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Pablo49 Ballot for 2022 Week 4

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 19, 2022, 9:42 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Each game, the winning team "steals" a portion of their opponents points. This starts with a base 40% of opponent's points, plus up to 1% bonus based on margin of victory and home/away status. This 40% base decreases as the weeks go on (down to 17.5% by postseason), this is done to limit large swings as the season progresses. The season is ran both forwards and backwards (For example on week 10, the poll calculates weeks 1->10 and then weeks 10->1) and then averages those. This limits being destroyed by a week 1 loss, etc. Starting points are assigned as follows: P5: 500, G5: 400, FCS: 200. Pervious year season is ran using these starting points. Current year starts with these points, but up to an additional 500 starting points based on last year's rankings. (i.e. #1 2021 starts season with 1000 points (if P5), and downwards from there). The goal of this poll is to (mostly) treat P5 and G5 the same, and rank deserving teams. G5 is punished slightly in the pre-season calculations (20% less points), and even less in current season (~10% less than P5). This is ranking the most "deserving" teams and not an attempt to rank the "best" teams or to be predictive. For example, being ranked above another team does not imply you are the better team or should beat a lower team, just that you had better performance in your season. While this is not a particularly statistical method, as the season develops the top 10 especially usually shake out pretty decently. In the 3 years I have ran this poll (with some revisions), I have had the same top 4 as CFP twice (2020 being it's own problem), albeit slightly different seeds. So I think it works out. I'll try to comment on any teams that are outliers, or otherwise interesting, and explain why my poll loves/hates them. Since this is a computer poll, the first few weeks are rough and it will be a few more weeks before it really starts to settle. Especcially 1 loss teams are completely wrecked this early in season, expect them to quickly claw their way back into poll in coming weeks. Currently there is about 300 points difference between #1 and #3, and about 300 between #3 and #25, so very fluid still.

Rank Team Reason
1 Georgia Bulldogs 1626 points
2 Alabama Crimson Tide 1493
3 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 1369
4 Arkansas Razorbacks 1315 points. Cincy was highly ranked in last year's computer poll, so Arkansas awarded for what the poll thinks is a big win. As the season goes, Cincy will look less valuable in retrospect and Arkansas will be a little bit less rewarded.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes 1297 points. Poll didn't love OSU last year so they are clawing their way back up as more games are played. They'll be in top couple within a week or two.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 Kentucky Wildcats
9 Indiana Hoosiers I do not understand why they are so high lol, big jump after beating Western KY. I think it is just because there are razor thin margins between teams outside the top ~5 or so. Should get passed by other teams soon, sorry Hoosiers.
10 NC State Wolfpack
11 Tennessee Volunteers
12 Iowa State Cyclones I hate Iowa State
13 USC Trojans
14 Oregon State Beavers
15 Michigan Wolverines Another team I expect to rise. Poll liked them in pre-season, they just haven't collected many points yet so they've been jumped.
16 Florida State Seminoles
17 Syracuse Orange
18 Clemson Tigers Poll hated their 2021 performance so they are starting from wayyy behind.
19 Washington Huskies
20 Oklahoma Sooners
21 North Carolina Tar Heels
22 Maryland Terrapins
23 Ole Miss Rebels
24 UCLA Bruins
25 Washington State Cougars 1037 points.

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