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mickeyquicknumbers Ballot for 2017 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 18, 2017, 2:39 p.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide
7
Straight #1 recruiting classes + Nick Saban = who cares how many players they
lose, assistant coaches they lose, or whether or not they're actually going
to have a QB controversy next year. They were the presumptive #1 last, and
the year before, and they will be this year as well.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes
2016
Ohio State survived one of the greatest exodus' of talent in recent college
football history to go 11-1 in the regular season and make the playoffs with
16 new starters. The defense, which was one of the nations best last year,
will be one of the nation's best this year. The offense - which was amazing
for a while and then sputtered dramatically by season's end - should be
better with an updated coaching staff. 
3 Florida State Seminoles
Oh
fun! A preseason #1 v. a preseason #3. The Seminoles should be challenging
one or two other teams (Ohio State, Alabama) for the best defense in the
nation this year, and one of the best defensive lines as well. They return 9
starters and get back the nation's best safety in Derwin James. The offense
has a few more question marks around running back and both tackles, but
they're questions that will likely have very talented answers. Truth be told
Francois needs to take a real step forward for them to earn this spot, but
suggesting a freshman QB might take a step forward is not that unrealistic.
4 Washington Huskies
Washington
seems to be getting overlooked a lot for preseason hype this year. I'm not
sure why. Jake Browning was not far behind Sam Darnold last year as a true
sophomore, Miles Gaskin looked every bit as good as Ronald Jones, and the
Huskies return two very good receivers in Pettis/McClatcher and have fewer
questions across their offensive line. Pair that with likely the best
defensive line in the Pac12 (sorry Utah) and one of the best linebackers in
the nation in Azeem Victor, and you've got yourself a bona fide contender.
The secondary is a question after some pesky attrition to the NFL & the
graduation of Kevin King, but overall this team looks ready to run it back
for another go at the playoffs.
5 Stanford Cardinal
Oh yes
Stanford indeed - Christian McCaffrey is gone, but truth be told there was
not much dropoff between him and Bryce Love when the two switched in and out.
QB play was a major problem for them last year, and it might be again this
year, but I'm going to go out on a limb in picking them to bounce back strong
offensively anyways. Stanford has a ridiculous amount of talent at QB and I
expect someone to emerge from the pile. The offensive line, at times a
weakness last year, should once again become a strength for the team - with
four returners and the two best linemen recruits in the nation coming in as
freshman. I expect 2017 to look much closer to 2015 than 2016.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn
State yay! This is could very well be the best offense in the country in
2017, competing for that title with the team ranked directly behind them.
Saquon Barkley, Mr. McSorley, and a deep slew of pass catchers are going to
keep this offense as electric as it finished 2016, and with a general step
forward at every position group on defense (except maybe edge rushers) I
think this is the obvious team to challenge Ohio State in 2017.
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma fits neatly behind Penn State on the "best offenses in the nation that have maybe some big questions on defense" - I put them slightly behind Penn State because they're in a conference where elite offenses can be neutered by other elite offenses a little easier. but still, the best QB/WR tandem in CFB paired with a potential bigtime breakout RB Justice Hill, and *enough* collective experience back that you want to believe this defense will improve marginally - altogether is pretty sweet. 
8 Auburn Tigers
Sure.
Count me in as being cautiously aboard the Auburn hype train. After
consecutive years of dramatically underperforming (14/15) and one year of
just barely performing (2016) I think Auburn finally has the formula for a
good season. They landed the most important recruit in the nation last year:
a QB who has proven he can thrive in a college offense, and one with (just
barely) enough experience to the system Malzahn made his bones with, I think
it's more likely than not Pettway/Stidham make Auburns offense electric-ish.
The defense will miss Carl Lawson, and I'm still skeptical about the
long-term viability of Kevin Steele, but 8th feels right for now. 
9 USC Trojans
Darnold
and Ronald (almost an anagram) are the obvious "reasons to love USC in
2017". RJII is poised for an all-PAC12 type season as a rusher, and Sam
Darnold is earning #1 pick hype after his freshman year; count me in on the
hype for both of these players. The rest of the team has a collective one too
many questions that I think are being overlooked. Darnold's sophomore year is
going to have to rely on a new receiving group after losing his top-2
receivers, including the fantastic Juju-Smith-Schuster; he's also going to
have to do it after losing two 1st team and one 2nd team all-PAC12 linemen -
unquestionably the 3 best linemen on the team last year. That's someonewhat
alarming. I think for those reasons the Trojan offense will not quite be the
powerhouse that some expect it to be, so here they sit.
10 Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma
has a LOT going for them. Yes they replace basically their entire skill
position depth chart, and I think that will set them back a hair, but
returning one of the best OL's in the nation and a heisman caliber QB is
going to be. The defense may not having many budding all-american types, but
they'll be the most experienced they've been in a long while. Altogether I
would have considered putting them 5th, above Okie St., but a coaching change
scares me, especially for a coach that is this young. I know that everythin
he's touched has turned to gold in his relatively short coaching career - but
managing a major program is difficult to do, so I'm hedging by moving
oklahoma down to here. 
