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mickeyquicknumbers Ballot for 2017 Preseason

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Aug. 18, 2017, 2:39 p.m.

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide 7 Straight #1 recruiting classes + Nick Saban = who cares how many players they lose, assistant coaches they lose, or whether or not they're actually going to have a QB controversy next year. They were the presumptive #1 last, and the year before, and they will be this year as well.
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 2016 Ohio State survived one of the greatest exodus' of talent in recent college football history to go 11-1 in the regular season and make the playoffs with 16 new starters. The defense, which was one of the nations best last year, will be one of the nation's best this year. The offense - which was amazing for a while and then sputtered dramatically by season's end - should be better with an updated coaching staff. 
3 Florida State Seminoles Oh fun! A preseason #1 v. a preseason #3. The Seminoles should be challenging one or two other teams (Ohio State, Alabama) for the best defense in the nation this year, and one of the best defensive lines as well. They return 9 starters and get back the nation's best safety in Derwin James. The offense has a few more question marks around running back and both tackles, but they're questions that will likely have very talented answers. Truth be told Francois needs to take a real step forward for them to earn this spot, but suggesting a freshman QB might take a step forward is not that unrealistic.
4 Washington Huskies Washington seems to be getting overlooked a lot for preseason hype this year. I'm not sure why. Jake Browning was not far behind Sam Darnold last year as a true sophomore, Miles Gaskin looked every bit as good as Ronald Jones, and the Huskies return two very good receivers in Pettis/McClatcher and have fewer questions across their offensive line. Pair that with likely the best defensive line in the Pac12 (sorry Utah) and one of the best linebackers in the nation in Azeem Victor, and you've got yourself a bona fide contender. The secondary is a question after some pesky attrition to the NFL & the graduation of Kevin King, but overall this team looks ready to run it back for another go at the playoffs.
5 Stanford Cardinal Oh yes Stanford indeed - Christian McCaffrey is gone, but truth be told there was not much dropoff between him and Bryce Love when the two switched in and out. QB play was a major problem for them last year, and it might be again this year, but I'm going to go out on a limb in picking them to bounce back strong offensively anyways. Stanford has a ridiculous amount of talent at QB and I expect someone to emerge from the pile. The offensive line, at times a weakness last year, should once again become a strength for the team - with four returners and the two best linemen recruits in the nation coming in as freshman. I expect 2017 to look much closer to 2015 than 2016.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State yay! This is could very well be the best offense in the country in 2017, competing for that title with the team ranked directly behind them. Saquon Barkley, Mr. McSorley, and a deep slew of pass catchers are going to keep this offense as electric as it finished 2016, and with a general step forward at every position group on defense (except maybe edge rushers) I think this is the obvious team to challenge Ohio State in 2017.
7 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma fits neatly behind Penn State on the "best offenses in the nation that have maybe some big questions on defense" - I put them slightly behind Penn State because they're in a conference where elite offenses can be neutered by other elite offenses a little easier. but still, the best QB/WR tandem in CFB paired with a potential bigtime breakout RB Justice Hill, and *enough* collective experience back that you want to believe this defense will improve marginally - altogether is pretty sweet. 
8 Auburn Tigers Sure. Count me in as being cautiously aboard the Auburn hype train. After consecutive years of dramatically underperforming (14/15) and one year of just barely performing (2016) I think Auburn finally has the formula for a good season. They landed the most important recruit in the nation last year: a QB who has proven he can thrive in a college offense, and one with (just barely) enough experience to the system Malzahn made his bones with, I think it's more likely than not Pettway/Stidham make Auburns offense electric-ish. The defense will miss Carl Lawson, and I'm still skeptical about the long-term viability of Kevin Steele, but 8th feels right for now. 
9 USC Trojans Darnold and Ronald (almost an anagram) are the obvious "reasons to love USC in 2017". RJII is poised for an all-PAC12 type season as a rusher, and Sam Darnold is earning #1 pick hype after his freshman year; count me in on the hype for both of these players. The rest of the team has a collective one too many questions that I think are being overlooked. Darnold's sophomore year is going to have to rely on a new receiving group after losing his top-2 receivers, including the fantastic Juju-Smith-Schuster; he's also going to have to do it after losing two 1st team and one 2nd team all-PAC12 linemen - unquestionably the 3 best linemen on the team last year. That's someonewhat alarming. I think for those reasons the Trojan offense will not quite be the powerhouse that some expect it to be, so here they sit.
10 Oklahoma Sooners Oklahoma has a LOT going for them. Yes they replace basically their entire skill position depth chart, and I think that will set them back a hair, but returning one of the best OL's in the nation and a heisman caliber QB is going to be. The defense may not having many budding all-american types, but they'll be the most experienced they've been in a long while. Altogether I would have considered putting them 5th, above Okie St., but a coaching change scares me, especially for a coach that is this young. I know that everythin he's touched has turned to gold in his relatively short coaching career - but managing a major program is difficult to do, so I'm hedging by moving oklahoma down to here. 
