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Sproded Ballot for 2018 Week 3

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 9, 2018, 10:31 p.m.

Overall Rationale: <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->The main rationale for this ranking is to determine the most DESERVING teams so far. This means that I might rank a team that I think is worse than another team higher if they have a better resumé so far. I also don't consider FCS teams or games against FCS teams since they have a different scholarship limit and don't have the same playoffs. To do this, I first create a rating for each team which is a consensus of the 25 most accurate computer polls in the past 5 years. This is my basis for how good a team is. I then use that rating to compare wins between 2 different teams against each other. Teams are also not punished for playing against better teams when compared to other teams. For example, if Team A is 11-1 and their loss was to the #1 team, while Team B is 12-0 and their best win was against the #10 team, Team A would not be punished for their loss, and if it was close they would be rewarded. I also don't care if Team C beats the #97 best team by 50 points while Team D beats the #40 best team by only 7. A win against a good team is better than a blow out win against a bad team. However, a blow out win against a good team is better than a close win against an equally good team. While my ranking may seem crazy at the beginning of the season, by the end when teams have played comparable opponents, it will make sense.

Rank Team Reason
1 Auburn Tigers <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->A win over a good Washington team is the best win any team has right now and thus earns them the best resume
2 Stanford Cardinal
3 LSU Tigers
4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
5 Georgia Bulldogs
6 Duke Blue Devils <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->This is likely a surprising choice for the top 10 but here's my reasoning: Army is looking like a pretty good team that could finish in the top 50. Northwestern has already shown that they can win against Purdue and for Duke to be able to go on the road and win is a big win and is shown. I likely would bet against them if they played Bama, but their win against Northwestern is better than Bama's against Louisville
7 Arizona State Sun Devils <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->While MSU might appear to be struggling early on, computer rankings still believe that they are a good team and thus ASU is rewarded for their win
8 Alabama Crimson Tide <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->See notes above on why they aren't higher but basically beating Louisville by 37 doesn't make up for Louisville being worse than MSU or Northwestern. If Bama can win against better teams, they will move up quickly
9 Oklahoma Sooners
10 Virginia Tech Hokies <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->VT, Miss. State and Clemson are likely interchangeable at this point so don't read much into it but FSU is a slighty better team than KSU and TAMU
11 Mississippi State Bulldogs
12 Clemson Tigers <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->While this was a good road win for Clemson, TAMU isn't a better team than FSU or KSU and it was a close game so that's while they're below Miss. State and VT.
13 Iowa Hawkeyes
14 Penn State Nittany Lions <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->App. State is a pretty good team so while it was a close game, going to OT isn't that bad for PSU. Add on a good win against Pitt and they've got a good resume
15 Houston Cougars
16 Kentucky Wildcats
17 Maryland Terrapins <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->Texas might not be back, but they still are a mediocre team and those wins can be valuable early in the season
18 USF Bulls
19 Northwestern Wildcats <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->NU is the first team ranked with a loss and that is because losing to Duke isn't that bad when most teams haven't played a team as good as Duke. That and their win on the road against Purdue allow them to be the first 1-loss team ranked
20 Boise State Broncos
21 Ohio State Buckeyes
22 Minnesota Golden Gophers
23 Michigan Wolverines <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->Michigan is the other team I have ranked with a loss because again not many teams have played a team as good as ND. However, they are lower than NU because W Mich. isn't as good of a team as Purdue
24 Utah Utes
25 West Virginia Mountaineers <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->I figured I'd use this to explain some notable teams I left out. Wisconsin was left out since neither team they beat is top 100 at the moment though I do expect them to rise after a quality win. Washington was left out because even though their loss came against Auburn, their win was against an FCS team. Other teams were likely also left out if they didn't beat any top 100 teams.

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