Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Oct. 10, 2022, 7:20 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Week 7 notes: Deservedness keeps teams like Baylor, FSU, LSU, Purdue, Texas, Texas A&M, Utah out when I would have them over a bunch of teams in this poll. I expect to see them back in the list if/when JMU, Syracuse, Coastal Carolina lose. General: 1st layer, computer portion: SP+, opponents’ SP+, opponents’ opponents’ SP+, opponents’ win %, opponents’ opponents’ win %. 2nd layer, human portion: home/field/away, key injuries, P5/G5 status, watched game factors (ex: offensive/defensive line domination, rush yards after contact, average point of first contact, defensive penetration on non-inside screens, missed tackles, quarterback throwing release speed, overall turnovers, average starting field position, etc). 3rd layer, human portion: wins/losses vs higher-/lower-/non-ranked teams, recency of those results. 4th layer, computer portion: Deservedness = team cannot be ranked over another team with 2+ fewer losses (ex: 3-2 Baylor cannot be ranked over 5-0 Coastal Carolina even if rankings have Baylor over Coastal Carolina and/or I think Baylor is better than Coastal Carolina).
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | A close game against a division rival with your starting quarterback out gets a pass. If quarterback is out longer and/or close games become more prevalent, this changes |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | If they keep this up and Alabama’s quarterback is out or they keep games close, Ohio State will probably bump up |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | Another non-close game could get them out of the doghouse (pun intended) |
4 | Clemson Tigers | They continue to win big against non-elite teams on the road and at home as well as pull off wins against good teams on the road and at home |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | Not penalizing for Indiana game - they haven’t looked super great against conference play yet. Could change if they beat Penn State big |
6 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | First computer layer has them much lower, but they get it done. TCU game could increase rankings if teams above them struggle |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | A loss to Alabama probably won’t dramatically drop them unless it is an absolute annihilation |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | First computer layer has them higher, but they struggled with Vanderbilt and other teams so far |
9 | Oregon Ducks | This ranking feels both weird and good, but oddly lines up with all layers |
10 | Penn State Nittany Lions | If their bye week was another close game against a team like Rutgers, they would’ve dropped |
11 | UCLA Bruins | Good win, but this was the 5th home game in 6 weeks for them - they’ll only have 3 home games in the last 6, including a roady at Oregon after their bye |
12 | USC Trojans | First computer layer has them lower, but I think their results have quietly been more impressive than Utah |
13 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | It’s really hard to score 40+ on an option team that focuses on eating up clock and limiting offensive possessions. That’s why (along with the convincing FSU road win) they’re this high despite first computer layer having them lower |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | First computer layer had them much lower, but they can prove themselves against surprise Syracuse |
15 | TCU Horned Frogs | First computer layer has them about here, their wins vs SMU/Oklahoma don’t look as great, but road wins vs a good Kansas team and still-decent SMU raise them |
16 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | First computer layer has them higher, but their past two wins have been against teams beaten up by the games from the week before. The upcoming Kentucky game is similar, but then again every team has to get over injuries and close losses |
17 | Kansas State Wildcats | First team to rise primarily because of Deservedness since wins don’t look as great as before |
18 | Cincinnati Bearcats | Close game against USF hurt them (even when factoring in conference play), but rise in rankings due to other teams on short end of Deservedness |
19 | Kansas Jayhawks | Wouldn’t have dropped a lot even with TCU loss, but rise due to Deservedness keeping other teams out |
20 | Illinois Fighting Illini | Don’t think they’d be ranked without Deservedness, but they have significantly improved throughout the season |
21 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | Only ranked due to Deservedness |
22 | North Carolina Tar Heels | Only ranked due to Deservedness |
23 | Syracuse Orange | Only ranked due to Deservedness |
24 | UCF Knights | Only ranked due to Deservedness |
25 | James Madison Dukes | Only ranked due to Deservedness |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.40 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
3 | Georgia Bulldogs | 0.00 |
4 | Clemson Tigers | 0.00 |
5 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.00 |
6 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.04 |
7 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.00 |
8 | Ole Miss Rebels | 0.00 |
9 | Oregon Ducks | 0.82 |
10 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.00 |
11 | UCLA Bruins | 0.00 |
12 | USC Trojans | -0.73 |
13 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 0.00 |
14 | NC State Wolfpack | 0.00 |
15 | TCU Horned Frogs | -0.42 |
16 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | 0.00 |
17 | Kansas State Wildcats | 0.00 |
18 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 1.17 |
19 | Kansas Jayhawks | 0.00 |
20 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 0.00 |
21 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 1.51 |
22 | North Carolina Tar Heels | 0.85 |
23 | Syracuse Orange | -0.85 |
24 | UCF Knights | 1.06 |
25 | James Madison Dukes | -0.05 |