Back to poll results >>

Fmeson Ballot for 2018 Week 3

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Sept. 10, 2018, 4:05 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Ok, I said last week I wouldn't change my ranking algorithm halfway into the season, but then I made some major improvements and couldn't resist lol. It's too much to say exactly what I did here, but I made some improvements that better deal with a few main issues:1. Better handling of cupcake wins and losses. Previously I had to throw out some games vs FCS teams as a datapoint as my algorithm couldn't handle the lack of data on them. I added in way more data, and this also allowed me to better quantify how to handle large mismatches resulting in a more accurate ranking through and through.2. New preseason ranking system that works without recruiting, meaning G5 teams don't get absolutely destroyed preseason by their terrible recruiting rankings. 3. Quantification of errors on each measurement means for a more accurate overall picture of the program. e.g. I better know how to weight preseason rankings vs on the field results. All this and some new fancy math seems to have improved a lot of the issues I had with early rankings last week. I am pretty dang happy with the results, we see that G5 teams that deserve to be ranked are ranked unlike last week and top teams that deserve to be top are still at the top. Still there are a few odd ones: 1. I do think Standford is good, but not better than Clemson good. 2. Washington is maybe a bit low3. Oklahoma State is maybe a bit high. 4. ND at 31 seems way too reactionary. Other than that I am pretty happy with how it turned out. I should mention that the algorithm says all these teams have large error bars on their rankings since the season is still young. e.g. MSST could be ranked as high as #4 or as low as #29 and not have it's intrinsic score (Elo like) change more than random error.  <!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->

Back to poll results >>