11 Louisville Cardinals
Last
year Louisville was ranked in the top-10 nationally for 9 straight weeks,
until a late collapse with 3 straight losses against Houston, Kentucky, and
LSU saw them plummet to #21. I think that final ranking had a lot of negative
momentum, and Louisville's season, judged on the whole, was much better than
a #21 ranked team. Jackson's top-3 receiving targets are all gone, as is
talented RB Brandon Radcliff; but none of them were good enough that I think
of this offense regressing with them gone. Bobby Petrino is an excellent
coach, and with Lamar Jackson around I still expect this to be one of the
10-15 best offenses in the nation. Their defense might be even better, with
Stacey Thomas, Jaire Alexander, and Chucky Williams leading one of the best
secondaries in the ACC. 
12 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin has a *lot* of offensive improvement to do in 2017, and I think they can do most of it behind a line that returns 4 sophomores who are now juniors. I don't expect Alex Hornibrook to even be league average, and I don't expect that to matter much either. Wisconsin's defense is going to be fantastic, and their schedule is going to be easy enough that that's potentially all that they need. 
13 Clemson Tigers
HO-boy
clemson has some work to do this year. I don't know of another team with such
a total offensive turnover to deal with. Starting with generational-QB
Dehsaun Watson, 3 of his top-4 targets, and the starting running back. The
offensive line should still be great, and the WR depth is undeniable; but
this offense will not be the one Clemson fans have accustomed themselves to
the last 2 years. The defense, while maintaining a much closer form to 2016
than the offense, also has some questions to answer with 4 of the 7 elite
starters on last year's team headed to the NFL (Boulware, Johnson,
Tankersley, Watkins). I expect the defense to stay in the top-10, but with
trips to Louisville & Virginia Tech, NC State as well as Auburn & FSU
at home, I think the offensive reset will knock them down to a 9-3 type
season. 
14 Kansas State Wildcats
15 Texas Longhorns
Texas
was somehwere between a 7-5 and 8-4 quality team that was coached down to a
5-7 season; and a 7-5 team that returns 18 starters and has consistently
recruited at a top-10 level feels fine at 14th. I think if you control for
Strong's hapless coordinator-shuffling and on field coaching  you're looking at a team that very well
should be ranked preseason. 8 returning starters on offense - sure one of
them was D'onta Foreman, whose absence I think will make less of an impact
than most people would think. Add in Tom Herman who just spent consecutive
seasons coaching Houston to better records than their team was realistically
capable of, and yeah - I think this is a very 9-3 looking Texas team.
16 Washington State Cougars
17 Michigan Wolverines Holy attrition batman. I think Jim Harbaugh is a clear T5 coach in college football, and I think the obvious trio of Hurst/Winovich/Gary retooling a defensive line that was absolutely absurd last year can be 85% as good as they were up front last year. Those two facts are the only two things keeping Michigan ranked in my mind. The offensive line, the receivers, and the secondary are completely gutted. Michigan is going to have some ugly, ugly growing pains this year, and a 9-3 season would be a big win for them. 
18 Miami Hurricanes
In the
13 years Miami has been in the ACC they've had 0 10-win season and 0 Coastal
division championships. I sadly think both change this year as I predict the
Hurricanes to go 10-4. Miami's front 7 will be one of the 5-10 best in the
nation, but there are major questions in the run game and total
unpredictability at QB, and the secondary has to start over from scratch.
Those pieces should hold Miami back a bit, but they'll still be able to stop
run games and pass-rush with ease, and the offensive line should take a step
forward as well, and that alone will give them a major advantage over every
other team in the coastal.
19 LSU Tigers Ehhh. Ed Orgeron was a bad head coach. Maybe he's not anymore, but the last time he was a head coach he was a bad one - and I include his tenure at LSU in that statement. LSU has grabbed themselves an very good DC, an OC with perhaps more to prove than people would think, and a roster that lost a *lot* to the draft. I mean in terms of pure total talent heading out the door from last year, LSU trails only Michigan and maybe Alabama as far as losses go. LSU recruits like a national title contender, but for the aforementioned reasons, and because they play in a division where literally every game is a "losable" one, I'm going to mark this down as a 4-loss team. 
20 WKU Hilltoppers
21 TCU Horned Frogs
22 Mississippi State Bulldogs
23 Florida Gators
Last
year I predicted Florida's offense would rise to the level of competent and
the defense would take a step back from "elite" to "very
good" and two should mostly offset each other. It turns out I was a year
early on that prediction - as the offense was still very bad, and the defense
didn't miss a step with Hargreaves, Neal, Bullard and Morrison gone. This
year, the offense returns 9 starters and should see improvement from every
single position group, while the defense loses 8 starters and may have too
many issues with depth to maintain top-5 status. A 10-15th quality defense
and an offense that moves from the 90's to the 50's seems reasonable, but
that largely depends on competent QB play, something that has felt up in the
air at UF since Tebow graduated.
24 Colorado State Rams
25 NC State Wolfpack
Matthew
Dayes was good but not irreplacable. Other than that, NC State returns just
about everyone who was important. A sometimes-lackluster offense should move
forward as the passing game returns gobs of experience. This defensive line
could also be one of the best in the nation, and the defense as a whole looks
like it will be a top-10 unit.

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