Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Nov. 9, 2026, 7:14 p.m.

Overall Rationale: These rankings are a calculated Strength of Record rating. They are not predictive, but they are derived from an underlying predictive metric.

This ranks teams by how hard their record would be to match. It's a measure of what they've achieved, not what we predict they'll do.

For each team, the model takes an average top-12 team and imagines it playing the team in question's exact schedule: same opponents, same sites, with opponents rated by the same opponent-adjusted system used for the main predictive rankings. It then computes the chance that this hypothetical strong team would finish with a record at least as good as the team being rated. A lower percentage means a more impressive resume: it means even an elite team would struggle to match what this team has actually done.

On the underlying predictive rating: I run a algorithm called ExTAN (https://externaltangents.com/ExTAN/). That algorithm is predictive and bases its formula on in-season results (scores, home/away, and opponent). That algorithm historically rates well against metrics tracked on PredictionTracker.com. Those predictive ratings are used to calculate the Strength of Record used in these rankings.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	UCLA Bruins	24.4%
2	Georgia Bulldogs	36.3%
3	Utah Utes	39.0%
4	Miami Hurricanes	44.2%
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	46.2%
6	Kentucky Wildcats	50.2%
7	Indiana Hoosiers	54.3%
8	Texas Longhorns	55.0%
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	55.5%
10	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	67.2%
11	Tennessee Volunteers	75.1%
12	Ole Miss Rebels	77.3%
13	BYU Cougars	78.3%
14	Iowa Hawkeyes	79.7%
15	Ohio State Buckeyes	80.1%
16	USC Trojans	80.4%
17	Boise State Broncos	80.4%
18	Texas Tech Red Raiders	80.5%
19	Oregon Ducks	84.3%
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	86.8%
21	Houston Cougars	89.0%
22	LSU Tigers	90.6%
23	Wisconsin Badgers	91.2%
24	Missouri Tigers	92.7%
25	Florida Gators	93.7%

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	UCLA Bruins	0.17
2	Georgia Bulldogs	0.00
3	Utah Utes	-0.12
4	Miami Hurricanes	0.08
5	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.26
6	Kentucky Wildcats	1.69
7	Indiana Hoosiers	0.00
8	Texas Longhorns	0.00
9	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-2.52
10	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	0.00
11	Tennessee Volunteers	0.00
12	Ole Miss Rebels	1.46
13	BYU Cougars	0.00
14	Iowa Hawkeyes	0.07
15	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.56
16	USC Trojans	0.00
17	Boise State Broncos	0.00
18	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-1.56
19	Oregon Ducks	0.00
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	0.00
21	Houston Cougars	-1.02
22	LSU Tigers	0.00
23	Wisconsin Badgers	1.89
24	Missouri Tigers	0.02
25	Florida Gators	0.14

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Arizona Wildcats	1.11
New Mexico Lobos	0.48
SMU Mustangs	0.17

Total Score: 13.32