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stripes361 Ballot for 2019 Week 3

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 9, 2019, 11:05 a.m.

Overall Rationale: This is a forward-looking, predictive ballot. It is not a resume ranking. I start with an aggregate of the FPI and SP+ computer rankings and then adjust the teams based off of several "human" factors, including coaching, QB play, roster balance, eye test, and injuries. Because it is forward-looking, long-term injuries can significantly alter a team's ranking even before on-field performance has been affected.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Despite being #2 in both FPI and SP+, I'm holding Clemson here for now because I like Travis Etienne more than the Alabama backs. The margin of difference between the two teams is razor thin, however.Trevor Lawrence should be a Heisman candidate.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide I don't believe in holding the NCG blowout against Alabama (this is a ranking of this year's teams, not last year's teams, plus the same logic was used to keep Clemson below Alabama all of last year). So, while Alabama is #2 for now, this is a fluid situation and will be up for adjustment on a week-by-week basis.
3 Georgia Bulldogs Just as the Top 2 was a tough decision for me, #3 and #4 were also close to a toss-up. I'm gonna go with Georgia here at #3 for the moment based on better balance between their offense and defense. Both FPI and SP+ has the Dawgs close to Top 10 in both categories.
4 LSU Tigers LSU may have the top offense in the country so far, which makes them a danger to beat any team they face. The Tigers are certainly a leading contender to win the SEC, and their game with Alabama may very well decide a Playoff spot.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes I'm always skeptical of new coaches but, on the other hand, Ryan Day still has Urban Meyer's players to work with. Justin Fields has impressed so far and there are very few other question marks on this roster. The Buckeyes are a leading Playoff contender until further notice.
6 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma should have no problem beating the overmatched teams on their schedule with Jalen Hurts at QB. That was his specialty at Alabama. The real question will come when they face an opponent which can simultaneously spy Hurts and effectively defend the short passing game. Can Hurts really make top-level throws when called upon?
7 Wisconsin Badgers The only thing better than elite defense and an elite run game is elite QB play, which is the one ingredient that Wisconsin may still be looking for. If Jack Coan can perform in big games, Wisconsin can go toe to toe with anyone in the country.
8 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State was shaky in the first half against a rebuilding Buffalo but most of the teams competing for the #8 spot weren't any better in their games. And Penn State showed the type of second half bounceback typical of a Top 10 squad.
9 Oregon Ducks Oregon passes the eye test in the most literal way possible. Coaching and QB play is very important for me and Mario Cristobal and Justin Herbert are a made-for-television pair that just *look* the part. Combine that with a 71 point pasting of Nevada and an evenly played match with Auburn and there's reason for optimism in Eugene.
10 Auburn Tigers Ah yes, here in Season 3 of my voting we have the return of every Redditor's favorite feature: the "Ranking a team one spot below a team they beat head-to-head" special. In all honesty, it's not even their semi-struggles against Tulane which cost the Tigers position on my ballot. Willie Fritz has been doing a heck of a job with Tulane over the past several years and has their defense in the Top 40 nationally in both FPI and SP+. The bottom line is that I think Oregon at the current moment has a better roster and a more polished QB and happened to get upset. If Oregon can learn not to let off the gas and coast when they're outplaying opponents, they should be the better team going forward. But it's close and Bo Nix could make this Auburn squad really scary if he grows into the role quickly.
11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish I considered having Notre Dame above Auburn because I really am a big fan of Ian Book but that Auburn defense is just so scary. In reality, all the teams between #8 and #13 are very close and this portion of the ballot could see a lot of flux week-to-week.
12 Texas A&M Aggies The Aggies did not look great against Clemson but the Tigers are on a different level so I can't necessarily put too much stock into that. A September 21 showdown with Auburn should provide much needed clarity.
13 Florida Gators Florida is actually 8th in SP+ and 12th in FPI so I have them somewhat "underranked" here. I'm a huge fan of Dan Mullen but I just can't buy into Feleipe Franks or their performance against Miami (FL) just yet.
