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WhiteBaseCoat Ballot for 2017 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 16, 2017, 11:58 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Fair warning, this is gonna be funky. It's a preseason poll, why not make it interesting? So my method for coming up with this poll was to basically look at each team's win-loss record from 2016, then work from there using 247 recruiting rankings (specifically, analyzing the 247 2016 talent composite + the 2017 composite recruiting rankings, since the 2017 talent composite hasn't been released yet), returning starters (with a specific focus on QB's), Bill Connelly's 2017 returning production calculations, and the previous records of HC's, as well as how long a coach has been at their school. I've then added a dose of hot takes/gut feelings, partially because like I said, it's the preseason poll so why not, and partially because I'm still getting a handle on how to compile my own rankings without doing anything majorly stupid. Basically, though, my overall philosophy was to distance myself, as much as I could, from media and fan narratives, trying to base as much as possible on the facts (as far as I can discern them) and not being too concerned with whether or not they fall in line with everybody else's thoughts.

Rank Team Reason
1 Florida State Seminoles Teams 1-4 are basically "loaded and experienced teams with coaches I trust." I don't think this pick, at least, should be super controversial; you've got Jimbo Fisher coaching a very talented team with a very experienced defense and a fairly experienced offense that returns its (good) QB.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes Again, no major surprises here; this team isn't quite as experienced as FSU, but otherwise you can more or less plug in Urban Meyer to the description I gave them.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions Here's a twist (both because I'm really high on them and because I still haven't ranked Alabama yet). Penn State may not fully match up from a talent standpoint to the other teams I've ranked 1-5, but they're extremely experienced, especially on their already-awesome offense. James Franklin is a good coach with a good staff, and I think if anybody is poised to make a plausible run at the title without being completely loaded with blue-chip talent, it's Penn State (though note I'm still not projecting that they'll win it all).
4 Alabama Crimson Tide Why is Alabama ranked #4? Well, they're not as experienced as the teams above them on this list. You say that they have so much talent they don't need to worry about experience? Well nobody asked you, this is my preseason poll and I will hold on to my dream that Kiffin stole Saban's mojo and Alabama will finally lose more than one game in the regular season. At least until they inevitably destroy FSU in Week 1.
5 USC Trojans I've got USC down at 5 because I'm just not sure if I trust Clay Helton yet. Their offense isn't as experienced as it could be, as well, even if Sam Darnold is awesome.
6 Oklahoma Sooners In my mind, Oklahoma's in a similar boat to USC. They're a little more experienced even if they don't match up talent wise, it's just that Lincoln Riley is an unknown commodity. He'll more than likely be good, but you never want to put too much trust in a year 1 coach. Or at least, I don't.
7 Washington Huskies Washington's biggest ding to me - and they're probably the first team on this list where I have a serious, major concern - is that they lose a lot on defense, production-wise. I trust Chris Petersen quite a bit, enough to think that they'll still be top 10 and may have an outside shot at another playoff appearance, but I'm wary about their ability to replace their losses considering their recruiting hasn't been spectacular (again, I do trust Petersen to develop talent, but they've got some big shoes to fill).
8 Louisville Cardinals I know, I know, I know, this seems super ridiculously high. I just think people are writing Louisville off way too quickly. I see three factors that work really well in their favor: Lamar Jackson, obviously, but also a really experienced defense, and Bobby Petrino himself. You can say a lot about the man, but he has a relatively consistent track record of building upon success, and when I look at those other two factors I have a feeling he's about to put together a really strong season that people aren't expecting.
9 Stanford Cardinal I'm also way higher on these guys than most people, but I think everybody is sleeping on Stanford this year because of their unspectacular (though by no means bad) season last year. I had a tough time deciding between Stanford and Wisconsin; Stanford should be a decent amount more talented and experienced, but Wisconsin does have an established quarterback. I went with Stanford for the overall quality of the team, but both should be very solid.
10 Wisconsin Badgers (see above)
11 Clemson Tigers And here we have returning national champ Clemson, knocked out of the top 10 because I sprung Louisville and Stanford above them like a madman. This is gonna be controversial too, but they lose a lot more than just Deshaun Watson on offense. They're easily the most inexperienced team on the list thus far, and while Dabo has done an amazing job running this program, they're not at Bama levels of reloading yet.
12 Michigan Wolverines Same deal as Clemson; they're more talented but also way more inexperienced. Jim Harbaugh's an awesome coach with an established record of success, but he's facing a very uphill battle this year.
13 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State's offense should be incredible; I just don't trust that defense very much at all, and there's not nearly as much talent on their side as teams #1-12 (Louisville and Wisconsin are the only ones that come close - I know, I know, you're gonna say again that I shouldn't have put Louisville so high, just work with me here). Obviously Gundy knows what he's doing when it comes to getting the most out of players, but he's not known for being a defensive mastermind, and I have a hard time seeing them make it through the regular season and past the Big 12 title game without at least a few losses.
