Bruins	0.89
20	James Madison Dukes	0.00
21	Iowa Hawkeyes	3.99
22	Louisville Cardinals	-0.19
23	North Carolina Tar Heels	-0.76
24	Florida Gators	0.76
25	Air Force Falcons	-1.14

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Duke Blue Devils	0.85
Tulane Green Wave	0.79

Total Score: 22.54