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stripes361 Ballot for 2017 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 20, 2017, 9:38 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Emphasis on proven returning talent who contributed to last season's results. Strong emphasis on proven QB play. Some teams who are changing quarterbacks may be ranked somewhat under their potential based on uncertainty at the position (e.g. Clemson). A strong showing from their new signal-caller could provide an opportunity to jump upwards in the polls as the first few weeks unfold. Rankings cross-checked against pre-season FPI, which led to several slight adjustments. As the season unfolds, especially in the second half when the computers start to obtain significant levels of data, aggregate computer rankings will start to have more influence on mine. 

Rank Team Reason
1 Ohio State Buckeyes The bowl game against Clemson was ample cause for concern. Without Kevin Wilson's arrival in Columbus, they may not have ranked #1 in my pre-season poll. However, I expect the offense to improve over their 25th-ranked finish in FPI last year. They are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. And they have elite performers at the two most vital positions in college football: head coach and quarterback.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide I have only one concern with Alabama's championship-caliber roster: Jalen Hurt's ability to put up big passing numbers against elite defenses. If Hurts shows development in this area of his game, the Crimson Tide may be the best team in football this season.
3 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma flew under the radar last year due to early-season losses against Ohio State and a Houston team that was very good when healthy. They were fairly dominant throughout Big 12 play and against Auburn at the Sugar Bowl. QB Baker Mayfield has the potential to pull the Heisman/national-title-game-appearance double that Sooner great Sam Bradford did nine years ago. Ultimately, Oklahoma's defense will determine how far they go. The sky is the limit for this group.
4 Florida State Seminoles Jimbo + Nasty D + Deondre Francois = Many happy 'Noles' fans this upcoming fall! FSU may have been the most under-the-radar elite team in the country this season if not for their Week 1 matchup with 'Bama and the ESPN Hype Machine.
5 Washington Huskies Chris Petersen may be the third best coach in college football behind Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. The Huskies, Petersen's trademark defense, and a poised, physical offense dominated the Pac-12 last year. USC and The Darnold make headlines but all Washington does is make plays. Huskies will repeat as PAC champs playing in time slots that give a whole new meaning to the term "sleeper team".
6 Clemson Tigers Clemson may be underranked at #6 but their new QB will have to prove it. The Tigers have as much talent as anyone in the country but the five teams in front of them in my rankings all have bona fide stars taking the snaps on offense. Either Kelly Bryant or one of their young prospects will have to excel for Clemson to repeat as national champs...especially with a daunting trip to Louisville looming on September 16.
7 Penn State Nittany Lions Saquon Barkley was built to play in the Big 10. This power back should garner Heisman interest in 2017 as a strong defense gives Penn State the field position it needs to score tons of rushing touchdowns. How the Nittany Lions handle a brutal October, and how James Franklin handles his newfound job security, will be the difference between a Tier 1 Bowl and a CFP spot.
8 Auburn Tigers Skeptical of this pick? You're in great company! So am I. I don't always rank teams with McLennan transfer QBs in my top 10, but when I do, it's because I love Gus Malzahn. The spread guru should feast on SEC defenses with an Art Briles protege calling the signals, while FPI has bullishly placed the Tigers inside their Top 5. Can Kevin Steele's defense live up to the heady hype?
9 Louisville Cardinals A beat up Louisville offense struggled down the stretch in 2016. However, the rejuvenated Cardinals will excel on both sides of the ball in 2017 and turn the ACC Atlantic division into a true three-team race. Louisville nearly went undefeated in conference play last year and get Clemson at home in September. The ACC may have a new sheriff this time next month.
10 USC Trojans USC was one of the hottest teams in football after The Darnold took over. However, their schedule may have had something to do with that. The Trojans did post a truly impressive win over Washington and an explosive offense covered up some major defensive deficiencies in their Rose Bowl victory against Penn State. A tough September should give us some answers and the Trojans are capable of coasting through the rest of the season if they survive the first month unscathed.
11 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin should be the same team it always is: smashmouth run game, elite defense, and an inconsistent passing game. The Badgers overpowered most teams on the ground last year but struggled when they encountered equally strong defenses. Alex Hornibrook will need to take a step or two forward this season if Wisconsin hopes to challenge for a CFP spot.
12 Georgia Bulldogs Kirby Smart is building a defensive juggernaut in Athens. He has weapons aplenty in the offensive backfield. Can the wide receivers play well enough to turn this offense into a consistent winner? The Bulldogs are talented but need to show that they'll be better than their 69th-ranked FPI offense from last season before they can rise any higher in my rankings.
