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crownebeach Ballot for 2020 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Sept. 1, 2020, 2:38 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Think of my rankings as an NCAA 14-style 99-point rating rather than a playoff ranking. A 94 overall team can beat a 99 overall, but the 99 is still "better." Rankings based on my expectations of a team's personnel and scheme, projected returning production courtesy of @ESPNBillC, and some review of FPI's preseason projections. I give a slight bump for teams with coaching continuity and/or offseason coordinator hires I perceive as improvements. Recruiting rankings are incorporated into SP+ and FPI, so I look at those metrics to judge a team but do not separately evaluate recruiting (in order to avoid double-counting).

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide Alabama's situation is a more balanced version of what Ohio State is facing -- the defense doesn't lose as much talent and experience, but the offense isn't as settled. On the other hand, um, Mac Jones is good! They're going to be fine, and unquestionably top four, but they're also going to lose a game somewhere.
2 Clemson Tigers Their defensive line will be the best in the country and they are secure at QB/RB, but their OL and DB rooms have a ton of turnover. Clemson will be top-four, but I wouldn't have guaranteed finishing ahead of the Big Ten champ.
3 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin lost its best offensive player in Jonathan Taylor and its best defensive player in Zack Baun, but nothing else important. There are at least two returning starters at every position group, so I fully expect Bucky to continue not having any weaknesses. 10-2 was likely and 11-1 was reasonable, so I am projecting a sneaky upset here in the top four.
4 Ohio State Buckeyes For my money, this was the best defense in the country last year, and it is almost certainly not going to be this year. Everyone knows Chase Young is gone, but breaking in three new defensive backs is actually going to be a taller order, especially with a new DC. If they weren't replacing Jeff Hafley, I would have them ahead of Clemson. Fortunately, the offense will continue annihilating people -- should cruise in the East, again.
5 Oregon Ducks Oregon has the best DBs room in the country and one of the best defensive lines. The defense (8th in '19, 18th in returning production) gives UO a national title game ceiling, but the Ducks probably don't have the offense to win it. They're on the right track, though -- they recruit at that blue-chip level.
6 Georgia Bulldogs Good riddance, James Coley. Jake Fromm wasn't amazing, but the coordinator was the problem with this offense, not the quarterback play. Georgia and Oregon are in similar situations -- driven by defense, not much offensive experience to bank on. UGA could win the SEC, but probably not the national title.
7 Auburn Tigers I don't usually rank teams this highly with so little returning production, but Auburn's biggest losses are on the defensive line, and as a general rule DL production is the easiest to replace. Their coordinators are also consistent producers, especially Kevin Steele. Should be top-ten in a reload year.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions I would like to see it from Penn State over a full season. The upside is there to make the playoff, but we haven't seen them look all that good on the offensive line, like, ever. If experience is enough to finally make that unit play well, then PSU is a top-four team everywhere else.
9 Florida Gators I accurately predicted that Florida would be really good last year, but I don't have as good a read this year. They could win the East, but they could also be overly dependent on the pass. Kyle Trask is fine, but you aren't winning the SEC if you can't run the ball.
10 USC Trojans You're going to @ me for hyping USC, but they're gonna be so good. So good. They can't afford to collapse this year, but this team has a vibe of "too big to fail" just on the basis of its raw talent. They're probably not going to beat Alabama, but for the first time in ten years, I feel like they *could*. This team is top-five in returning production and top-five in team talent, and the new DC is dramatically better than the outgoing one.
11 Oklahoma Sooners I don't think Oklahoma is very far behind the other CFP regulars, but this isn't going to be the year to prove it. Alex Grinch didn't do a great job with DBs at Washington State; where Oklahoma showed improvement, it was mostly on the front. They will compete for the Big 12, and as likely as not win it, but they'll control the line of scrimmage only to struggle downfield on both sides of the ball. That's not title-winning material, I think.