11 Louisville Cardinals Last year Louisville was ranked in the top-10 nationally for 9 straight weeks, until a late collapse with 3 straight losses against Houston, Kentucky, and LSU saw them plummet to #21. I think that final ranking had a lot of negative momentum, and Louisville's season, judged on the whole, was much better than a #21 ranked team. Jackson's top-3 receiving targets are all gone, as is talented RB Brandon Radcliff; but none of them were good enough that I think of this offense regressing with them gone. Bobby Petrino is an excellent coach, and with Lamar Jackson around I still expect this to be one of the 10-15 best offenses in the nation. Their defense might be even better, with Stacey Thomas, Jaire Alexander, and Chucky Williams leading one of the best secondaries in the ACC. 
12 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin has a *lot* of offensive improvement to do in 2017, and I think they can do most of it behind a line that returns 4 sophomores who are now juniors. I don't expect Alex Hornibrook to even be league average, and I don't expect that to matter much either. Wisconsin's defense is going to be fantastic, and their schedule is going to be easy enough that that's potentially all that they need. 
13 Clemson Tigers HO-boy clemson has some work to do this year. I don't know of another team with such a total offensive turnover to deal with. Starting with generational-QB Dehsaun Watson, 3 of his top-4 targets, and the starting running back. The offensive line should still be great, and the WR depth is undeniable; but this offense will not be the one Clemson fans have accustomed themselves to the last 2 years. The defense, while maintaining a much closer form to 2016 than the offense, also has some questions to answer with 4 of the 7 elite starters on last year's team headed to the NFL (Boulware, Johnson, Tankersley, Watkins). I expect the defense to stay in the top-10, but with trips to Louisville & Virginia Tech, NC State as well as Auburn & FSU at home, I think the offensive reset will knock them down to a 9-3 type season. 
14 Kansas State Wildcats
15 Texas Longhorns Texas was somehwere between a 7-5 and 8-4 quality team that was coached down to a 5-7 season; and a 7-5 team that returns 18 starters and has consistently recruited at a top-10 level feels fine at 14th. I think if you control for Strong's hapless coordinator-shuffling and on field coaching  you're looking at a team that very well should be ranked preseason. 8 returning starters on offense - sure one of them was D'onta Foreman, whose absence I think will make less of an impact than most people would think. Add in Tom Herman who just spent consecutive seasons coaching Houston to better records than their team was realistically capable of, and yeah - I think this is a very 9-3 looking Texas team.
16 Washington State Cougars
17 Michigan Wolverines Holy attrition batman. I think Jim Harbaugh is a clear T5 coach in college football, and I think the obvious trio of Hurst/Winovich/Gary retooling a defensive line that was absolutely absurd last year can be 85% as good as they were up front last year. Those two facts are the only two things keeping Michigan ranked in my mind. The offensive line, the receivers, and the secondary are completely gutted. Michigan is going to have some ugly, ugly growing pains this year, and a 9-3 season would be a big win for them. 
18 Miami Hurricanes In the 13 years Miami has been in the ACC they've had 0 10-win season and 0 Coastal division championships. I sadly think both change this year as I predict the Hurricanes to go 10-4. Miami's front 7 will be one of the 5-10 best in the nation, but there are major questions in the run game and total unpredictability at QB, and the secondary has to start over from scratch. Those pieces should hold Miami back a bit, but they'll still be able to stop run games and pass-rush with ease, and the offensive line should take a step forward as well, and that alone will give them a major advantage over every other team in the coastal.
19 LSU Tigers Ehhh. Ed Orgeron was a bad head coach. Maybe he's not anymore, but the last time he was a head coach he was a bad one - and I include his tenure at LSU in that statement. LSU has grabbed themselves an very good DC, an OC with perhaps more to prove than people would think, and a roster that lost a *lot* to the draft. I mean in terms of pure total talent heading out the door from last year, LSU trails only Michigan and maybe Alabama as far as losses go. LSU recruits like a national title contender, but for the aforementioned reasons, and because they play in a division where literally every game is a "losable" one, I'm going to mark this down as a 4-loss team. 
20 WKU Hilltoppers
21 TCU Horned Frogs
22 Mississippi State Bulldogs
23 Florida Gators Last year I predicted Florida's offense would rise to the level of competent and the defense would take a step back from "elite" to "very good" and two should mostly offset each other. It turns out I was a year early on that prediction - as the offense was still very bad, and the defense didn't miss a step with Hargreaves, Neal, Bullard and Morrison gone. This year, the offense returns 9 starters and should see improvement from every single position group, while the defense loses 8 starters and may have too many issues with depth to maintain top-5 status. A 10-15th quality defense and an offense that moves from the 90's to the 50's seems reasonable, but that largely depends on competent QB play, something that has felt up in the air at UF since Tebow graduated.
24 Colorado State Rams
25 NC State Wolfpack Matthew Dayes was good but not irreplacable. Other than that, NC State returns just about everyone who was important. A sometimes-lackluster offense should move forward as the passing game returns gobs of experience. This defensive line could also be one of the best in the nation, and the defense as a whole looks like it will be a top-10 unit.

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