13 Stanford Cardinal Stanford is a legitimate threat to win the Pac-12 this season. They get Washington at home and have a fairly dreamy schedule after their September 9th tilt with USC. Win those two games and they even have a shot at the CFP. The biggest problem is a common theme in the 11-15 portion of my ranking: does their offense have enough firepower to scratch out a win when their typically stout defense has an off day?
14 Michigan Wolverines The Wolverines have a brutal schedule, starting the season with an OOC matchup against Florida, traveling to defending B1G champ Penn State, and ending the season with consecutive games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Their defense will rough up everyone in-between, but can Wilton Speight be a big-game player this year? Perhaps the Richmond native can channel fellow Collegiate School alum Russell Wilson.
15 LSU Tigers Under Les Miles, LSU were always loaded with talent but often seemed to underperform in the passing game despite an embarrassment of riches at the receiver position. Will Ed Orgeron be a welcome change in Baton Rouge or the beginning of a rebuilding period? They're too good to fail on paper but will need to prove it on the field before they jump any of the established winners ranked ahead of them.
16 Florida Gators Jim McElwain is a true star in the coaching profession. The man who brought us Mark Ingram, AJ McCarron, Trent Richardson, and Greg McElroy is building a real contender in Gainesville. If this were the 2018 rankings, I would likely have Florida much higher. But it's not.
17 TCU Horned Frogs Gary Patterson's squad will be competitive as always but lacks the top-level playmakers on both sides of the ball to be elite. This is not a playoff team but it could win a surprise conference title if it discharges itself honorably in its Veterans' Day matchup with Oklahoma.
18 Tennessee Volunteers Butch Jones is a 9-4 type of coach and I wouldn't expect 2017 to be any different. He'll probably steal one from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, or LSU but his inconsistent Volunteers won't win much more than a Tier 2 Bowl this season.
19 Miami Hurricanes Mark Richt was a great coach at Georgia and will restore some pride to Miami's fallen football program. Year 2 of his tenure might be one year too early to make any major noise but a Coastal division title is in reach, as long as they can manage at least a split in back-to-back late-season games against UNC and VPI.
20 Washington State Cougars X marks the endzone and Mike Leach gave Luke Falk the map. The Cougars' Arrrr Raid offense will score in bunches as they always do and an underrated defense returns nine starters. Washington State also get to play USC, Colorado, and Stanford at home this season. Their year likely hinges on a pivotal Week 1 matchup against Montana State.
21 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State get both Oklahoma and TCU at home but their defensive deficiencies will likely keep them from winning a conference title. Mike Gundy's crew will always be able to put up points but they also need to prevent them like they did against WVU and Colorado last season. I'm not convinced the late surge will carry over.
22 Virginia Tech Hokies VPI loses a ton of talent from an offense that only ranked 49th nationally in FPI last season. That normally doesn't bode well for a Top 25 finish. However, Bud Foster's defense will always excel in Blacksburg and Justin Fuente has a young quarterback named Josh Jackson who is perfect for his dynamic offense. The Hokies may stumble against WVU, ECU, and Clemson in September but look for them to improve as the season progresses.
23 James Madison Dukes Over the past few years, the top of the FCS has consistently competed with FBS opponents, even mid-level P5 opponents. Iowa, Washington State, Kansas State, and Virginia Tech are a few of the biggest trophies collected since 2010. Meet the new kings of FCS. The 2016 NCAA Division 1 National Football Champion ended North Dakota State's reign of terror with a physical defense, a fearless QB in Bryan Schor, and a hellacious rushing attack. Khalid Abdullah may be gone but JMU has reloaded by attracting Georgia Tech's 2015 leading rusher, Marcus Marshall, to Harrisonburg. This disciplined, tenacious team is one which few FBS teams would care to encounter.
24 Texas Longhorns Texas was loaded with talent under Charlie Strong but could never put it together. The big question in Austin is whether new darling Tom Herman will crash and burn like his heralded predecessor. This year may be a rough transition for the former Houston coach.
25 North Carolina Tar Heels LSU transfer Brandon Harris actually put up some decent numbers for the Tigers despite playing in an unfriendly environment for QBs. Larry Fedora's system looks to be a better situation for Harris and the Tar Heels hope he can run the offense as efficiently as Mitch Trubisky did. As always under Fedora, they will play offense well enough to hang around the Top 25 but will be too inconsistent on defense to do much more than that.

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