12 LSU Tigers This is absolutely the lowest I will ever put a defending champion, but this is nothing like the team that just won the championship. LSU is 127th in returning production; only Utah loses more in the Power 5. Joe Burrow is gone. Joe Brady is gone. Kristian Fulton and Grant Delpit are gone. CEH. Justin Jefferson. Household names. To be No. 12 with that much attrition borders on a compliment.
13 Texas Longhorns This is the Texas team you thought you were getting last year. I don't know why you thought you were getting it last year, on a team that had, like, four scholarship seniors. (Well, I do. Because y'all freaked out about the Sugar Bowl.) But they're actually going to be good this year. See their returning production (#21) and their team talent (top ten, again).
14 Oklahoma State Cowboys Chuba is back. The whole OL is back. Four of the DBs are back. Y'all, the whole team is back. I don't think there are any dumb losses lurking in the back pocket, but I've said that about Ok State before -- anyway, this is the last team with semi-serious national championship hopes imo.
15 UCF Knights UCF was 10-0 in games where Dillon Gabriel didn't throw an interception, and 0-3 in games where he did. If his play this year reflects all the experience gained a year ago, the Knights will run the table.
16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame lost a lot on defense. Like, a *lot*. The offense is in better shape, but they're going to look like a Wisconsin clone -- run the ball effectively, but struggle to adapt if they can't run over you. They're killing it in recruiting, though; they'll be back in the national title hunt by next year.
17 Texas A&M Aggies I don't know what to do with you. Kellen Mond is 110% not the guy, but the defense was competent after being disastrous for a few years in there, and it brings most everything back. The absolute best-case scenario puts TAMU third in the SEC, but that's still probably a top-eight season, and I think the Aggies would absolutely take that if you offered it.
18 Michigan Wolverines This is about coordinators and fit. Don Brown's coverages are largely press-man. They're really effective, but really simple, and that puts a ton of pressure on the corners, and losing Lavert Hill gives me doubts that they'll be up to the task this year. They'll win, but not win big. Offensively, I love what Josh Gattis does, but he's breaking in a new offensive line, and that means at least a month of coaching up before they're ready.
19 Washington Huskies This should be a pretty good team. The new quarterback won't be as talented as Jacob Eason, but it's not like Eason ever actually played that well anyway. The linebackers played badly last year, but the worst offenders lost their jobs midseason, and the secondary has mega upside. A successful year would be either 9-3 and beating Oregon, or losing to the Ducks but going 10-2.
20 Iowa Hawkeyes Moderate returning production. I have some issues with their quarterback situation being so uncertain, but in most years, Iowa wins with average to above-average quarterback play, so they just need "meh" to be a low-middle ranked team again.
21 TCU Horned Frogs The thing about TCU is that if you have competent, coachable players lining up on defense, you don't need them to have NFL physiques or instincts. This defense is going to be good, I promise, even with new defensive backs, and the offense should be better with a little more stability at quarterback.
22 Boise State Broncos Hurricane Hank is back, and so is most of the secondary. The offensive line is graduating, but it was hot garbage 98.8% of the time last season, so that may actually be an improvement -- this was a defensive team last year. Boise is the best-recruiting G5 team, so I have no qualms about ranking them out of the gates.
23 Northwestern Wildcats Surprise! A Power 5 team that ends up #1 in returning production is fairly rare, and Northwestern just brings back stupid amounts of talent. Nine defensive starters, four offensive linemen, and the incomparable Isaiah Bowser. Also, they finally dumped Mick McCall. Get excited.
24 Stanford Cardinal At one point last year, Stanford was down to six healthy scholarship offensive linemen. Not great. Losing Henry Hattis to a transfer hurts, but the o-line is much, *much* deeper this year thanks to recruiting, and a secondary that got picked on in 2019 is much more experienced. Definitely not going to have another losing season; Alamo Bowl ceiling.
25 Virginia Tech Hokies Here on the basis of returning production and nothing else. I actually think Virginia Tech was sneaky good last year, but the roster just isn't that talented by VPI standards, and it's going to take another year of finishing around the top 25 to convince me that Fuente is long-term in this job.

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