14 Mississippi State Bulldogs The Top 13 came together pretty quickly, and matches almost perfectly with both the FPI and SP+ Top 13 (in terms of inclusion only, not rank order, which varies widely between the two rankings). I'm starting to hit the "deeply flawed" portion of the rankings, where most teams are either heavily imbalanced between offense and defense or just aren't that great at anything in particular. With that said, I'm placing Miss State at the front of this pack of misfits. I spent my first two seasons as a balloter for the Reddit Poll stanning for Joe Moorehead's offense at Penn State and am a big fan of Tommy Stephens. That combined with the fact that FPI has Miss State in the Top 30 both offensively and defensively so far makes them more appealing than the pack of teams with which the Bulldogs are contending.
15 Michigan State Spartans Originally, I had Mich State at #16 but decided to bump them up one spot for the Mark Dantonio factor. Also, the "We are mind-bogglingly good at keeping other teams from scoring points" factor.
16 Texas Longhorns 16th may seem harsh for a talented team which did well last year and lost by only one touchdown to my #4 team but it's actually quite a bump up from where the computers have them. Both FPI and SP+ have the Longhorns ranked 24th on the back of a defensive efficiency outside the Top 80. Of course, that efficiency is largely influenced by playing LSU, which may turn out to be an outlier. On the other hand, Tom Herman's Houston teams sometimes struggled in this area, a weakness which was overshadowed by his explosive offenses. I'm not convinced Sam Ehlinger will be able to paint over the blemishes in the Big 12.
17 UCF Knights If McKenzie Milton were healthy, UCF would easily be a Top 10 team, possibly as high as 7 on my ballot. As is, I can't trust a team that has Brandon Wimbush in contention for anything better than the scout team. Yes, he did lead Notre Dame to a 10-3 record in 2017, but primarily on the back of an unstoppable running game. The Knights should roll through the AAC but I don't know how they would stack up against elite competition.
18 Michigan Wolverines FPI has Michigan a garish 86th in offensive efficiency so far. SP+ is more bullish on them at 54th, but the roster balance is still poor for a team which has consistently underperformed its expected results based on metrics under Jim Harbaugh. At the beginning of 2018 I was enthusiastic about Shea Patterson, but I'm just not seeing the necessary development from him.
19 Utah Utes Utah has two bye weeks sandwiched around a matchup with Idaho State, so we really won't have any useful information on Kyle Wittingham's squad until they play Washington State in late September. Still, they have a talented and well-balanced roster and a program which consistently produces results year-to-year.
20 Iowa Hawkeyes The weakness for Kirk Ferentz's teams always seem to come at the quarterback position, and that should not be a concern this season with Nathan Stanley leading the charge. Barring injury, the senior is set to finish second behind only Chuck Long on Iowa's lists for career passing yards and passing touchdowns.
21 Washington State Cougars We don't have much to go on this season after two cupcake matchups so far but Mike Leach's teams at Washington State have been sneaky good at times in the run game and on the defensive side of the ball. His Air Raid passing attack gets all the glory but the Cougars are generally solid and reliable all around and I will expect the same until further notice.
22 Maryland Terrapins Honestly, Maryland could be a lot higher than they are here, and if this were a purely retrospective poll they would be. However, I've never quite been as high on Syracuse as most, and I also remember Josh Jackson's struggles at Virginia Tech. I think he has a better roster fit at Maryland and the Terrapins have the potential to really take the Big Ten by storm this year. On the other hand, let's remember the last team which opened up dropping 70+ points on a cupcake before blowing out Syracuse and beating a ranked ACC opponent by the score of 63-20. That would be 2016 Louisville, who followed their red-hot start with struggles against Duke, Virginia, and Wake Forest before falling apart down the stretch, finishing 9-4 and ranked #21 in the AP Poll.
23 USC Trojans USC followed up a shaky performance against a rebuilding Fresno State with a dominant win over Stanford. Is their new starting QB really as good as he showed or was it a flash in the pan? The Trojans are on my watchlist for teams to push high up the ballot if they continue to perform.
24 Washington Huskies Cal is a good program and Washington should not get unduly punished for a 1 point loss. And, of course, they still have Chris Petersen coaching the team. But there is no doubt that Washington has disappointed so far, and plenty of doubt that Jacob Eason is the answer for them at quarterback.
25 Oklahoma State Cowboys The main FPI and SP+ suggestions for this spot were Missouri, which I think ascribes too much meaning to a blowout win over rebuilding WVU, and South Carolina, who I just can't get behind with Will Muschamp in charge. The Cowboys are a safe compromise selection who rank in the Top 30 of both FPI and SP+. So does Baylor, who have two blowout wins over cupcakes that may or may not mean anything. I'm going with the more established program under Mike Gundy for now. Honorable Mention: Baylor, NC State, Virginia, NDSU

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