14 LSU Tigers I've got a weird run of SEC teams stuck in the middle, because they're all teams that could be really good or really disappointing. First up is LSU. I'm pretty worried about Ed Orgeron, and while they have a couple of great coordinators, they lost a lot on defense. They're extremely talented, so they beat out the next few SEC teams - I think they have a pretty high floor, if nothing else, and they do technically have the most experienced QB of the four - I'm just not ready to jump on the Coach O hype train yet.
15 Auburn Tigers I'm basically punting on Auburn by sticking them in the middle of the rankings. They're really talented, they've got a hyped-up transfer QB, they have solid experience on both sides of the ball, and they've got a relatively consistent HC in Gus Malzahn (at least, the wheels haven't completely fallen off for him yet). But many of these are things you could say about previous Malzahn teams. They could be awesome, but if neither Stidham nor White can stay healthy, things could also fall apart quickly.
16 Florida Gators Same deal with Florida. Their defense has less experience than Auburn and less talent than Auburn or LSU, but it should still be very good, while their offense returns a bunch... except for any established QB. And it's starting to seem like they could also lose Callaway at some point. McElwain had a very good run at CSU and has done quite well in stopping post-Muschamp Florida from collapsing, so it's hard not to expect him to improve upon last year, but his team has quite a few questions to answer.
17 Georgia Bulldogs Same deal with Georgia. Regardless of how hyped I might be as a Georgia fan, they have some really major questions - Kirby Smart needs to show that he actually learned some things from Nick Saban, and the entire offense needs to improve drastically. That being said... pretty much every offensive position has a lot of talent or a lot of experience, and in many places they have both. Kirby is working with one of the best roster situations in the country. They return basically everybody significant and they're extraordinarily talented. And coaches tend to see a massive bump in year 2, including the last couple of guys at Georgia. But many would argue that if Kirby and co. were ever going to be any good, they would've had a much better season last year, and maybe they're right. In the hands of a more experienced coach, this team would be in the national title conversation... but until Kirby Smart proves that he can win big and his offense pulls itself together, it's hard to have anywhere near that much faith.
18 TCU Horned Frogs Teams 18-20 are basically "teams whose coaches I trust a lot," and starts off a run of teams that many people will probably take issue with. Gary Patterson had some struggles last year, but I think he's a fantastic coach, and his team has a massive amount of experience. Honestly, the only reason I haven't put them even higher is because of their poor record last year - I think that all signs point to them having a really solid bounce back.
19 Washington State Cougars Washington State is on this list because Mike Leach knows what he's doing, his team is experienced, and he returns Luke Falk; there's every reason to think he'll be successful again this year. I'm just not sure how much of a leap he can make with a relatively untalented roster.
20 Kansas State Wildcats There's not a ton of separation between the Cougars and Wildcats for me; Snyder and Leach are both great coaches, and basically it comes down to the fact that Kansas State has a little less talent, and I like Ertz a little bit less than Falk (not even an opinion I hold very strongly to be honest). Both should be good, high-floor teams.
21 Miami Hurricanes Miami and VT are "talented teams that lose a lot but have good second-year coaches." I kept waffling back and forth on which to put above the other; I think Fuente has higher upside, but Richt has more experience. Both teams will be inexperienced on offense. Fuente's defense should be pretty experienced, but Miami has a good bit more talent. I decided to go with the talent and the more experienced coach.
22 Virginia Tech Hokies (see above)
23 Texas Longhorns Texas and Oregon are my "talented teams with a ton of experience and great first-year coaches." They're down low because A. they had pretty bad records last year and B. again, these are first year coaches, but I'd be surprised if at least one doesn't make a nice leap forward (though I honestly think both will, that's why I ranked them). I went with Texas over Oregon because they have more talent and had a better record (so their returning experience should mean more).
24 Oregon Ducks (see above)As a side note and an explanation of some of this poll's seeming weirdness, I realize I still don't have WVU/Tennessee/Utah/a slew of others who some would think are more deserving than teams like Oregon/TCU/Wazzu; when it comes down to it, I felt those other teams don't return enough of a combination of talent and production to be on the board. I have nothing against coaches like Holgersen and Whittingham and I honestly thing Butch is a better coach than the memes would have you believe, but their teams will be inexperienced and, to varying levels, won't have much talent going for them (not so much with Butch, but with many of the other bubble teams). I trust the likes of Patterson and Leach with an experienced team more, and while Taggart is certainly not on their level, I do think he's very good and has the pieces to quickly bring Oregon back into form. In general, this is also just sort of a fun pick to spice up a preseason poll. There is no need to be upset.
25 Colorado State Rams I'm gonna be honest, Mike Bobo's Colorado State is my completely emotional dark horse pick for the NY6 G5 bowl. USF is the popular choice for many good reasons, I've just got a good feeling about CSU this year and wanted to sneak them in.

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